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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks Outperforming the Index …
    03 Nov 2021

    Stocks Outperforming the Index Over the Week, Post Results

    Stocks which outperformed the Nifty50 index post results
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    The Baseline
    03 Nov 2021
    Five Stocks Outperforming the Nifty50 Post Results

    Five Stocks Outperforming the Nifty50 Post Results

    As results for the September quarter come in, we are seeing key stocks outperform the index post their earnings announcements. This screener looks at Nifty500 stocks that announced results at least one week ago, and have since beaten the Nifty50 index. While there are a good number of  IT stocks present (no surprise there), several old school businesses also turn up in the list, including auto, cement, and consumer electronics. We pick five stocks out of the 80+ present in the screener.

    1) Orient Electric: Consumer electronics companies are back on the investor radar post Covid, and appliances business Orient Electric is an interesting outperformer, substantially beating the index post its results (it beat the Nifty50 by over 14.8% in the past week). Revenues for the company grew 37% YoY, exceeding analyst estimates. And despite increases in commodity costs during the quarter, the company saw strong segment growth especially in the home and office space.

    2) TVS Motor Company: After a bruising year with lockdowns sinking demand for the auto sector, this two wheeler business saw strong topline growth, and its capex plans remain intact. TVS has maintained its capex guidance of  Rs 8 billion for FY22E, funded internally from accruals. The bullishness of the outlook is being driven by EV investments, new launches, and a focus on exports. But in the short term, dragons remain in the form of cost increases and supply chain shortages.

    3) TCI Express: This logistics company has been another index outperformer, beating the Nifty50 by 11.2% over the past week. The company has been working on building a moat in its sorting centres and transportation network with IT investments, to halve processing time and speed up shipments. Its efforts in B2B offerings like pharma cold chains have also boosted its outlook with analysts. "Newer offerings expected to post EBITDA margins in 22-25% range in medium to long term," according to ICICISec.

    4) L&T Technology Services: The IT companies under the L&T umbrella are all the rage. And LTTS is no exception, continuing to stoke investor interest by beating the index by 9.7% this week. The company saw its highest ever EBIT margins of 18.4% in the September quarter, despite the cost pressures in the industry. LTTS has raised its USD revenue growth guidance to 19- 20% from the previously stated 15-17%.

    5) Ultratech Cement: This cement company is seeing bullishness from investors, outperforming the index by over 8% this week, and appears to be well-positioned to take advantage of demand recovery post the monsoon. The extended rains were a dampener (despite which Ultratech's volumes grew 8% YoY in Q2), but now the management believes that spending will see a strong resurgence, with the push for rural housing amid healthy government crop procurement.

    See the full screener.

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    The Baseline
    29 Oct 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. SpiceJet: This airline operator’s grip on domestic passenger air traffic is loosening, which could benefit its listed rival. In September 2021, domestic airlines carried over 70 lakh passengers, 90% of pre-second wave levels. However, SpiceJet’s September passenger traffic recovered to just 60% of pre-second wave levels. Meanwhile, IndiGo’s (operated by InterGlobe Aviation) recovery was 95% of pre-second wave levels. SpiceJet’s market share in the domestic passenger airline market dropped to 8.5% in September from 12.8% in March, the seventh consecutive month of market share decline.

    2. Tatva Chintan Pharma Chem: This newly listed specialty chemical maker’s stock rallied after its Q2 results. Its Q2 revenue doubled YoY to Rs 123 crore with a nine-fold increase in net profits to Rs 32.4 crore. In one week, the stock’s price gained nearly 24%. On October 27 during the peak of the price rise, it was trading with volumes seven times the average volumes since listing on July 29. The stock is now trading at twice the IPO issue price of Rs 1,083 per share and 12.5% higher than its listing price of Rs 2,603 per share.

    3. Oberoi Realty: This realty company’s stock is down by nearly 10% in two weeks as the realty market’s momentum moderates. Earlier in October, the company announced a YoY doubling of its Q2FY22 sales bookings to Rs 828.5 crore due to recovering housing demand. This pushed its stock to Rs 970 levels, which was 15% higher than the average brokerage target price of Rs 840. The real estate company will announce its Q2 results on October 29.

    4. Century Plyboards: This plyboards maker’s stock is up by nearly 45% in two months, but the momentum looks to be running out. In one week the stock price is down by 3% ahead of its Q2 earnings reveal on November 2. Momentum indicators suggest the stock is overbought, as its relative strength index (RSI) is at 76 (an RSI over 70 is overbought) and money flow index (MFI) at 72 (an MFI of over 70 is overbought). The stock is trading well above all its exponential and simple moving averages with over delivery volumes of over 60% of total traded volume this week.

    5. Nestle India: This FMCG company’s stock dipped after the announcement of its Q2 results. Net profits rose by 5.2% YoY to Rs 617 crore despite high cost of raw materials (oil and packaging materials) causing a dent in its operational performance. The company reported a 9.6% YoY growth in sales revenue. Brokerages — Edelweiss and Geojit BNP Paribas — maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on the stock expecting an increase in sales volumes. They also expect higher demand for the company’s products in the outdoor food and beverage industry due to a decrease in the intensity of the pandemic.

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    The Baseline
    27 Oct 2021
    Chart of the week - HDFC Bank and Kotak’s gross NPAs increase in Q2FY22

    Chart of the week - HDFC Bank and Kotak’s gross NPAs increase in Q2FY22

    One of the ways to measure a bank’s financial health is to see its gross non performing assets (GNPA) ratios. A high GNPA ratio is a red alert for the bank’s asset quality. With the earnings season going on, some banks are seeing a steep decline in gross NPAs as the banking sector shows robust growth as things return to normal. 

    Except for Kotak Mahindra Bank private banks have reported a steep fall in gross NPAs. Yes Bank reported a sharp decline in provisions and an improvement in asset quality. For public sector banks, IDBI Bank is leading the charts with a 2,487 basis points (bps)YoY decrease in gross NPAs. Due to a sharp increase in net interest income by 34% to Rs 1,450 crore, Bank of Maharashtra’s net profits rose by 103% to 264 crore.

    Most private sector banks have seen a double digit increase in net profits besides Kotak Mahindra Bank which reported a 7% fall in net profits in Q2FY22. The reason the private bank's profits fell is the increase in gross NPA by 64 bps YoY. But the bank is hopeful to bounce back from the red in the coming quarters.

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    The Baseline
    23 Oct 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Federal Bank: This bank’s stock is rising ahead of its Q2FY22 results. In one week, the stock is up by nearly 6%, outperforming the Nifty50 and the Nifty Bank. The bank's operational numbers improved in the quarter. Its loan disbursed increased by 9% YoY and total customer deposits by 8% with a healthy liquidity coverage ratio of 1.2 in Q2FY22. Investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala also increased his stake in the bank to 3.7% from 2.8%.

    2. Cadila Healthcare: Mutual funds aren’t thrilled about this pharma company despite its Covid-19 vaccine for children being rolled out soon. In each month of Q2FY22, mutual funds were net sellers of the company’s stock, selling 1.1 crore shares or 18% of their holding. Mutual funds lowered their stake in the company to 4.7% in Q2FY22 from 5.8% in Q1FY22. Their pessimism on the stock is reflected in the price, as the vaccine maker’s stock fell by nearly 14% in Q2.

    3. Avenue Supermarts: Brokerages are not too upbeat despite this supermarket operator’s positive Q2 results. In Q2FY22, the company’s revenues grew by 45% YoY, with a two-fold increase in net profits. Despite this two brokerages — HDFC Securities and Axis Direct maintained their ‘Sell’ rating on the stock. Brokerages cautioned against the high valuations of the stock at 212 trailing 12-month price to earnings (PE) ratio, against a three year average PE of 132. After surging past the Rs 5,300 levels, the stock is down by 15% in one week.

    4. Devyani International: This franchise operator of Yum! Brands (which includes KFC India and Pizza Hut) is outperforming peers and the benchmark index. In a volatile week, where the Nifty50 fell by 1%, the stock is up by 8%. The stock of its peers — Jubilant Foodworks (master franchisee of Domino’s Pizza), Westlife Development (master franchisee of McDonald’s in south and west India), and Burger King India have declined this past week. In FY21, the company made its third consecutive net loss of Rs 63 crore and expects to break even only in FY23.

    5. Ashoka Buildcon: This infrastructure company’s stock price is on a tear but its valuations remain cheap. In one month, the stock is up by nearly 20%. This puts it among the top three highest gainers among infrastructure stocks within one month. It remains the most cheaply valued mid-cap infrastructure company with a trailing 12 month (TTM) price to earnings (PE) ratio of 8.3 times, compared to a three-year average PE of 14.9, putting it in the buy zone.

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    The Baseline
    20 Oct 2021
    Chart of the week: Mutual Funds decrease stake in chemical companies

    Chart of the week: Mutual Funds decrease stake in chemical companies

    Chemical companies may have a high growth outlook in FY22, but mutual funds aren't optimistic. In Q2FY22, mutual funds decreased their stake in several agrochemicals, specialty chemical, and commodity chemical companies.

    Agrochemical company Laxmi Organic Industries listed in March 2021 at a 26% premium. Since then its stock has tripled. However, mutual funds trimmed two-thirds of their stake in the past six months, holding 1% of the company as of September. Mutual funds have also lowered their stake in phenolics maker Deepak Nitrite to 12.6% in September, from 14.3% in July. In that time, the stock is up by 40%. 

    Are mutual funds booking profits or missing out?

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    The Baseline
    19 Oct 2021
    Five Stocks Superstar Investors Sold in Q2

    Five Stocks Superstar Investors Sold in Q2

    As the quarter's shareholding data comes in, we are seeing top superstar investors update their portfolios, as valuations change and some sectors - and stocks - fall out of favor. One of the key factors of a good portfolio is selling losers quickly rather than hanging on, hoping for a recovery. These are five stocks that lost favor with the biggest investors in the September quarter. 

    1. MCX: Investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala has sold this commodity exchange stock, reducing his stake below 1%. MCX significantly underperformed the index over the last year by 41%. However it gained sharply in share price since the beginning of October after Jhunjhunwala's sell. You win some, you lose some. 

    2. Xchanging Solutions: Sunil Singhania's Abakkus Fund had increased the stake in this smallcap tech company between the March and the June quarters, but cut it in the September quarter. This was another underperformer relative to the index, with negative price to earnings growth over trailing twelve months.

    3. Apollo Pipes: The reclusive investor Ashish Kacholia avoids the limelight, and has a great track record in his picks. His net worth has climbed steadily over the quarters he has been investing. A recent stock he sold is the pipes company Apollo Pipes, in which he previously held a 3.6% stake. Kacholia sold Apollo Pipes despite the construction sector being fairly bullish in its outlook over the next few quarters. The stock has been a stellar performer over the past year, with nearly 400% 1 year returns. 

    4. Kolte Patil Developers: Investor Mohnish Pabrai's Pabrai Fund has cut his holding in a long held real estate stock (held since 2017), from a 6%+ stake held in the March 2021 quarter. While the company's stock has seen some recovery in share price since early September, it has overall been an average performer in the real estate sector. 

    5. Som Distilleries and Breweries: This brewery stock has been down since its peaks in 2018, and the pandemic lockdowns continued to batter its performance. Investor Porinju Veliyath had reduced his fund's stake in the company to 1% in June 2021, and appears to have exited the stock in the September quarter. 

    You can set an alert to get superstar changes as they happen.

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    The Baseline
    14 Oct 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    • Indian Energy Exchange: The current shortage of coal across India has put the focus on power utilities, which in turn led investors to hone in on this power exchange company. Over the past fortnight, the short-term power rates on IEX doubled because of power distribution companies scrambling to meet the power needs of their customers through dipping into the short-term power market. This has led to the company’s stock rising nearly 24% over the past four trading sessions ending Thursday. A recent trigger for the stock’s up move was a long-standing court case finally being settled, which will allow it to introduce long duration electricity delivery contracts for its customers.

    • Motherson Sumi: This auto part maker recently bought a Bengaluru-based company to diversify its presence into the aerospace industry. This is a strategic investment that will allow the company to build its commitment of having revenues of at least 25% from outside the automotive industry in the future. This acquisition will give the  company access to marquee clients in the aerospace sector.

    • Max Healthcare Institute: This company’s promoter entity Kayak Investments Holding Ptepledged 26% of the firm’s outstanding shares as a surety for a credit facility taken by its Singapore-based holding company Kayak Topco Holding. This credit facility of $350 million was taken last week, and also has additional covenants for disposal or creating pledge on an additional 11.69% stake in Max Healthcare. This means the entire shareholding of Kayak Investments is encumbered.

    • Infosys: This IT services major posted decent Q2FY22 earnings, with its net profits nearly 4.4% to Rs 5,421 crore on the back of operating margins of 23.6%. The company’s dollar revenues rose 5.7% QoQ to nearly $4 billion during the quarter. Revenues grew across verticals and the company’s management raised the revenue guidance for FY22 to 16.5%-17.5% from 14-%-16%.

    • Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation: This railway company’s stock hit a 52-week high and shares jumped 141% to Rs 5,505 apiece in less than three months after the board approved a stock split in the ratio of 1:5. The enthusiasm in the street is also because reports suggest that the company’s train ticket bookings have doubled in Q2FY22 ahead of the festive season.

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    The Baseline
    13 Oct 2021
    An uptick in investor activism puts management in the hot seat

    An uptick in investor activism puts management in the hot seat

    By Aakash Athawasya

    Over the past few months, a simmering issue for India’s public market investors burst out into the open. Minority and institutional investors are pushing back against company promoters and the management by voting against shareholders’ resolutions, and in some cases defeating some. 

    In a sign that the Indian equity market is slowly maturing, investor activism against high-profile companies has picked …

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    Over the past few months, a simmering issue for India’s public market investors burst out into the open. Minority and institutional investors are pushing back against company promoters and the management by voting against shareholders’ resolutions, and in some cases defeating some. 

    In a sign that the Indian equity market is slowly maturing, investor activism against high-profile companies has picked up in the past few years. In 2018, Apollo Tyres’ shareholders voted against the salary hike of the company’s Managing Director Neeraj Kanwar in a year when profits fell. Two years ago, investors also voted down the reappointment of Housing Finance Development Corporation’s chairman Deepak Parekh because of his concurrent directorship in seven listed companies at the time. Automobile maker Maruti Suzuki India’s shareholders were against the company transferring its Gujarat plant to a group company through a related party. 

    However, in the past few months cases of investor activism have surged, leaving promoters scurrying for cover in some cases. But what’s actually happening and what does this mean for the Indian equity market? Let’s take a closer look.

    Zee dodges Invesco’s management change attempt

    Run-ins between minority shareholders and promoters happened in fits and starts in the past and Zee Entertainment Enterprises is the latest one.

    The power of non-promoter shareholders is at the forefront of the ongoing dispute between Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Zee) and its largest institutional shareholder — Invesco, which holds Zee shares through Invesco Developing Market Funds and OFI Global China Fund. On September 15, Invesco, which holds an 18% stake in the company, called for a special shareholder’s meeting to remove Punit Goenka, the CEO of Zee and son of Subhash Chandra, the founder of Zee, and two independent directors.

    Even before the  EGM could be held, Zee turned to the Japanese conglomerate Sony to rescue them. On September 23, Zee’s board of directors announced a merger with Sony Pictures Networks India (Sony India). Following the merger, Sony India would hold a 47% stake in the merged entity for $1.5 billion (Rs 11,800 crore).

    As part of the merger agreement,  Goenka would remain at the helm of the merged entity but Sony would appoint the majority of directors to the new board. At the time the deal was penned, Zee’s promoters held a 4% stake in the company. According to the details of the merger with Sony India, Zee’s promoters have the option to increase their stake to 20%. In order to receive this, Zee’s founders will sign a non-compete agreement with the merged entity.

    Activism Zee shareholding

    Once the news of the merger was announced, the outlook for the company, considered a laggard in the broadcasting industry, turned positive. 

    Zee’s stock surged by nearly 80% in two weeks, brokerages changed their tune, and big investors began buying stock. In August, Prabhudas Lilladher cut its earnings per share (EPS) and EBITDA margin estimate on the company due to lower expected advertisement revenue. However, following the merger announcement, the brokerage upped its target price and increased its price to earnings (PE) estimates. In addition, superstar investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala purchased 50 lakh shares of the company a day before the merger announcement was made. Following the announcement, Blackrock purchased 3 lakh shares of Zee in an open market transaction. Just four months earlier, Blackrock had sold 18.8 lakh shares in the company.

    While the institutional investor is not averse to the merger, they are against the current management of Zee. And in order to oust Goenka, Invesco took Zee to the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) to force the company to conduct an EGM in order for a special resolution to pass, removing Goenka. With no headway from the courts, Invesco penned an open letter to Zee’s founders stating the management has “demonstrably destroyed shareholder value” and the merger “unfairly” favours Goenka and the promoters. Now Invesco says that it had earlier brokered a deal with Reliance Industries for a merger with Zee. This was not disclosed by Zee publicly till Invesco’s revelation. 

    This legal ordeal is far from over, but proxy advisory firm IiAS believes it’s all a mere “distraction.” IiAS urges investors to realize that it’s their votes, and not the court’s decision, that will decide the future of Zee, with or without Sony India.

    Jindal Steel’s subsidiary divestment and Siddhartha Lal’s MD pay hike

    The recent surge in investor activism did not start with Zee Entertainment Enterprises or even Eicher Motors, but with Jindal Steel and Power (JSPL). Back in May 2021, following a board of directors’ approval, JSPL decided to divest its 96.4% stake in Jindal Power (JPL) to its promoter controlled entity Worldone for a cash consideration of Rs 3,015 crore. According to this proposal, JSPL would have had to take over JPL’s liabilities worth Rs 4,386 crore. 

    This amount was considered minuscule in comparison to its power generating assets (estimated at Rs 15,000 crore) and its annual net profit (Rs 2,000 crore in FY21. However, JSPL said the reason for the sale was to bring down its overall debt, which was Rs 28,000 crore at the end of FY21.

    Prior to the confirmation of this sale, JSPL held meetings with its major institutional investors including Kotak AMC, Goldman Sachs, IDFC MF, Enam Holding, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, etc. Reports suggest that the sale of a profitable JPL to JSPL at a lower valuation than expected irked investors. Two proxy advisory firms — Institutional Investor Advisory Services (IiAS) and InGovern Research Services (InGovern) advised JSPL’s shareholders to reject the acquisition. 

    Activism JSPL

    In a report, IiAS stated that the rationale to sell JPL to JSPL was unclear as the need to reduce debt was “not an immediate nor necessary concern”. InGovern added that with power demand rising and JPL’s plants fully operational, the company’s outlook is intact. IiAS estimated the enterprise value of JPL to be close to Rs 9,400 crore, or three times the equity consideration offered by JSPL. On the concern of debt reduction, IiAS said the sale of JPL would have reduced JSPL’s cash flows and concluded the overall impact on the parent company’s credit profile will be negligible. 

    These concerns came to light before the company approached shareholders to seek approval on the acquisition between May 21-23. JSPL’s extraordinary general meeting (EGM) was scheduled for May 24. Because of the concerns raised by proxy advisory firms, JSPL postponed the EGM and decided to amend the divestment agreement.

    Another company to see investors scuttling a management decision is Eicher Motors’ salary hike for Managing Director Siddhartha Lal, son of Vikram Lal, the founder of the automobile maker. In August, Eicher Motors’ shareholders rejected the reappointment of Lal as the company’s Managing Director via a special resolution. Over 25% of shareholders were against a 10% hike in Lal’s salary. 

    Proxy advisory firms suggested that executive compensation should be tied to a company’s profitability. And in FY21 Eicher Motors’ net profits declined by 26% and revenue by 5%. Therefore hiking the Managing Director’s salary by 10% was not justified, especially as the company raised the median employee’s salary by under 2%.

    Eicher Motors’ management will approach shareholders again in an EGM seeking reappointment of Lal as Managing Director, with a revised salary payout proposal. However, it looks like institutional shareholders have made their unhappiness known on rising executive pay. Eicher Motors isn’t the only automobile company to see resistance from institutional investors on executive compensation.

    Shareholders miffed by auto industry pay hikes

    Another emerging point of dispute between companies and shareholders was executive compensation. This has boiled over in the automobile industry, with the salaries of top management being rejected by shareholders. The driving force behind the rejections of salary hikes to executives are institutional investors.

    Similar to what happened with Eicher Motors, Institutional investors were miffed by the large salary increases to the executives of other automobile makers, especially following dismal sales during the pandemic-ridden FY21. Domestic mutual funds and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) rejected salary hikes to the executives of Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp (Hero), and Balkrishna Industries. In the case of Bajaj Auto and Hero, more than half of domestic mutual funds and FIIs rejected salary hikes to Rahul Bajaj, Chairman Emeritus at Bajaj Auto Pawan Munjal, Managing Director of Hero. However, since both companies’ promoters account for a significant percentage of the company’s shareholding, the ordinary resolutions passed. 

    Activism auto shareholding

    The concern for investors was that despite falling profits, Hero and Bajaj Auto sought to increase the promoter management’s emoluments. Investors were also concerned about the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) and hence the growing threat of smaller companies to the incumbents.

    Activism salary vs profits

    Another concern for shareholders was the difference in the higher pay packages to executives versus employees. In addition to the three two-wheeler makers, salary hikes at Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, and Balkrishna Industries grew as against the hike given to median employees. This is measured by the ratio of the remuneration of the top executive (Managing Director, CEO, Chairman) to the median employee.

    Activism remuneration ratio

    While the resolutions of Bajaj Auto and Hero’s executives sailed through, it didn’t for Eicher Motors’ Managing Director Siddhartha Lal.

    What is driving these bouts of investor activism?

    Over the past year, several issues of poor corporate governance have been met with resistance from shareholders. Whether it was Vedanta’s delisting at a paltry price compared to the value ascertained by advisory firms, compensation packages to executives at Balaji Telefilms, Lupin, or issues with a company’s policies with Burger King India and V-Mart Retail. But why has all of this boiled over in recent months?

    Proxy advisory firms suggest that the main catalyst for institutional investors picking up governance issues is the SEBI's Stewardship Code, issued in December 2019. Under this code, institutional investors should strictly monitor their investee company on “corporate governance, board structure, and diversity, remuneration, capital structure, related party transactions, opportunities or risks including environmental social and governance ("ESG") risks.” This is probably driving institutional investors to look closely at a company’s performance and policies, and preventing companies from sweeping governance issues under the carpet.

    Some proxy advisory firms also suggest the growth of India’s retail base has contributed to investor activism. In FY21, over 1.4 crore dematerialized accounts were opened, which was a three-fold increase over the previous year. However, others believe the thrust of activism is initiated by either proxy advisory firms and institutional investors (due to conducive regulatory framework), as was seen in the case of JSPL, Eicher Motors, and Zee. The advisory firms’ recommendations are heeded by retail investors and enforced through remote voting.

    Regardless of the origin of Indian investors’ activism, institutional investors, retail investors, or proxy advisors, the markets will be better off because of it.

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    The Baseline
    13 Oct 2021
    Chart of the week: FII’s top picks in Q2FY22

    Chart of the week: FII’s top picks in Q2FY22

    Trendlyne Analysis

    In July 2021, foreign institutional investors (or FIIs) sold Rs 11,000 crore worth of Indian equities. Then, in August and September, FIIs purchased Indian equities of over Rs 15,000 crore.

    One of the preferred sectors of FIIs was banks and non-banking financial service companies (NBFCs). In this sector, three companies, Canara Bank, Ujjivan Financial Services, and Aavas Financiers saw a significant QoQ increase in FII holding in Q2FY22. The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the Government of Singapore, and the Monetary Authority of Singapore purchased nearly 20 lakh shares of Aavas Financiers in the quarter. 

    FIIs also increased their stake in specialty chemical maker Balaji Amines, iron ore producer NMDC, and active pharmaceutical ingredient maker Granules India in the quarter.

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