Vodafone Idea Ltd. share price target

Dependence on Government Support: The company's survival and growth depend on government support, such as the conversion of dues into equity and waiver of bank guarantee (BG) requirements for spectrum auctions. The government's shareholding in...

Vodafone Idea’s (VIL) Q4FY25 ARPU rose 0.6% QoQ (Bharti down 0.1%, RJio +1.4%), on expected lines. However, VIL lost higher-than-expected subs, and data subs dipped marginally by 0.1mn despite initial 4G network expansion.

Vodafone Idea’s (Vi) reported EBITDA declined 1% QoQ (vs.+2% QoQ for RJio/Bharti India wireless), which was above our estimates due to lower network opex (-2% QoQ, energy efficiencies) and SG&A costs (-1% QoQ).

Despite India’s Supreme Court rejecting the curative petition for AGR dues, VIL is hopeful towards a resolution of the arithmetical error in the AGR dues calculation; it has been engaging with the government on the subject.

Vodafone Idea’s (VIL) Q1FY25 print suggests that the company continues to underperform peers, pending acceleration in capex following the completion of fund raise.

Vodafone Idea (VIL) reported a 1%/4% revenue/EBITDA decline sequentially (pre-Ind-AS-116), due to subscriber loss, flat ARPU, and operating deleverage.

FPO NOTE

Vodafone Idea’s (VIL) Q2FY23 underlying mobile revenue grew 0.5% QoQ (based on our calculations) despite 6mn decline in subs.

Vodafone Idea’s (VIL) Q1FY23 cash EBITDA at Rs21bn was slightly lower QoQ on higher costs. ARPU rose 3.2% QoQ to Rs128; it was better on one-additional day. 4G add remained muted on pending 4G capex, and the company is gradually expanding capacity through refarming 3G sites to 4G.