Oil And Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. share price target

Crude prices witnessed a sharp decline in March due to spread of Covid-19 across the globe and Opec deal failure. A likely increase in oil output by both Saudi Arabia and Russia from Q1FY21E and lower demand are expected to lead to a sizeable oversupply in the oil market. Subsequent low oil prices are expected to significantly affect ONGC's profitability....

The volatility in crude oil prices is expected to continue in short-term, while the new block should provide necessary uptick in production from FY21 onwards. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with a roll forward target price of Rs. 107 using SOTP valuation. Topline adversely impacted by weaker realizations In Q3FY20, standalone revenue fell 14.4% YoY to Rs. 23,710cr, on the back of a continued decline in crude oil prices in the global markets. Offshore business revenue dropped 16.8% YoY to Rs. 15,765cr, while Onshore business decreased to Rs. 7,945cr...

ONGC declared its O3FY20 results that were below our estimates on the profitability front, mainly due to higher depreciation & amortisation costs and lower other income. Revenues declined 3.2% QoQ at | 23710.1 crore (our estimate: | 22823.2 crore) on account of marginally lower realisations as well as sales volume QoQ. The oil & gas production was largely in line with our estimates. As per expectations, the quarter witnessed nil subsidy burden while net realisations were at US$59.7/bbl. EBITDA during the quarter declined 7.5% QoQ and came in at | 12298.3 crore (our estimate:...

profit to Rs 15655.46 crore. Other income of the company fell 34% to Rs 1744.44 crore. Interest cost rose 14% to Rs 1536.55 crore. Depreciation (includes Depletion, Amortization and impairment losses) cost increased 25% to Rs 7514.45 crore. PBT before EO fell 35% to Rs 8348.9 crore. The company had nil EO income/expense during the quarter compared to EO expense of Rs 10.26 core. PBT after EO fell 35% to Rs 8348.9 crore. Tax expenses fell 12% to Rs...

Despite production cut from OPEC and non-OPEC countries, we expect the oil prices to remain muted owing to the robust supply from US Shale and weakening global macros. Thus, we do not foresee subsidy sharing in FY21/22E as well. Besides, ONGC will generate OCF yield of 32.1/35.1% and dividend yield of 9.7% over FY21/22E. Though the stock has remained out of flavor given GoI's stake sale to achieve its disinvestment target, it still remains a key overhang on the stock (in the last 2 years, GoI's shareholding shrank from 67.7% to 62.8%). We value ONGC at Rs 173/sh (8x Dec-21E standalone core EPS (adj. for dividend income) + OVL EPS and Rs 31 from other investments) vs the consensus TP of Rs 184. We maintain BUY on ONGC following an inline performance with our PAT estimate in 3QFY20. The current valuations after adjusting for investments (OVL and others) for FY21/22 are 1.5/1.3x EV/EBITDA, 3.6/3.1x PER. Such pessimism is unwarranted in our opinion.

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Continued weakness in crude oil impacts performance Standalone revenues declined 12.5% YoY to Rs. 24,493cr in Q2FY20, impacted by lower crude oil volumes and pricing. Crude oil prices fell 17.0% YoY to USD 60.3/bbl (-9.0% QoQ), while crude oil production volumes declined 3.9% YoY to 5.8t and sales volumes fell 1.2% YoY to 5.4mt. Overall revenue from offshore facilities dropped 15.8% YoY to Rs. 16,014cr, while onshore facilities revenue declined 5.5% YoY to Rs. 8,479cr. EBITDA was down 14.8% YoY to Rs. 14,377cr as EBITDA margin contracted ~160bps YoY to 58.7% due to higher material costs. PAT of Rs. 6,263cr (-24.2% YoY)...

Q1FY20, Profit met estimates even as crude oil prices fell. ONGC is the largest oil and gas exploration and production company in India in terms of production and reserves of oil and gas for the 2019 fiscal year. ONGC reported 36.21% fall in consolidated net profit to Rs 5,275.51 crore on 11.19% fall in total income to Rs 103,237.18 crore in Q2 September 2019 over in Q2 September 2018. The company's total crude oil production stood at 5.842 MMT in Q2 September 2019, down by 3.9% from 6.078 MMT in Q2 September 2018. ONGC's total gas production fell 1.6% to 6.265 BCM while the value added...

ONGC generates OCF yield of almost 28% and divided yield of 7.4% over FY20/21E. Despite realising market price for oil in the absence of any subsidy sharing, upstream companies have remained unfavourable. Stake sale from government to achieve its disinvestment targets remains a key overhang on the stock (in last 2 years GoI's shareholding shrunk from 68.02% to 62.98%). We maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 187/sh (8x Jun-21E standalone core EPS (adj. for dividend income) + OVL EPS and Rs 34 from other investments). Post an in line performance in Q2, we maintain BUY on ONGC. Adjusting for its investments (OVL+ other) the stock is trading at 5.8x Sep-21E standalone EPS. We believe that such pessimism is unwarranted.