We believe that the current valuation multiples (8.7x EV/e FY22) are already pricing in a full privatisation scenario for BPCL. Only potential improvement in earnings and cash flows can drive re-rating of stock. But this will obviously be realized with a lag and is contingent upon the private player's ability to bring about efficiencies. Our SOTP target is Rs 451/sh (5.5x Sep-21E EV/e for standalone refining, 6.0x Sep-21E EV/e for marketing and pipeline business and Rs 139/sh for other investments). Maintain SELL. Owing to a subdued refining performance in Q2, BPCL failed to impress us yet again. Moreover, BPCLs core EBITDA (adjusted for inventory and forex gains/losses) growth will lag peers over FY20-22 in the absence of refinery expansion.