CESC Ltd. share price target

Energy sold during Q1FY20, in the standalone business declined 7.6% at 305.7 crore units vs. our estimate of 284.7 crore units while realisation was at | 7.7/Kwhr vs. our expectation of |7.5 Kwhr. Energy purchased was at 177.4 crore units vs. our estimates of 165 crore units. The same has increased YoY by 10.3%. On a plant wise basis, Budge Budge plant generated 157.6 crore units while Southern generated 14.2 crore units for Q1FY20. Hence, total generation was at 171.8 crore units for Q1FY20. On the PLFs side, Budge Budge plant reported 96.2% while southern plant reported...

Standalone (S/A) PAT grew by a healthy ~18% YoY to INR2.2b (our estimate: INR1.9b), led by higher sales (up ~8% YoY to 3.1BU) due to strong demand (likely because of seasonal factors). T&D; losses are estimated to have remained steady at ~9-10%. CESC has started reporting consol. quarterly performance from this quarter. Consol. PAT was up ~9% YoY to INR2.3b in 1QFY20....

CESC Limited's (CESC) standalone business generates steady earnings and cashflow, while we expect its loss-making subsidiary Dhariwal Infrastructure and the Rajasthan distribution franchisee (DF) to pare losses and turn profitable in FY2021/FY2022. We believe that CESC is trading at a reasonable valuation of 9x FY2021E EPS and 0.9x FY2021E book value on a standalone basis. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on CESC with revised SoTP based price target (PT) of Rs. 905 (increased on account of a higher valuation multiple for...

Energy sold during Q4FY19, in the standalone business declined 4.2% at 229.1 crore units vs. our estimate of 2485 crore units while the realisation was at | 7.25/Kwhr vs. 6.82/Kwhr in Q4FY18. Energy purchased was at 104.3 crore units vs. our estimate of 125.4 crore units. The same has declined 21% YoY. For FY19, power purchase was down at 558.1 crore units vs. 563.7 crore units in FY18. On a plant wise basis, the Budge Budge plant generated 601.5 crore units while southern generated 2.84 crore units for FY19. The company continues to impress on reducing T&D; losses as the same came...

demand off-take of power during FY2019, led to lower generation of power both at Budge Budge unit and Southern unit (down by 0.3% and 6.6% y-o-y respectively). Power purchased also remained lower by 1.0% during the year. This led to 0.4% decline in revenues y-o-y, as realisation also did not support and was lower by 0.8% y-o-y. Though PLF was lower at both...

FY19 consol. adj. PAT grew 43% YoY to INR11.8b (consol. numbers are reported annually) v/s our est. of INR10.1b. The strong performance was driven by sharp reduction in losses at Dhariwal and lower losses in distribution franchisee (DF). Standalone (S/A): PAT grew ~8% YoY to INR9.4b. T&D; losses were lower ~70bp YoY to 9% (down ~260bp in the last three years). Sales were flat at 10.4BU due to weak demand and weather conditions. Capitalization is estimated at INR3.8b, implying regulated equity increase of ~3% YoY in FY19. Haldia: PAT was broadly unchanged at INR3.2b as it continues to benefit from...

CESC reported lower-than-expected Q3FY19 results on account of lower revenues and higher costs, which, in turn, impacted EBITDA. Revenues came in below our estimates at | 1707 crore vs. our estimate of | 1825 crore. Generation was flat YoY while energy sold was down 2% YoY at 229.5 crore units In Q3FY19, power sold at Haldia Energy was 107.4 crore units while Chandrapur plant posted ~100% YoY generation at 88 crore units Absolute EBITDA came in at | 202 crore, significantly below our...

5 February 2019 3QFY19 on account of lower T&D; losses and interest cost. Sales in the Kolkata distribution circle declined 2.1% YoY to 2.3BU, given the strong base (increased 12% YoY in 3Q last year). Revenue was flat YoY at INR17.1b. T&D; losses declined 200bp YoY to 9.8%. Power exports stood at 135MU, as against 212MU in the year-ago period. EBITDA, including rate regulatory item, increased 6% YoY to INR4b (in-line). Depreciation was flat YoY at INR1.1b. Finance cost declined 3% YoY/QoQ to INR1.2b.

CESC Ventures, which got listed on 25 January 2019. Generation and revenue remained flat; however, EBITDA came in below our expectations due to higher operating expenses and fuel costs. PAT was marginally above our estimate on favorable rate-regulated income. In Q3FY19, PLF improved across the Haldia and Chandrapur plants, driven largely by the festive season which led to a rise in power demand. The Chandrapur plant's case IV PPA with MSPGCL was extended by another 45 days until January 13, 2019. We expect Chandrapur's loss to narrow to Rs1.2bn in FY19 from Rs2.0bn in FY18....

7 January 2019 Maharashtra DISCOM recently concluded auction of two distribution circles under the distribution franchisee (DF) model. The license is for 20 years, extendable by 10 years. More than 80% of the energy supply is to industrial/commercial customers. Based on preliminary data, Malegaon circle is equal to CESCs Kota distribution franchisee circle in terms of input energy. The input energy was 677MU and AT&C; losses stood at 47%. The input energy was 677MU and AT&C; losses stood at 47%. The contract is for 20 years, extendable by 10 years. The circle is adjacent to Torrents existing Bhiwandi operations. In terms of input energy, the circle is ~20% of size of its Bhiwandi operations. The winning bidder is selected on the price of input energy it will pay the DISCOM. DF has no role in fixing tariff (it is determined by the regulator for the DISCOMs operating area).