2025 was a record year for precious metals, with gold and silver soaring to new highs. Gold rose by 76% and silver surged by about 170% over the year, driven by global uncertainty, central bank buying, industrial demand for silver, and a weaker rupee, which amplified gains for Indian investors. Gold extended the rally to a fresh all-time high of Rs 1,58,339 on January 21, 2026.

Rising prices are shaping expectations for Q3FY26 earnings. For many sectors, precious metals are directly driving profits, margins, and stock prices.

Nitin Jain, Senior Research Analyst at Bonanza, said, “Higher gold prices favour gold-loan NBFCs, as stronger collateral supports loan growth and keeps risks low.” He added that consumers are adjusting to high prices by buying lighter, lower-karat, or studded jewellery. This shift helps jewellers protect margins, even though it limits volume growth.

Axis Direct analysts say, "Every 10% rise in metal prices can lift EBITDA for primary miners by nearly 25% due to operating leverage." This strengthens balance sheets, enabling faster debt reduction and higher shareholder payouts.

The impact however, is uneven. Gold sellers, gold-backed lenders, and silver producers are seeing faster profit growth, while sectors that consume silver as a raw material are facing margin pressure. This edition of Chart of the Week looks at how the rally is reshaping earnings across jewellery, gold loans, mining, and solar energy.

Jewellery: High prices drive margins, not volumes

High gold prices do not necessarily expand overall demand, since customers trade down to lighter jewellery or exchange old gold, limiting fresh purchases. Profits then depend on novelty and inventory speed.

Thangamayil Jewellery is expected to report profit growth of nearly 54% in Q3, helped by fast-moving inventory and demand in its core markets. The stock has more than doubled over the past year, reflecting confidence in its cash-flow discipline.

At Titan, the pace of new customer additions has slowed, but higher ticket sizes and demand for gold coins as an investment product have supported sales. Gold exchange schemes have further softened the impact of high prices by encouraging customers to recycle old jewellery.

Kalyan Jewellers expects revenue to rise around 40% YoY, with profits growing faster, as quicker inventory turnover and strong festive demand lift sales. But the stress points are visible at PN Gadgil Jewellers, where profits are expected to decline despite revenue growth. Higher store expansion costs and lower-margin bullion sales have weighed on earnings.

Gold loans: High prices mean lower risk and better returns

Rising gold prices are strengthening gold loan businesses. When gold prices go up, the collateral value of gold-based loans rises in tandem. This reduces lender losses and allows customers to borrow more without pledging additional gold.

Higher prices also reduce credit costs. Even if a borrower defaults, the lender can recover the loan by selling the gold. This improves margins without additional risk.

IIFL Finance is expected to report a 967% profit growth in Q3, largely due to a low base last year, when regulatory curbs on gold loans hurt earnings. Higher gold prices have accelerated loan disbursements and improved recovery values.

Muthoot Finance presents an interesting case. Revenue is expected to dip as loan growth normalises and last year’s one-off recovery gains fade. However, profits are still likely to rise due to lower credit costs and stable margins. Managing Director, George Alexander Muthoot said that tighter norms on unsecured lending and rising gold prices are pushing borrowers toward gold loans.

Manappuram Finance's projected profit growth is constrained by lower revenue from microfinance and unsecured lending despite demand for gold loans. Management says disbursements in these segments have been deliberately curtailed to protect asset quality. Its stock is up nearly 55% over one year, but the upside has lagged peers due to its mixed lending profile.

Silver boom: Miners like Hindustan Zinc profit while manufacturers face pressure

The silver rally has created a sharp split. If you dig silver out of the ground, you are winning. If you use it to build products, you are struggling.

Mining companies have benefited as production costs change little in the short term, while selling prices have surged. Silver now contributes about 24% (up 7 percentage points YoY) of Hindustan Zinc’s Q3 revenue and roughly 44% of profits. This led to Q3 profits beating Forecaster estimates by 11%.

Vedanta follows the same pattern. Profit growth is expected to be around 80% YoY, driven by higher metal prices rather than higher production. NMDC, with limited exposure to precious metals, is expected to deliver only modest growth, reflecting its dependence on iron ore rather than silver.

Solar companies sit on the opposite side of the silver boom. The metal is a critical input for solar cells, and usage cannot be reduced quickly. Kalpesh Kalthia, MD of Kosol Energie, says that solar modules constitute about 50% of a project's cost. Fixed-price contracts limit the ability to pass on higher costs, keeping margins under pressure.

Waaree Energies has managed better so far due to its scale, diversified order book, and tighter sourcing strategies. Analysts note that manufacturers are increasingly locking in raw material costs against confirmed orders, which helps manage volatility but does not eliminate pressure immediately.

Premier Energies is facing this same pressure Despite profit growth of over 71% in Q2FY26, the stock is down over 39% in a year amid concerns about silver pricing trends, especially as capacity ramps up. While backward integration and scale should lower costs over time, near-term earnings remain exposed to silver price volatility until these benefits fully materialise.

Adani Green Energy is managing better by improving output from existing assets rather than relying heavily on new projects. As an independent power producer that owns and operates power plants, it faces lower exposure to metal price inflation once projects are up and running. Long-term power purchase agreements help shield cash flows from short-term swings in solar equipment costs.