Oil India (OIL) Q4FY20 reported first-time ever negative EBITDA on the back of lower volume and realization. However, due to higher other income and deferred tax writeback OIL reported 51.5% YoY growth in net profit. Revenue was down 16% YoY to Rs26 bn owing to 3.4%/8.3% YoY decline in oil/gas production volume and 15.5%/3.2% drop in oil/gas realization in Q4FY20. We expect oil production to fall by 2% in FY21 and stable in FY22 due to natural decline. Also, gas volume to dip by 5% for FY21 before reaching to FY20 levels in FY22 on the back of Baghjan fire, flood and Covid-19. We forecast crude oil price (Brent) to average to US40/bbl and US$50/bbl in FY21 and FY22 vs US$60.9/bbl in FY20. We value it's core business at Rs55 (4.5x EV/EBITDA) and Rs58 for...