Petronet LNG Ltd. share price target

PLNG’s 3QFY26 EBITDA (adjusted for labor codes impact of INR254m) came in 7% above estimate at INR12.2b (flat YoY). EBITDA adjusted for UoP provisioning and waiver stood 21% above our estimate.

Revenue and EBITDA decreased by 8.7%YoY and 3.9%YoY, on lower blended realisations offset by volume growth of 2.1%YoY, respectively

The management expects LNG demand to increase in India, on the back of a rise in the sourcing of natural gas across industries. Also, the expansion of the Dahej capacity is on track, with commissioning by March 2026, and discussions are underway with existing and new suppliers to secure additional volume. KochiBengaluru pipeline connectivity is expected to be completed in FY26 as well, which should gradually improve utilisation levels. The company anticipates a significant acceleration in the execution of a petchem project in H2FY26 as well. Its Gopalpur terminal project is also progressing well, with land acquisition nearing completion;...

PLNG’s 2QFY26 revenue/EBITDA came in line with our estimate at INR110b/11.2b. The company booked additional provisions of INR1.3b against UoP dues during the quarter.

Performance was below expectations due to lower-than-expected volume performance. Volumes decreased by 4.4%YoY

We recently upgraded PLNG to BUY (Tide is turning, slowly) on inexpensive valuations and strong upcoming capacity growth.

Total volume stood at 220TBtu (Ple 205 TBtu, -16% YoY, +7% QoQ). However, the company took an impairment of Rs1.4bn during the quarter on account of take-or-pay. As a result, despite higher-than-estimated volume, the company...

PLNG’s 1QFY26 revenue came in line, while EBITDA was 5% below our estimate at INR11.6b. Marketing margins missed our estimate as spot volumes were nil for the quarter, owing largely to muted power demand. PAT came in line with our estimate as other income was above estimate.

We upgrade PLNG to Buy with a DCF-based TP of INR410/sh. According to our DCF analysis (WACC: 11.2%), at CMP, PLNG is pricing in an unrealistic scenario of a 20% decline in tariff at both the Dahej and Kochi terminals in FY28.

In Q4FY25, Petronet's consolidated revenue declined 10.7% YoY to Rs. 12,316cr, primarily due to delayed capacity expansion and lower volume processed. The Dahej terminal processed 189 trillion British thermal units (TBTU) of LNG, a 13.7%...

PLNG reported an EBITDA of Rs15.1bn (+21% QoQ, +37% YoY, PLe: Rs10.8bn, BBGe: Rs11.8bn), while PAT came in at Rs10.7bn (+23% QoQ, +45% YoY, PLe: Rs7.3bn, BBGe: Rs8.2bn). Ther has been a reversal of Rs2.3bn included in the EBITDA for the quarter. Total volume declined 12% YoY and 10% QoQ to 205TBtu mainly due to shutdown of few fertilizer plants and lower offtake due...

Petronet LNG (PLNG) reported 16%/13% YoY/QoQ increase in adj. EBITDA to INR 12.8bn and +21%/+19% YoY/QoQ change in adj. PAT to INR 8.9bn. Reported PAT was INR 10.7bn with an INR 2.3bn reversal of UoP provision.

Petronet LNG’s 3QFY25 revenue came in below our estimates, as total
volumes stood below our estimates, primarily due to lower third-party cargos. While EBITDA was also marginally below estimates, higher-thanexpected other income led to PAT coming in-line with our estimates.

PLNG posted Q3FY25 adj SA EBITDA of Rs12.8bn and APAT of Rs8.9bn, which were in-line. Provision on Use or Pay (UoP) was Rs1.5bn, while UoP income booked for CY24 was Rs1.17bn.

Q2 underlying EBITDA broadly in line factoring in UOP adjustments; Dahej utilisation can hold up in Q3 if LNG prices remain range bound

Petronet LNG (PLNG) 2QFY25 EBITDA came in 9% below our estimates at INR12b. Dahej utilization was down 9pp QoQ at 102%, while Kochi utilization stood at 22% (flat QoQ).

We upgrade PLNG to BUY from Add and raise our TP by 16% to Rs425/sh. We reiterate our positive view on the back of a steady outlook and attractive valuation.