ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Ltd. share price target

Gross direct premium income (GDPI) dropped 5.3% YoY, negatively impacted by Motor GDPI (adversely impacted by lockdown) and Health, Travel & PA (owing to lower disbursement from Banks and NBFCs). We expect steady performance from P&C; segment and Motor segment should do well in the coming quarters given the regulatory changes. Given limited upside, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs. 1,398 based on 7.5x FY22E BVPS. Industry GDPI weighed down by COVID...

Valuation and Outlook: We have valued the stock based at 7.78x 1-yr forward P/BV mean and has arrived at a price target of Rs. 1487 with a potential upside of 15% and we rate it HOLD.

Valuation and Risks: We have valued the stock based at 7.55x 1-yr forward P/BV mean at 0.8 x discount and has arrived at a price target of Rs. 1155 with potential downside of 13% and we rate it SELL'.

In Q4FY20, Gross Direct Premium Income (GDPI) dropped 8.7% YoY, negatively impacted by de-growth of 4.1% YoY in Motor GDPI. Net premium increased 6.7% YoY, owing to Fire segment (+89.0% YoY). ROE increased 130bps YoY, supported by PAT (+23.8% YoY). The company's strong distribution network should help the company to withstand the challenging times. Hence, we maintain our HOLD rating with a revised target price of Rs. 1,321 based on 7.0x FY22E BVPS. GDPI declines on weak Motor segment...

With a long run-way of growth, improving regulatory environment, and strong innovation opportunities, we remain positive on the general insurance sector. Regulatory crack-down on motor TP pricing is key risk. Pvt. multi-line insurers Mar-20/FY20 GDPI grew -16.2/+11.7% YoY to Rs 67.1/911.8bn. Decline in Mar-20 was along expected lines as new policy sales have declined as a result of the lockdown and renewals have been impacted by the forbearance (until 15-May-20) given by IRDAI on premium payments, and extra time (until June-20) allowed for claiming deduction under the IT Act, for the purchase of health cover.

We will be reviewing our numbers and recommendations once we have a better understanding of the Covid-19 situation. ICICIGI: GDPI (ex-crop) increased 13.3% YoY to Rs 10.4bn. Growth momentum (ex crop) improved from -2.0/12% YoY seen in Dec-19/Jan-20. Health and Motor OD business reported growth (ahead of industry) of 12.4% and 12.7% respectively. FY20TD GDPI for ICICIGI stands at Rs 125.7bn (-7.5% YoY), with ex-crop GDPI is healthy at Rs 121.7bn (+13.9% YoY). We have a SELL on ICICIGI with a TP of Rs 1,170 (Mar-22E P/E of 26.0x and a P/ABV of 5.7x). ICICIGI is currently trading at a FY21/22E P/E of 26.6/22.3x and P/ABV of 4.9/4.0x. NIACL: GDPI grew to Rs 19.3bn, +24.2% YoY (ex. crop at Rs 18.6bn, +26.0% YoY) led by growth primarily in health business. Growth in retail business segments such as motor TP/health improved moderately to 20.7/30.3% YoY. FY20TD GDPI for NIACL stands at Rs 246.9bn (+15.6% YoY), ex-crop GDPI at Rs 219.1bn (+12.7% YoY). We have a SELL on NIACL with a TP of Rs 130 (0.65x Mar-22E ABV (less 5% discount for expected 10.4% supply). NIACL is currently trading at a FY21/22E P/E of 7.4/6.2x and P/ABV of 0.4/0.4x. Bajaj Allianz General Insurance (BAGIC): GDPI slipped by 1.4% YoY in Feb-20 to Rs 7.0bn, (ex-crop GDPI at Rs 6.6bn +1.6% YoY) led by sharp decline in crop business (-32.2% YoY). Motor OD GDPI declined 8.6% YoY vs. industry decline of 2.7% YoY. FY20TD GDPI for BAGIC stands at Rs 120.5bn (+20.1% YoY), while GDPI (ex-crop) is Rs 89.4bn...

The combined ratio worsened to 98.7% compared with 95.9% in Q3FY19 mostly due to roll out of long term insurance policies. The de-growth in the Crop segment and higher loss ratio in the Motor OD segment would affect the profitability in the short term. Hence, we...

Improvement in Underwriting Performance and Increase in Fire and Retail Health GDPI Worked in Favour.

We expect changing regulations in motor to drive down both claims and tariffs, creating supernormal profitability in the short term. We believe that this period (of super-normal profitability) will be short lived, as we expect IRDAI to clamp down on TP pricing restricting profitability. We believe market is not factoring this risk, accordingly we rate ICICIGI a SELL with a reduced TP of Rs 1,126 (Dec-21E P/E of 26x and a P/ABV of 5.7x). ICICIGIs 3QFY20 saw NEP growth of 16.4% YoY (ex crop 22.2% YoY, +10.3% vs. est.) to Rs 24.5bn, decline in COR (calc.) to 99.5% was also better than est., but investment yield of ~7.3% (-80/-114bps YoY/QoQ), weighed on APAT, which at Rs 2.94bn grew +23.0/-14.9% YoY/QoQ, (-2.6% vs. est.)

Improvement in Underwriting Performance and Increase in Motor-TP and Motor-OD GDPI Worked as a Charm.