Petronet LNG Ltd. share price target

We increase our FY22E estimates by 12% to factor in-take or pay charges booked in Q3 along with higher spot margins. FY23/24E estimates are increased by ~2% as we make minor changes in volume assumptions. PLNG reported better than expected results with EBIDTA/PAT of Rs17.3bn (+34%Q/Q; PLe Rs10.1bn) and Rs11.4bn (+39%Q/Q, PLe Rs6.2bn), as the...

Gradual ramp up in new capex to remove overhang: Management reiterated that it will go for gradual ramp up of LNG stations and Compressed Biogas Plants depending on demand and project IRRs. This removes an...

Petronet LNG (PLNG) reported a beat on our estimates, led by higher-thanestimated throughput (Dahej back at >100% at 102%, after being subdued for the last three quarters, with Kochi utilization robust at ~24%). The company expects spot LNG prices to cool off post the winter season. Currently, huge demand is seen from China and Japan, with supply constraints resulting in a spike in spot LNG prices. Despite the immediate challenges, the management remains confident about achieving >900tbtu in volumes for FY22 (~96% utilization, i.e., flat YoY supported by tied up contracts). Our numbers are in line with the...

LNG demand is expected to grow further in fertilizer, refining and transport sectors. Petronet's overall performance is recovering to preCOVID levels. We remain positive on the stock with strong momentum in demand/volumes and healthy pipeline. Hence, we reiterate our BUY rating with a revised TP of Rs. 272 based on 12.0x FY23E adj. EPS. Strong performance supported by demand recovery Consolidated revenues for Q1FY22 grew 13.5% QoQ (+76.1% YoY) to Rs. 8,598cr with volumes maintained at 209 TBTU levels (vs. 190 TBTU in Q1FY21, 218 TBTU in Q4FY21) on opening up of economy, revival of gas demand, and ease of COVID-19...

Petronet LNG is India's leading play in import of LNG in the country and will be a beneficiary of the government's aim to increase the share of natural gas in the energy basket to 15% over the long term The 17.5 mmtpa Dahej terminal has been booked for 15.75 mmtpa under long term, thus providing visibility to long term volumes. Increase in Kochi terminal volumes on commissioning of Kochi-Mangalore pipeline...

PLNG's long term contract demand remains robust while spot LNG accounts for ~4% of volumes, unlikely to be hit by jump in prices. We leave our FY22/23E estimates unchanged. PLNG reported lower than expected results with EBIDTA/PAT of Rs10.5bn (-3%Q/Q; PLe Rs12.3bn) and Rs6.4bn (+2%Q/Q PLe Rs7.8bn), due to lower regas volumes. PLNG is a play on India's rising LNG imports and we like PLNG's business model, given high...

Petronet LNG (PLNG)'s numbers were in line with our estimates, with volumes at 209tbtu and utilization rates at Dahej/Kochi at 88%/24% in 1QFY22. Kochi was largely unaffected, while Dahej was impacted by the second COVID wave. The management expects the utilization rate at Kochi to be ramped up by ~30% by end-FY22. On the other hand, Dahej would continue to operate at over 95% owing to tied-up contracts (16.5mmtpa of 17.5mmtpa). We remain positive on the gas story in India as the market share of gas in the primary energy mix is just 6%. It is expected to almost double by CY30...

Petronet LNG's total volumes were marginally above our estimates. Total sales volumes came in at 218 tbtu compared to 219 tbtu in Q4FY20 (flattish YoY) and 235 tbtu in Q3FY21 (down 7.2% QoQ). While regasification volume at 98 tbtu, better than estimate of 90 tbtu, it declined 8.4% QoQ as higher spot LNG prices led to a dip in demand, mainly from the power sector. The management said that Dahej utilisation is at 88% currently. On account of reduction in demand, we expect regasification volume to remain low in the current quarter. Accordingly, we revise estimates and expect total volume...

Operational fundamentals remain unchanged; capex high on aspirations Motilal Oswal values your support in the Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2021 for India Research, Sales, Corporate Access and...

Rising domestic supplies from RIL/ONGC are unlikely to impact PLNG but new LNG terminals without any LT contracts, in our view. We lower our FY22/23E estimates by 16%/4%to factor volume dip from high spot LNG prices and lockdown restrictions. PLNG is a play on India's rising LNG imports supported by soft spot LNG prices. We like PLNG's business model given high earnings visibility and see limited competition to its wellentrenched reach in the LNG business. However, recent change in their...