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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    03 Jan 2017
    Bank cut in lending rates boost hopes for spending recovery

    Bank cut in lending rates boost hopes for spending recovery

    • Cuts in the lending rates across the board by banks is set to lower borrowing cost for customers, in a boost to auto and real estate, both of which have been reeling after demonetization. ICICI Bank cut its rate by 0.90%, SBI by 0.70%, and other banks cut rates at levels ranging from 0.15-0.70%.A revival in lending and credit could boost the economy amid worries that people are curbing back spending towards a new, lower normal, as manufacturing contracts overall and new investment falls.

    • The government has said that service charge is not mandatory for customers to pay in hotels and restaurants; restauranters have responded that this will impact the earnings of restaurant employees, who depend on the service charge for their pay. The Association has said that diners dissatisfied with their dining experience can have the service charges waived off their bill.

    • The BSE has detected unusual trading volumes for Hindustan Copper and the shipping company Dredging Corporation, and has sought an explanation from the firms.  

    • Stock in spotlight: Suven LifeSciences, which has landed two new patents from Eurasia and Norway for the treatment of degenerative diseases including Alzheimer's, Parkinsons and schizophrenia. 

    • Photo of the day: Seven year old Ashima plays with her unusual-colored pet chick in Mumbai. Shailesh Andrade/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    02 Jan 2017
    Not a happy new year for Bajaj Auto: December sales take a hit

    Not a happy new year for Bajaj Auto: December sales take a hit

    • After the rise in deposits post demonetization, the State Bank of India said on Sunday that it has cut its lending rates by 90 basis points for maturities ranging from overnight to three-years. State Bank of Travancore had also cut its rates on Friday. The marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR) at SBI has fallen to 7.75 percent from 8.65 percent, while three-year loan rates will now be 8.15 percent from 9.05 percent previously. This will bring down the cost of auto and home loans substantially. 

    • Not pretty numbers: Bajaj Autoreleased its sales figures for the month of December 2016, which have fallen across the board compared to the previous year. Domestic commercial vehicle and motorcycle sales are down 44% and 11% respectively; exports are down 49% and 24% for these segments. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Intense Technologies Ltd, which has hit a new 52 week high today. 

    • Photo of the day: A man lights firecrackers in Mumbai during the New Year's Eve celebrations. Rafiq Maqbool/AP

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    The Baseline
    01 Jan 2017
    Research Report Summary: December 23-31

    Research Report Summary: December 23-31

    Happy new year - here is  the Research reports summary for the last week of 2016! It looks likePetronet LNG has made an impression with analysts, with three recommendation upgrades, with brokers pointing out that the recent fall in the company's stock prices is a buying opportunity. However, that is changing fast. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-12-30Bharat Forge Limited 943.004.06%NEUT.906.20HDFC Securities 3x
    2016-12-30Persistent Systems Limited 725.0017.92%Buy614.80ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other2x
    2x
    2016-12-30KEI Industries Limited 153.0023.39%Buy124.00Angel Broking
    2016-12-29The Karnataka Bank Limited 140.0025.22%Buy111.80Axis Direct
    2016-12-29WIM PLAST LTD. --%-1475.00Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-12-28National Stock Exchange of I.. --%--HDFC Securities
    2016-12-28J.Kumar Infraprojects Limited 306.0049.20%Buy205.10CD Equisearch
    2016-12-28Indian Bank 275.0024.60%Buy220.70ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-12-28Mahanagar Gas Limited 777.00-%-785.45ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-12-27Gateway Distriparks Limited 313.0028.28%Buy244.00Motilal Oswal
    2016-12-27JK Cement Limited 767.006.53%Buy720.00Motilal Oswal 1x
    1x
    2016-12-27MOLD-TEK TECHNOLOGIES LTD. --%-43.80Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-12-26Petronet LNG Limited 411.0011.78%Buy367.70Motilal Oswal 3x
    1x
    2016-12-26Jagran Prakashan Limited 195.008.76%Buy179.30Axis Direct 1x
    2016-12-26ION EXCHANGE (INDIA) LTD. 539.0081.54%Buy296.90Ventura
    2016-12-26Cipla Limited 700.0023.20%Buy568.20Nirmal Bang Institutional 1x
    2x
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    The Baseline
    30 Dec 2016
    Tata Sons hopes to silence Mistry with legal notices

    Tata Sons hopes to silence Mistry with legal notices

    • Tata Sons, in a continued scramble to contain the damage Mistry may inflict,served the ex-Chairman a second legal notice, asking him to return all documents related to Tata Sons and the Tata group of companies, and also sign a letter pledging not to disclose confidential information on the company to "affiliates, relatives or friends/family."

    • The RBI has issued another warning, saying that Indian banks are in a weakened state, with low profitability, declining asset quality and liquidity in funds. The Central Bank noted that the bad loan ratio could climb to 9.8% by March, and worsen to close to even 12% a year after that if the situation continues. In the meantime, the Prime Minister has insisted that demonetization will boost the economy and strengthen the banking sector as well over the long-term. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Coromandel International, which has hit a new 52 week high today. The company's shift to higher product grades in its fertilizer business is set to improve margins, according to Axis Direct, which released a buy report for the company in early December. 

    • Photo of the day: A man walks through tea gardens in the rain, in Munnar, Kerala. Sanjay Baid/EPA

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    The Baseline
    29 Dec 2016
    NSE applies for its much anticipated IPO, discloses possible violations

    NSE applies for its much anticipated IPO, discloses possible violations

    • NSE applied for its much-anticipated IPO on Wednesday, making mandatory disclosures that some brokers had gained unfair access to its servers, with some NSE employees potentially having conspired to provide such access. The exchange also said its trading systems may have been "prone to manipulation." The disclosures may impact the enthusiasm around its $1 billion IPO, which is potentially the biggest IPO in the last six years.  

    • The government has cleared a draft ordinance making it illegal to hold on to old notes - this would become a criminal offence with a fine of Rs. 10,000. The ordinance comes into effect when passed by President Pranab Mukherjee. The last date for exchanging demonetised notes is this Friday, following which people can deposit old notes only with the RBI up to March 31st next year. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Kalpataru Power Transmission, whose Q2FY17 had seen sales up 19.6% yoy, and profit ahead of estimates and up 21.7% yoy. The company announced today new orders worth over Rs. 1,457 crore through its listed subsidiary, JMC Projects.  

    • Photo of the day: Taking a run during sunrise, in San Sebastian, Spain. Javier Etxezarreta/EPA

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    The Baseline
    28 Dec 2016
    Battle of Kurukshetra: Mistry-Tata war will drag on for a while in courts, experts say

    Battle of Kurukshetra: Mistry-Tata war will drag on for a while in courts, experts say

    • Its a time for legal suits and counter-suits: Mistry last week has filed a petition against the Tatas at the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), a body that deals with corporate grievances in India. He has alleged mismanagement and "shareholder oppression" by Tata Sons, and has asked that the group's board of directors be replaced. On Tuesday, the Tatas filed a legal notice against Mistry, saying he breached confidentiality rules in his public war against the Tata trusts. The Tata suit says Mistry illegally shared "confidential data, business strategies, financial information" about Tata Sons. The cases are unlikely to be decided immediately, and will probably wind their way through the legal system and potentially the Supreme Court. 

    • Cadila Healthcare clarified after newspapers today claimed the company's subsidiary Zydus had received a warning letter from the USFDA. Cadila said the FDA letter was not a warning letter, but an 'untitled' letter. Such untitled letters typically do not carry warning statements. Scrutiny by regulatory authorities such as the US FDA on Indian pharma companies has ramped up over the last year, as these firms attempt to access the US and Europe markets. This has not gone well for Indian pharma firms - major Indian drug companies, including Sun Pharma and Glenmark have been subject to FDA observation letters on safety violations at plants.

    • Stock in spotlight: Godfrey Phillips, which saw a sudden spike in volumes combined with high gains - the stock is up 5.8% in the markets today. BSE has noted that there is no recent news/announcements on the company, and the spike is unexplained. 

    • Photo of the day: Engineers in South Korea test a four meter tall manned robot called Method 2. Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty

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    The Baseline
    27 Dec 2016
    Officials say they're ready to act against suspicious real estate transactions

    Officials say they're ready to act against suspicious real estate transactions

    • PM Modi is not done with his shakeup against black money, with tax officials saying that their focus is now examining tax returns for suspicious real estate assets, such as property registered in the names of relatives and trusted friends. Modi, saying that "there is no question of a retreat", has apparently given the go-ahead to step up scrutiny of such transactions.  

    • Reliance Jio is set to be a powerful telecommunications player thanks to the massive cash reserves Mukesh Ambani has in hand, from the company's petrochemicals and gas revenues. Reliance Jio has managed 50 million mobile subscribers in 83 days, thanks to the generous freebies the company has doled out in data and voice, coupled with the cheap handsets. Reliance's cash rich balance sheet gives Ambani plenty of room to decide where he wants to venture next, and his effort now seems to be focused on turning the Jio network into a powerful payments gateway. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Glenmark, which is trending bullish in the stock market and has received FDA approvals to sell the drugs Ezetimibe and Tretinoin in the US markets. 

    • Photo of the day: Schoolgirls in Ukraine write letters to Santa asking him to return their parents - who are prisoners of war in Russia - back home. Efrem Lukatsky/AP

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    The Baseline
    26 Dec 2016
     Ratan Tata's 'postmen' control decision-making, observers say

    Ratan Tata's 'postmen' control decision-making, observers say

    • Finance Minister Arun Jaitley clarified today that there would be no taxes imposed on long-term capital gains, a day after PM Modi had said that people earning from financial markets must make a "fair contribution" to nation building. The remark by the PM had created consternation among investors that one of the avenues free from taxes would now also come under the net. 

    • Tata's "postmen": Mistry's firing — and the return of the 78 year old Ratan Tata as interim chairman — triggered an unpleasant argument in full public view, that has led to a nearly $10 billion decline in the market value of Tata's many listed companies. The core of this argument has been the control that the Tata Trusts (and consequently, Ratan Tata) has on business decisions. Since 2014, the Trusts can nominate one-third of Tata directors, and Tata insiders interviewed by Reuters, say critical business decisions require their approval. Mistry called these directors the "postmen" who carried out Ratan Tata's bidding. 

    • Stock in spotlight: SREI Infrastructure, which is trading above its 200 day SMA and has announced a proposal to raise Rs. 500 crore, through a public issue of secured redeemable debentures. The issue opens January 3 and closes on January 20, 2017.  

    • Photo of the day: A dye worker suns the fabric after washing it, in Dhaka. Hossain/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    25 Dec 2016
     Research Reports and Stockpick of the week - Dec 18 - 25

    Research Reports and Stockpick of the week - Dec 18 - 25

    28 new research reports landed this week! Stockpick among analysts is Natco Pharma, with an estimated 44% upside according to Karvy. The company has seen a strong quarter on the back of sales of generic Tamiflu. Natco is manufacturing the first generic equivalent of Tamiflu now available in the US, where the drug saw around $403 million worth of annual sales in 2015. Flu season in the US is typically in the ongoing period of December-March, where a large % of Tamilflu sales occur. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-12-23Voltas Limited 325.003.03%ACC.315.45Nirmal Bang Institutional 1x
    1x
    2016-12-22Lumax Industries Limited 893.0018.88%ACC.751.15CD Equisearch
    2016-12-22Natco Pharma Limited 841.0044.15%Buy583.40Karvy
    2016-12-22NRB Bearing Limited 118.008.81%Hold108.45Karvy 1x
    2016-12-22Gillette India Limited 4612.007.86%Hold4276.00Karvy 1x
    2016-12-22Firstsource Solutions Limited 46.0026.55%Buy36.35Karvy
    2016-12-21Gulf Oil Corporation Limited 600.00127.49%NEUT.263.75HDFC Securities
    2016-12-21Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Lim.. 900.00-2.73%NEUT.925.30HDFC Securities 1x
    2016-12-21Maharashtra Seamless Limited 240.003.25%Hold232.45ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-12-20Idea Cellular Limited 65.008.19%Sell70.80Motilal Oswal 2x
    2016-12-20SH Kelkar and Co. Ltd. 481.0062.89%Buy295.30Motilal Oswal
    2016-12-20Biocon Limited 630.0032.10%Sell927.85Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-12-20National Aluminium Company L.. 60.004.53%Hold57.40Reliance Securities 1x
    2016-12-20MT Educare Limited 130.0013.19%Hold114.85Karvy 1x
    2016-12-20Elgi Equipments Limited 194.008.90%Hold178.15Karvy 1x
    2016-12-20Hester Biosciences Limited 873.0020.41%Buy725.00Karvy
    2016-12-20Mahindra Holidays & Resorts .. 429.009.45%Hold391.95Karvy 1x
    2016-12-20Gujarat Mineral Development .. 111.0021.05%Buy91.70Karvy
    2016-12-19Persistent Systems Limited 700.0016.28%NEUT.602.00Motilal Oswal and 1 other1x
    2x
    2016-12-19Essel Propack Limited 268.008.77%Buy246.40Axis Direct
    2016-12-19Technocraft Industries (Indi.. 433.0018.76%Buy364.60Axis Direct
    2016-12-19Aegis Logistics Limited 167.0024.35%ACC.134.30CD Equisearch
    2016-12-19Bata India Limited 500.0017.67%Buy424.90Karvy 2x
    1x
    2016-12-19JBM Auto Limited 242.008.94%Hold222.15Karvy 1x
    2016-12-19Indo Count Industries Limited 204.0028.79%Buy158.40Karvy
    2016-12-19The Jammu & Kashmir Bank Lim.. 75.0023.86%Buy60.55ICICI Securities Limited 1x
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    The Baseline
    23 Dec 2016
     MyMoney Series: 'I would like to take more risks in my investments'

    MyMoney Series: 'I would like to take more risks in my investments'

    This week on the MyMoney Series, we talk to Vivek Subramanian, CTO and co-founder at PrimaSeller, a startup in the retail channel space. Vivek has worked in IT for close to a decade. He is an adventurer outdoors but not in his investing, and he talks about his plan to change that.

    I save around 60k per month - since I stay at home, I also save on rent money. My investing pattern is pretty similar to what my dad does since he plays the role of an informal fund manager. That role now is gradually being shared by my wife - she is more risk friendly than my dad, so I expect that my portfolio will change towards a bit riskier ( and hopefully higher return) investments. Most of my money has been in very-low risk instruments -  80% of it is in FD, PPF, NPS, and savings accounts, 10% across some mutual funds and 10% in stocks.

    I don't spend much day to day. I haven't made a big ticket purchase in the past couple of years. The last expensive item I bought was an iPhone two years ago. This was when my salary was higher that what I make now after joining a startup, so the 50k that I spent on the phone wasn't a big pinch. 

    In the last couple of months I had one fairly big spend item - my wedding - which cost around a year of savings for me. Since putting that money in FD wasn't going to help much, I salted the cash away in my savings account and was careful not to spend it. I got married about a couple of weeks or so after the demonentization. Paying off wedding expenses required some planning in withdrawing money, given the limits.

    My monthly spend usually never exceeds 20-30k. When I do splurge, I splurge on collecting whisky, traveling and dining out - in that order. So the rule is quite simple - when I figure out what I want to splurge on next,  I go into a savings overdrive except for the bare essentials.

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