Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. share price target

Dixon Technologies (Dixon) reported better-than-expected revenue and EBITDA, driven by strong performance of the mobile and EMS segment, while PAT stood lower than our estimates on higher depreciation, interest, and minority interest.

Q3 beat with topline up 117% to Rs 105bn; and PAT 3% below our estimate at Rs 1.7bn

Dixon’s Q3 revenue grew 117% YoY to Rs104.5bn (down 9% QoQ, on seasonality), with margin stable QoQ at 3.7%; growth continued to be led by the Mobile & EMS segment (84% of 9M sales), with segment margin up by ~20bps QoQ. Backed by its strong order book, Dixon expects near double smartphone volume at ~60mn units in FY27E vs ~30mn in FY25E which would thus address ~60-65% of the outsourced opportunity

Revenue growth of 117% was impressive backed by strong performance in the Mobiles & EMS segment (up 190% y-o-y). Management expects to clock a volume of 30 million phones in FY25 and 60 million phones by 2027. Mobile & EMS segments would be significant growth drivers.

We initiate coverage on Dixon Technologies (Dixon) with BUY and DCF-based TP of Rs20,000 (implied Dec-26E EV/EBITDA of ~41x). With management style centered around promoting entrepreneurship and strong execution within the organization, and by closely aligning itself with India’s global manufacturing hub ambition in consumer electronics, Dixon has, over time, successfully gained leadership across verticals and continuously expanded into adjacencies.

Dixon Technologies has signed a binding term sheet with vivo India to undertake OEM business of electronic devices, including smartphones. The company would hold 51% stake in the JV, while vivo India would hold 49%, with no cross-stakes between them

We retain our BUY rating with a revised PT of Rs. 18,800, factoring in a strong revenue/PAT CAGR of 53%/69% over FY2024-FY2027E. The stock currently trades at 82x/62x its FY2026E/FY2027E earnings, respectively.

We assess Dixon’s growth and margin profile beyond PLI in light of market concerns over its long-term growth and margins. In this note, we try to highlight that despite PLI ending in FY26, the mobile segment will continue to deliver healthy growth, driven by client additions, improved wallet share, and export opportunities.

The good growth momentum from Q1 continued for Dixon in Q2, largely from the cell-phone category. Backward integration in mobiles via screen manufacturing is underway while tie-ups for camera modules and mechanicals is being explored.

Overall revenue growth of 133% was led by strong performance in mobiles & EMS (235%), home appliances (22%) and Lightning products (29%) division. Operating profits were higher by 114% to Rs 426 crore, with OPM falling 33 bps.

Q2 revenue jumped 133% YoY, driven by Mobile and EMS growth; EBITDA margin slid 30bps on change in business mix

Dixon Technologies’ (DIXON) recent tie-ups and MoU with HP and Asus for the production of PCs, notebooks, and laptops under IT hardware PLI 2.0 augur well for scaling up its IT hardware revenues from current levels.

Q1 revenue jumped 101% YoY, driven by mobile and EMS growth; EBITDA margin slid 20bps on input cost hike

Q4 revenue jumped 52% YoY, driven by mobile and EMS growth; EBITDA margin down 120bps on input cost hike

The management is confident of healthy revenue growth, led by increasing mobile segment demand, new product launches, and new customer additions across segments. We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock.

Q3 revenue up 2x YoY led by robust growth in mobile & EMS segment; EBITDA margin dips 80bps on higher input costs

Takeaways from Q2FY24: (1) improved business visibility in core mobile division; its revenue contribution likely to improve from current ~50% to 60%+ by FY26, (2) aim on expanding margins by attaining operating leverage, better product mix and higher backward integration, (3) steady growth in exports with likely exports of INR 20-25bn in FY24 the as per company.

Q2 sales up 28% YoY led by a 77% upswing in mobiles & EMS business which offset slow lighting sales

Dixon’s Q1FY24 performance was largely driven by growth in mobile and EMS divisions. Other segments reported revenue decline / flat revenues in line with slowdown in the white goods and durable market in India. Company has added new clients in its mobile business (Itel and Xiaomi).