We model three scenarios for Grasim as (1) it succeeds and gains market share of 20% by FY30 but hurts industry EBITDA margin by 150bps, (2) Moderate success for Grasim with 10% market share by FY30 and industry EBITDA margin decline by 250bps and (3) Grasim fails to gain market share more than 5% by FY30 but indulges in price war and hurts industry EBITDA margin by 400bps.
Private life insurers reported 18%/13% YoY growth in individual/total APE in Feb’23 and 18/19% YoY in 11MFY23, respectively. Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) reported a decline of 19% YoY in total APE in Feb’23 but has grown strong 20% YoY in 11MFY23. Overall / individual sum assured growth has been 24/7% in FY23- TD for private life insurers.