PSP Projects Ltd. share price target

PSP Projects Ltd (PSP), reported a stellar set of numbers which exceeded our expectations. Revenue in Q2FY20 grew by 49% YoY to INR 312 cr against less than 30% quarterly growth trend.

With bids placed for orders worth ~Rs 25-30bn, PSP expects to replenish it order book and maintain order book-to-bill ratio at around 2.5-3x. Opportunities in affordable housing schemes coupled with expansion into newer geographies like Maharashtra and Karnataka would enable the company to scale its operations and help grow and maintain sufficient order book backlog. We believe further re-rating is contingent on this successful transformation. We upgrade PSP to BUY. Key risks (1) Delay in diversification outside Gujrat; (2) Delays in receipt of new awards & (3) Slowdown in Private capex. PSP delivered Rev/EBIDTA/APAT beat of 12/12/15%. Owing to recent price correction we upgrade the stock to BUY from NEU with Rs 579/sh TP (we value EPC business at 16x FY21E EPS). We have maintained our FY21E Rev/EBITDA/APAT estimates.

PSP Projects Ltd (PSP), reported a strong set of numbers which were well in-line with our expectations. Although the company maintained a healthy revenue growth trend.

Cyclical business fundamentals worsened in Q1FY20 Singapore GRMs remained depressed at US$ 3.5/bbl (+8% QoQ, 43% YoY), while petrochemical cracks likely declined ~15% QoQ. We see earnings pressure for RIL and OMCs aggravated by softer light-heavy crude spreads. Higher oil prices (+8% QoQ) offer some respite to upstream PSUs. Lower spot LNG prices (27% QoQ) could lift margins and drive robust earnings for CGD companies, but raise uncertainty over GAIL and PLNG's earnings....

We attended a group meeting with Prahaladbhai Patel, CMD and CEO of PSP Projects (PSPPL). Following are the key takeaways: Targeting ~Rs 35bn near-term bid opportunity: PSPPL has identified several key projects due for award in the near term: (i) Rs 8.5bn riverfront project in Gujarat (multiple small-ticket works of Rs 500mn each); (ii) Rs 8bn unfinished residential project of Nayara Energy in Jamnagar, Gujarat (bids submitted in Mar'19; JMC, PSPPL, Capacite participated); (iii) Rs 15bn residential-cumschool building project of Vedanta in Barmer, Rajasthan; (iv) Rs 1.8bn building project for Gujarat Science City, Ahmedabad; (v) others worth Rs 3bn in Gujarat....

PSP is maxing out on execution at current order book levels of Rs 30bn. It needs to replenish its order book and increase the average size of new order wins. Tailwinds provided by the SDB project execution augurs well for meeting qualification requirements of large government/private orders. PSP needs to increase its share of order book in the Mumbai/Bengaluru regions and reduce reliance on Gujarat. We believe further re-rating is contingent on this successful transformation. We maintain BUY. Key risks (1) Delay in diversification; (2) Slow private capex recovery; and (3) High interest rates. We maintain BUY on PSP with an increased TP of Rs 579/sh (vs Rs 550 earlier). We have upgraded our FY21E Rev/EBITDA/APAT estimate by 4.4/4.4/5.2%

PSP Projects Ltd (PSP), reported a mixed set of numbers. Although the company maintained healthy growth trend; momentum slowed partially in the last quarter of previous financial year.

Maintain BUY with a TP of Rs 603/sh (18x Dec-20E EPS). With a large contribution of ~Rs 0.9bn revenue coming from SDB (~Rs 2.3bn in 9MFY19) PSP posted a strong 53/24% YoY/QoQ top line growth. Margins continued to remain at the upper end of the 12-14% guidance band. With no significant interest outgo, PAT came at Rs 215mn (+41/22% YoY/QoQ).

PSP Projects Ltd (PSP), an efficient and organised constructor in the medium ticket size institutional and industrial construction segment, reported strong set of numbers in Q3FY19.

PSP Projects Ltd (PSP) is an efficient and organised constructor in the medium ticket size institutional and industrial construction segment in and around Gujarat.