ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. share price target

ICICI Prudential reported a ~34% y-o-y growth in APE, albeit on a lower base led by strong growth across its distribution channels. VNB margins stood at 24% vs estimates of 24.5% and 30% y-o-y.

In 1QFY25, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU) reported 34.4% YoY growth in APE to INR19.6b (4% miss). APE in ULIPs grew 78% YoY.

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU) reported a 10% y-o-y/5% y-o-y growth in APE in Q4FY24/ FY24. Value of New Business (VNB) fell ~26% y-o-y/ 19% y-o-y in Q4FY24/FY24, while VNB margin stood at ~21.5%/ 24.6% in Q4FY24/ FY24.

IPRU reported a mixed performance in Q4/FY24, where the slight miss in VNB
margins was offset by a minor beat in APE, which led to VNB in line with our
estimates. The negative surprise came in at Rs2.9bn (~0.8% of FY23EV) due to
negative mortality variance in EV on account of IBNR/IBNER adjustments
related to the credit life portfolio.

In 4QFY24, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance (IPRU) reported 9.6% YoY growth
in APE to INR36.16b. The protection and ex-ULIP individual savings segments
declined YoY by 4.6% and 19.9%, respectively. ULIPs grew 77% YoY.

Adverse impact of product mix (higher linked/par) along with higher cost (commission and opex) and overall competitive environment led to a bigger-than-expected drop in VNB margin to 21.5%/24.6% in Q4FY24/FY24 versus 32% in FY23.

APE grew 10% YoY in Q4 (+5% YoY in FY24) beating our estimate; market share gain in individual APE is a key positive

Policy Rates: Global central banks actions in retrospect. IPRU: Green shoots of growth

Individual APE market share grew to 10%/12.4% in Jan/Feb'24 from 8.7% in 9MFY24 a positive surprise