Gateway Distriparks Ltd. share price target

We retain a Buy rating on Gateway Distriparks Limited (GDL) with a revised PT of Rs. 105, factoring downwardly revised estimates and expecting a growth revival, led by rise in EXIM growth.

Gateway Distriparks’ (GDL) Q1FY24 EBITDA performance was broadly in line with estimates. Key points: 1) Volume was impacted by disruption in rail network and port operations owing to cyclone in Gujarat; 2) EBITDA/te improved to INR 5,302 (vs INR 5,109 in Q4FY23) due to favourable volume mix.

Gateway Distriparks’ (GDL) Q4FY23 EBITDA performance (excluding written-back provision) was slightly (~1-2%) below our and street expectations. Key takeaways: 1) throughput in rail segment was up 3.5% YoY and 18.9% QoQ while throughput in CFS/ICS declined 6.9% YoY and 0.7% in QoQ (due to slowdown in EXIM volumes and imbalances).

Gateway Distriparks’ (GDL) Q3FY23 performance was 6% below our expectations mainly due to lower volumes. Key takeaways: 1) throughput dropped for both rail and CFS/ICD segments owing to decline in export volumes (down 15-20% YoY) and slower running of trains in Dec’22; 2) EBITDA/teu improved by 4.4% YoY (3% QoQ) to Rs5,398 due to higher blended realisations.

Gateway Distriparks’ (GDL) Q2FY23 performance was ahead of street estimates.
Key takeaways: 1) Rail remains the mainstay of the business with volume growth
of 10% YoY.