We upgrade NMDC to BUY from ADD as: 1) Sales volume in FY24E may breach the 32 40mnte range; 2) long-term volume visibility is clearer as the roadmap for 100mtpa by FY30, though aspirational, is being worked on; 3) commercial mining in Odisha is progressively getting undermined, resulting in more opportunity; and 4) RoE may improve further from the current level of 22% as mining business takes the centre stage and steel plant is demerged.