Astral Ltd. share price target

Our interaction with managements and dealers indicates significant prebuying activity of consumer goods during January-February 2020 on fears of supply related issues from China. While companies have secured supplies to avoid any disturbance in sales in Q4FY20, demand was negatively impacted in March 2020 owing to holiday and post that lockdown across countries. We also believe a late recovery in demand for consumer goods will also impact Q1FY21 performance due to 1) shortage of workers (due to heavy migration), 2) shift in focus on essential goods compared to discretionary products and 3) streamlining of supply chain....

The reported sales of Astral Poly Technik Ltd. (ASTRAL) grew by 5.4% YoY (3.6% below estimate) to INR 664cr.

Astral reported strong volume growth of 15% in the piping segment during Q3FY20 despite extended monsoons. The company witnessed a strong recovery in volume growth during November-December 2019. Astral has further guided at strong demand for pipes in Q4FY20 (with ~24% volume growth in January 2020) supported by market share gain (from regional, unorganised players) after the government imposed anti-dumping duty on CPVC resin import from China and Korea. We model piping segment volume CAGR of ~15% (FY19-22E) in line with management estimates supported...

We met the management of Astral Poly Technik (Astral) to discuss 1) Domestic pipes industry and competitive landscape in PVC and CPVC pipes, 2) Astral's adhesive segment and growth levers, 3) Outlook on sales and margins improvement, 4) Capacity expansion plans in near future, and 5) Further expansion in allied products through inorganic expansion, if any. Astral is a leading player of domestic organized pipes industry and over the years it has established itself as a complete plumbing solutions provider. The company's innovative and superior products offerings, pan India distribution network, strategically located plants and focus on branding are major...

The reported sales of Astral Poly Technik Ltd. (ASTRAL) have grown 7.8% YoY (8.6% below our estimate) to INR 678cr.

Astral reported consolidated revenue growth of 9% YoY in Q2FY20 slightly lower than our estimate mainly on account of a decline in revenue of adhesive segment by ~10% YoY. However, piping segment (standalone) recorded strong revenue growth of 14% led by volume growth of ~17% YoY (including Rex, volume growth was higher at 27% YoY). The strong volume growth came on the back of strong demand of CPVC, PVC pipes along with ~8% YoY price hike in the CPVC pipe category. The management guided for strong volume growth in the piping segment (I-direct estimate:...

Astral Poly Technik's (ASTRA) consolidated revenue grew 8.5% YoY in Q2FY20, aided by piping segment volume growth of 27% (~17% ex-Rex Poly).

India Economic Outlook: Lower rates, liquidity to drive cyclical recovery. Plastic Products: Anti-dumping duty on CPVC Astral Poly a key beneficiary

India's finance ministry has imposed provisional anti-dumping duty (ADD) on CPVC resin/compounds imported from China and Korea for a period of six months starting 26 August.

The company's focus on capacity expansion in piping segment, ramping up capacity utilization in adhesive segment and restructuring of distribution network would be key growth levers for Astral. The company's overseas operations at UK, USA and Kenya are seeing traction and are expected to grow at healthy double digit in volume terms. We forecast net sales/EBITDA/PAT to grow at a CAGR of 19%/20.7%/27.1%. Maintain HOLD...