Nazara Technologies Ltd. share price target

Kiddopia reports subscriber addition after 10 quarters. We cut our EPS estimates by 11%/8% for FY27E/FY28E as we re-align our depreciation assumptions post de-consolidation of Nodwin. NAZARA IN's operational performance was better than our estimate with EBITDA margin of 16.7% (PLe 15.4%) driven by healthy performance in the console publishing and offline (SMAASH + Funky Monkey) businesses. Even Nodwin registered a sharp turnaround with revenues up by 1.6x with an EBITDA margin of 15.3% as profitability improved across multiple owned IP's. Decision to de-consolidate...

In Q2FY26, Nazara recognised an impairment of INR 9.2bn on its investment in Moonshine Technologies due to the regulatory ban on RMG. Nodwin was de-consolidated in Q2FY26.

We cut our EPS estimates by 32%/15% for FY26E/FY27E amid widening losses in Nodwin and PokerBaazi. In 1QFY26, Nodwin/PokerBaazi reported an EBITDA loss of Rs110mn/Rs739mn respectively. NAZARA IN reported an in-line performance with revenues of Rs4,988mn (PLe Rs4,872mn) and EBITDA margin of 9.5% (PLe 10.0%) while PAT was aided by revaluation gain of ~Rs660mn in an investee company, STAN. NAZARA IN's plans to cede control in Nodwin by not participating in the fund raise reflects renewed focus on profitability over scale. Even the latest acquisition of Curve Games (EBITDA...

We cut our PAT estimates by 15%/6% for FY26E/FY27E as we re-align our depreciation forecast & profitability assumptions for Nodwin and downgrade NAZARA to a HOLD (earlier BUY) with a revised TP of Rs1,241 amid 26% rise in stock price over the last 1 month. NAZARA reported an EBITDA margin of 9.8% (PLe 9.0%) while PAT was impacted by an impairment charge of Rs153mn pertaining to the erstwhile accessories business. We expect sales CAGR of 27.5% over next 2 years led by the recent acquisition of Curve Games with an...

15%/7% in FY26E/FY27E as we re-align our growth & profitability assumptions change in revenue recognition policy of Space & Time (Ad-Tech subsidiary). However, our PAT estimates have been revised downwards by...

Nazara Technologies (Nazara) delivered robust Q3FY25 growth, led by ad-tech and gaming segments. Growth in ad-tech was led by the recent acquisition in the UK (Space and Time Media).

Q1FY25 was muted, given sustained weakness in Kiddopia. While there were some positives such as ARPU improvement and reduction in churn, subscribers continued to decline.

On 3 July’24, we hosted Nodwin’s management for an interaction with investors. Nodwin has increased its stake in Freaks 4U gaming, from 13.51% to 57%.

Q2 is a seasonally weak quarter for Nodwin and GEL. Both these segments were impacted. However, strong growth in Sportskeeda and profitability improvement in Ad-tech helped balance the quarter. New acquisitions such as PFN and Animal Jam scaled up well in Q2FY24.

The pattern analysis on the weekly timeframe shows that the price action has entered into its stage 2 following a brief consolidation phase. The lateral trend following a 71% decline is a potential sign of accumulation and an indication that the drawdowns were finally arrested.

Nazara Technologies’ Q1FY24 revenue was below estimates due to 1) deferment of key eSports launches to H2CY23 and 2) decline in Adtech’s growth due to client rationalisation. However, EBITDA margin expansion (+340 bps QoQ) materialised in Q1FY24 broadly in line with our estimates.

Nazara Technologies’ Q4FY23 revenue was in line, but earnings beat our estimates as eSports EBITDA margin rose sharply (~430bps YoY). Also, Kiddopia’s EBITDA margin expanded ~680bps QoQ led by US$1.4 sequential decline in cost per trial. Number of Kiddopia subscribers grew marginally QoQ.

We initiate coverage on Nazara Technologies with BUY rating, given visibility of strong revenue growth in eSports and gradual profitability improvement in gamified early learning (GEL). The stock has corrected ~70% from its peak (of Rs1,601) and is now trading at its all-time low of Rs486.