Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. share price target

Per media articles (refer to link) , the Union Cabinet has approved changes to the Press Note 3 framework for FDI (we await official confirmation by the GoI).

Resetting expectations: Vivo, PLI tick marks to be key manufacturing services (EMS) company of India offering comprehensive EMS solutions with specialized focus across product verticals including mobile, television, washing machine, refrigerators, laptop, lighting, telecom, wearables and hearables, AC printed circuit boards (PCBs), etc. Q3FY26 performance: Dixon reported weak set of results as smartphone volumes came at mere ~0.7 cr units vs expectations of ~1 crore units. Management attributed this to weak industry demand esp. in low to mid-budget phones, post...

Revenue grew 2% YoY (-28% QoQ). Mobile division revenue grew 5% YoY (-27% QoQ)

Dixon’s 3QFY26 revenue/EBITDA came in line with our estimates, though the quarter’s performance was impacted by weak demand in the smartphone industry due to challenges related to higher memory prices and channel inventory.

Component strategy execution to be key factor ahead manufacturing services (EMS) company of India offering comprehensive EMS solutions with specialized focus across product verticals including mobile, television, washing machine, refrigerators, laptop, lighting, telecom, wearables and hearables, AC printed circuit boards (PCBs), etc. Q2FY26 performance: Dixon reported revenue of 14,855 crore (up by (29% YoY/15% QoQ). Mobile and EMS division continued its healthy growth with revenue of 13,361 crore (up by 41% YoY/15% QoQ). Company is in-line to achieve 40-42...

Growth momentum sustains in Q2 as revenue grew 29% YoY /16% QoQ. Mobile division revenue grew 41% YoY/15% QoQ

Dixon’s strong mobiles-led growth continues, with 42–45m/60–62m volumes targets for FY26/FY27. The Longcheer relationship transitioning into a JV provides visibility on sustained volumes post-PLI, while a joint
design facility under planning marks Dixon’s strategic pivot toward the ODM model.

Growth momentum sustains in Q1 as revenue grew 95% YoY /25% QoQ. Mobile division revenue grew 125% YoY/28% QoQ

Dixon logged a robust Q1, with revenue up 95% YoY (above consensus) led by the Mobile and EMS segment, on strong volume growth across customer brands.

Dixon’s strong Q4/FY25 revenue was driven by robust growth in the mobile category, with volumes reaching 28.3m in FY25; it targets 42m–45m/60m–62m units for FY26/FY27.

Q3 beat with topline up 117% to Rs 105bn; and PAT 3% below our estimate at Rs 1.7bn

Dixon Technologies (Dixon) reported better-than-expected revenue and EBITDA, driven by strong performance of the mobile and EMS segment, while PAT stood lower than our estimates on higher depreciation, interest, and minority interest.

Dixon’s Q3 revenue grew 117% YoY to Rs104.5bn (down 9% QoQ, on seasonality), with margin stable QoQ at 3.7%; growth continued to be led by the Mobile & EMS segment (84% of 9M sales), with segment margin up by ~20bps QoQ. Backed by its strong order book, Dixon expects near double smartphone volume at ~60mn units in FY27E vs ~30mn in FY25E which would thus address ~60-65% of the outsourced opportunity

Revenue growth of 117% was impressive backed by strong performance in the Mobiles & EMS segment (up 190% y-o-y). Management expects to clock a volume of 30 million phones in FY25 and 60 million phones by 2027. Mobile & EMS segments would be significant growth drivers.

We initiate coverage on Dixon Technologies (Dixon) with BUY and DCF-based TP of Rs20,000 (implied Dec-26E EV/EBITDA of ~41x). With management style centered around promoting entrepreneurship and strong execution within the organization, and by closely aligning itself with India’s global manufacturing hub ambition in consumer electronics, Dixon has, over time, successfully gained leadership across verticals and continuously expanded into adjacencies.

Dixon Technologies has signed a binding term sheet with vivo India to undertake OEM business of electronic devices, including smartphones. The company would hold 51% stake in the JV, while vivo India would hold 49%, with no cross-stakes between them

We retain our BUY rating with a revised PT of Rs. 18,800, factoring in a strong revenue/PAT CAGR of 53%/69% over FY2024-FY2027E. The stock currently trades at 82x/62x its FY2026E/FY2027E earnings, respectively.

We assess Dixon’s growth and margin profile beyond PLI in light of market concerns over its long-term growth and margins. In this note, we try to highlight that despite PLI ending in FY26, the mobile segment will continue to deliver healthy growth, driven by client additions, improved wallet share, and export opportunities.

The good growth momentum from Q1 continued for Dixon in Q2, largely from the cell-phone category. Backward integration in mobiles via screen manufacturing is underway while tie-ups for camera modules and mechanicals is being explored.

Q2 revenue jumped 133% YoY, driven by Mobile and EMS growth; EBITDA margin slid 30bps on change in business mix