Astral Ltd. share price target

In the extremely volatile PVC pricing context Astral’s performance was decent though revenue was up only 0.5% to a muted Rs13.7bn.

Demand headwinds eased by healthy plumbing margins

Continuous EBITDA deterioration due to low PVC Prices, and higher PEx multiples are not sustainable. Therefore, we retain our HOLD rating with TP Rs 1,800/share.

We retain BUY on Astral with a revised PT of Rs. 2,150, factoring downwardly revised estimates and valuation multiple owing to near-term demand sluggishness.

Misses estimates on weak pipe volumes (-2.5% YoY) and continued subdued performance of SEAL IT & paints business

We interacted with Astral Ltd (Astral’s) management. Demand in pipe market was muted in Jul–Aug’24 due to volatility in PVC prices.

We have Hold on the stock

In Q4FY24, Astral reported strong pipes volume growth of 22.8% YoY (3-year CAGR of 16.3%). Consol. revenue grew 7.9% YoY with pipes/adhesives segments growing 8.1%/7.3% YoY.

The management has guided for 15% consolidated revenue growth for the next 5 years. We have HOLD on the stock.

Plumbing volume shines; outlook promising

EBITDA miss by 6% compared to our estimate on continued weak performance of paints and adhesives segment

NAM: Strong growth but upside capped cut to HOLD. APOLP: Disappointing result on all fronts. ITC: Cigarette and paperboard businesses disappoint. LT: Order inflow guidance raised; maintain BUY. NTPC: Normal quarter, aggressive expansion; maintain BUY. MRCO: Domestic business still lacklustre. UTIAM: Core earnings miss estimates. ASTRA: Mixed quarter, guidance broadly intact

The management has g The management has guided 15% consolidated revenue growth for the next 5 years.uided 15% consolidated revenue growth for the next 5 years. Recommendation: HOLD

Topline in line at Rs 13.7bn; miss at EBITDA level on one-off expense and MTM inventory loss

Strong volume growth in plumbing; outlook promising