Nippon Life India Asset Management Ltd. share price target

Nippon Life Asset Management (NAM) reported a Rs 250bn sequential increase in Q1FY21 AUM, largely due to the MTM effect.

Nippon Life India AMC (Nippon) reported weak earnings, primarily led by MTM losses on investments. Regressive AUM growth, amid Covid-19, kept the topline under pressure with the outlook being a bit uncertain. Industry AUM declined to | 22.3 lakh crore as of March 2020 vs. | 26.5 lakh crore as of December 2019. Equity segment saw a decline of ~24% QoQ to | 8.3 lakh crore, led by a correction in markets. Debt, liquid schemes saw ~7%, ~11% QoQ, respectively, decline in AUM due to outflows in the...

NAM reported PAT of Rs 3.7cr, down from Rs 151/149cr YoY/QoQ on account of MTM hit. Other income was negative due to sharp correction on investments in equity AUM resulting in gross MTM loss of Rs 149cr.

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We are concerned about the loss of investor confidence which debt schemes face given significant write-downs/offs on exposures to stressed corporates. While we are hopeful of the market share re-gain, we believe the recovery will take longer than street expectations. Lastly despite our positive bias towards Nippon Life as sole promoter, increased credibility to raise HNI/institutional capital, and valuation discount (26.8% on FY21E P/E) to HDFCAMC, we retain NEUTRAL with an unchanged TP of Rs 321 (30x Dec-21E NOLPAT + cash). NAM printed a broadly in-line 3QFY20, with core operating profits of Rs 1.36bn (+24.7/0.2% YoY/QoQ, 2.3% miss). Higher other income (79.7% beat!) drove profitability to Rs 1.49bn (+36.3/21.7% YoY/QoQ, 13.8% beat).

Nippon India AMC reported a broadly stable set of numbers with flat AUM growth but supported by healthy operational performance. QAAUM growth was at | 204370 crore (up 1% QoQ) on the back of growth in liquid (up 200 bps QoQ) and equity AUM (up 100 bps QoQ). Share of equity in AUM was at 44% with non-equity at 66%. SIP inflow witnessed a marginal dip at | 838 crore in Q3FY20 compared to | 842 crore in Q3FY19. Sequential flat revenue from operations at | 286 crore due to sluggish AUM growth, was offset by strong growth in other income (up 140% QoQ at | 57...

RNAM posted MF AUM decline of 16% YoY to Rs 188,600cr led by loss of business on the institutional/ HNI front. Standalone Net revenue declined 25% YoY, Operating profits grew 3% and PAT grew 22% YoY to Rs 134cr.

We are concerned about the loss of investor confidence which debt schemes face given significant write-downs/offs on exposures to stressed corporates. Lastly, the macro environment remains challenging and thus despite our positive bias towards Nippon Life as sole promoter, increased credibility to raise HNI/institutional capital, and valuation discount (26.7% on FY21E P/E) to HDFCAMC, we retain NEUTRAL with a revised Sep-20E TP of Rs 260 (24x Sep-21E NOLPAT + cash). RNAM printed an in-line 2QFY20 with revenues at Rs 3bn (23.2/7.7% YoY/QoQ), and operating profit at Rs 1.35bn (5.2/-6.4% YoY/QoQ, -1.9% vs. est.). We remain concerned of the 13.3% QoQ decline in debt QAAUM.

We are concerned about the loss of investor confidence which debt schemes face given significant write-downs/offs on exposures to stressed corporates. Additionally, given the current inter-promoter deal structure, we believe an OFS by RCAP is imminent. Lastly, the macro environment remains challenging and thus despite our positive bias towards Nippon Life as sole promoter, increased credibility to raise HNI/institutional capital, and valuation discount (37% on FY21E P/E) to HDFCAMC, we cut multiple to 22x (from 26x) to Jun-21E NOPLAT and downgrade stock to NEUTRAL with a revised Jun-20E TP of Rs 235 (22x Jun-21E NOLPAT + cash). While 1QFY20 revenues were in-line, RNAM printed a 14.1/-9.2% YoY/QoQ APAT of Rs 1.25bn, largely due to lower other income.

Retail AUM trends remains strong: During Q4FY19, overall MF AUM for RNAM remained flat as growth in equity schemes and ETFs was offset by a decline in debt and liquid AUM.