8 February 2020 Tata Steels (TATA) third-quarter result reflects the challenges faced by the industry, with consol. EBITDA/ton of INR3,614 dropping to the lowest level in the past 15 quarters due to a sharp decline in steel prices. Prices have recovered sharply over the past three months, strengthening the margin outlook. Given the challenges in the European business, we cut our FY20/21 EBITDA estimates marginally and maintain INR38.2b) in 3QFY20 due to weak steel spreads and higher exports from India. PAT loss was at INR7.0b (our EBITDA/t was down 6% QoQ at INR11,020 due to lower realization (-11% QoQ to INR44,522/t) and the higher share of margin- dilutive exports (18%). EBITDA, however, increased 9% QoQ to INR37.7b, driven by strong 15% QoQ growth in volumes (largely exports). We expect EBITDA/t to improve substantially in 4Q as the price hikes have materialized in the past three months we expect INR13,800 in 4QFY20.