We expect BPCL's core EBITDA (adjusted for inventory and forex gains/losses) growth to lag peers' in the absence of refining capacity expansion. Besides, the interest cost will increase as a consequence to jump in debt. We downgrade to NEUTRAL with a SOTP target of Rs 409/sh (5.5x Mar 21E EV/e for standalone refining, 6.0x Mar 21E EV/e for marketing and pipeline businesses plus Rs 129/sh for other investments). We like BPCL owing to its impeccable refining assets. However, it is in the weakest spot among OMCs, with no refining capacity addition in foreseeable future and increase in interest cost on account of increasing debt. Hence, we downgrade to NEUTRAL.