Firstsource Solutions Ltd. share price target

Results below estm; Guides steep cut in Q1 and Recovery Q2 onwards Firstsource (FSL) reported below expectation results, with a sequential revenue growth of 0.6% in CC terms (our estimate was 1.5%) due to weakness in healthcare segment (COVID impact - USD6mn) and OPM decline of about 40bps QoQ at 10.8% (our estimate was 11.2%). Healthcare segment de-grew by 1.3% QoQ as Providers clients faced decline in government funding in Feb and reduced number of elective surgeries and Payers volume got impacted as it witnessed lesser filling...

Revenues in the quarter were impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. The company has indicated at supply side issues and client specific challenges impacting Q4FY20 revenues. In the near term, FSL expects pressure in healthcare business (due to lower elective surgeries & pricing pressure), challenges in top client (due to slowdown in UK economy) and seasonality in collections. Hence, we expect revenues to decline 10% QoQ in Q1FY21E with margins falling 200 bps. Going forward, we expect a gradual recovery in the collection business (led by higher origination business and higher...

The spread of Covid-19 has led to lockdowns in many countries globally and could have adverse economic implications. In addition, the recent fall in crude prices could also have an adverse impact of fiscal health of oil producing countries. As a result, IT companies, which have considerable exposure to verticals such as oil, energy & utilities; banking & capital markets; manufacturing and travel & transport could see an adverse impact from the ongoing crisis. Companies like Wipro, Infosys in large cap and MindTree, NIIT Tech, Sonata software, Cyient, Accelya Solutions among...

Firstsource reported a strong quarter with operating revenue witnessing growth of 7.5% QoQ. Growth was driven by the mortgage business (19% of revenue, 34.4% QoQ growth) and collections business (10% of revenue, 4.5% growth). Top customer (19.5% of revenue) also witnessed healthy revival in growth with 5.9% sequential growth after consistent pressure in last few quarters. As per the management, some amount of stability has started to come in the top client with ramp up in smaller projects within the client. Going forward, the management cited strong seasonality to play in...

Growth to be driven by collection, mortgage & digital Growth in the quarter was led by US mortgage business and momentum in some large clients in BFSI. As indicated by the management, growth visibility pertains to at least next two quarters in the mortgage business. In addition to this, BFSI, collection business and healthcare provider are expected to be one of the main drivers of growth going into FY20E. Accelerating digital revenues (~10.5% of revenue in Q1FY20 vs. 9% in FY19) and the company's internal target of reaching 13-15% of revenues in FY20E...

EBITDA margins declined 10 bps QoQ to 13.8% (vs. our estimate 14.6%) mainly on account of higher other expenses (up 9.1% QoQ) Reported PAT rose 5.7% QoQ to | 98.1 crore mainly on the back of lower tax rate (11.4% as percentage of PBT vs. 14.4% in Q2FY19) In-sourcing by top client, payer ramp down to impact FY19E topline Rupee revenues grew 3.2% QoQ but were below our expectations. This was mainly due to continuous headwinds in healthcare payer business impacting top 2-5 client growth (declined 5.7% QoQ). Further, revenue...

Revenues from operations grew 3.9% QoQ to | 954.7 crore (above our 2.3% de-growth and | 897.5 crore estimate) mainly led by rupee depreciation and higher growth in non-top five clients. Geographically, the US reported healthy 6.1% QoQ growth while vertically BFSI led growth & reported 6.9% QoQ growth The EBITDA margin remained flat QoQ at 13.9% mainly led by higher...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues from operations grew 2.4% QoQ to | 919.1 crore, above our 1.4% de-growth and | 885.1 crore estimate. Revenues in constant currency grew 1.1% sequentially At 13.9%, EBITDA margins contracted ~80 bps QoQ, above our 13.5% and 130 bps decline estimate. The better-than-expected...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues from operations grew 1.1% QoQ to | 897.3 crore and were below our 4.9% growth and | 930.4 crore estimate At 14.8%, EBITDA margins expanded 170 bps QoQ and were way above our 13.5% and 40 bps expansion estimate. Healthy margin expansion took place on account of lower-than-expected employee expenses (67.2% as a percentage of revenue vs. 68% expectation) and lower other expenses (down 2.7% QoQ)...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Revenues from operations grew 1.6% QoQ to | 887.2 crore and was above our 1% de-growth and | 864.4 crore estimate At 13.1%, EBITDA margins expanded 50 bps QoQ and was above our 12.8% and 20 bps expansion estimate. Margin expansion came...