Vodafone Idea Ltd. share price target

Despite India’s Supreme Court rejecting the curative petition for AGR dues, VIL is hopeful towards a resolution of the arithmetical error in the AGR dues calculation; it has been engaging with the government on the subject.

Vodafone Idea’s (VIL) Q1FY25 print suggests that the company continues to underperform peers, pending acceleration in capex following the completion of fund raise.

Vodafone Idea (VIL) reported a 1%/4% revenue/EBITDA decline sequentially (pre-Ind-AS-116), due to subscriber loss, flat ARPU, and operating deleverage.

FPO NOTE

Vodafone Idea’s (VIL) Q2FY23 underlying mobile revenue grew 0.5% QoQ (based on our calculations) despite 6mn decline in subs.

Vodafone Idea’s (VIL) Q1FY23 cash EBITDA at Rs21bn was slightly lower QoQ on higher costs. ARPU rose 3.2% QoQ to Rs128; it was better on one-additional day. 4G add remained muted on pending 4G capex, and the company is gradually expanding capacity through refarming 3G sites to 4G.

Vodafone Idea’s (VIL) Q4FY22 cash EBITDA at Rs21.2bn was higher than our estimate due to a one-off gain, while revenues came in-line. ARPU rose 7.8% QoQ to Rs124 and VIL said most part of tariff hikes taken in Nov’21 is captured in the revenues. Future ARPU growth will depend on 4G net sub-add, monetisation of digital properties and more tariff hikes.