CESC Ltd. share price target

CESC Limited's (CESC) Q1FY2021 standalone PAT declined by 38.2% y-o-y (down by 46.4% q-o-q) to Rs. 134 crore, below our estimate of Rs. 193 crore due to lower plant-load factor (PLF) based incentive income as volume slumped by 30.7% y-o-y to 2,118 million units and higher per unit cost of electricity purchased (up 15% y-o-y). However, the decline of 14.7% y-o-y in the consolidated PAT to Rs. 198 crore was much lower as compared to the decline in PAT for the standalone business due to: 1) better profitability of Dhariwal Infrastructure (PAT of Rs. 24 crore versus a net loss of Rs. 24 crore in Q1FY2020) and 2) reduction in losses at distribution franchisee...

Loss at Dhariwal Infrastructure reduced to Rs. 10 crore in FY2020 as compared to Rs. 93 crore in FY2019. Loss at distribution franchisee shrunk to Rs. 38 crore in FY2020 as compared to Rs. 60 crore in FY2019....

CESC reported a decent operational performance in Q4FY20. Revenues were in line with estimates while lower other expenses led to a beat in EBITDA. However, a shortfall in other income negated the EBITDA beat. Consequently, PAT was marginally lower than estimates. However, on the subsidiaries front, the performance of all generation and distribution...

CESCs 4QFY20 results highlight the benefit of improved performance for its distribution franchisee (DF) and Dhariwal businesses with consol. On the other hand, S/A PAT declined 19% YoY, leading to While the muted power demand environment could impact profitability in the near term, the longer-term story remains intact. Despite factoring in the tightening of norms at Haldia and for the S/A, the stock trades attractively at 7x FY21E In 4QFY20, S/A PAT declined ~19% YoY to INR2.5b (20% below est. Consolidated PAT increased ~7% YoY to INR4.4b in the quarter, largely on the back of improved performance for its DF and Dhariwal businesses. Despite factoring in the tightening of norms at Haldia and for the S/A, the stock trades attractively at 7x FY21E Further, the un-tied generation capacity and scale-up in DFs has the potential to boost earnings.

Q4FY20 earnings are expected to be disappointing in Emkay's power coverage universe. Demand across India fell significantly in the second half of March after the country was locked down to contain the spread of Covid-19. Thus, PLF across stations was impacted, but availability picked up due to improved inventory levels. However, the power ministry's move to provide a moratorium on bill payments is likely to impact discoms' collection efficiency and would stretch its working capital. This is likely to have a cascading impact on the electricity chain of discoms, transmission, gencos and eventually the banks, all of...

Energy sold during Q3FY20, in the standalone business declined 7.7% to 211.9 crore units vs. our estimate of 222.8 crore units while realisation was at | 7.8/kWHR vs. our expectation of 7.5 kWHR. Total generation was down 10.3% YoY at 122.4 crore units. Energy purchased were at 126.7 crore units vs. our estimate of 126.2 crore units. Plant load factor (PLF) of the Budge Budge, southern plants for Q3FY20 were at 69.2%, 26.3%, respectively. Revenues were at | 1648 crore vs. our estimate of | 1659.8 crore, in line with estimates. On the other hand, consolidated revenues came in at | 2344 crore...

Energy sold during Q2FY20, in the standalone business, declined 1.4% at 171.3 crore units vs. our estimate of 182 crore units while realisation was at | 7.7/kWHR vs. our expectation of 7.5 kWHR. Total generation was down 1.9% YoY at 171.3 crore units. Energy purchased was at 165.7 crore units vs. our estimate of 168 crore units. The same has increased YoY by 3.4%....

CESC Limited (CESC) reported strong consolidated Q2FY2020 results with 12.6% y-o-y increase in PAT to Rs. 366 crore, given strong performance of Noida distribution business (132% y-o-y rise in PAT to Rs. 65 crore) and sharp reduction in losses at Dhariwal to Rs. 25 crore (vs. loss of Rs. 63 crore in Q2FY2019). However, standalone performance was muted with marginal 1.5% y-o-y increase in PAT to Rs. 275 crore, given only 1.7% rise in power sales volume. The board of directors has decided not to pursue the demerger of the generation...

PAT was up ~13% YoY to INR3.6b in the quarter on carrying cost recovery at Noida (~INR150-200m). For 1HFY20, PAT was Profits at Noida rose YoY to INR790m (v/s est. INR450m) on favorable order Distribution franchisees net loss was slightly higher YoY at INR30m (v/s est. Crescent and Surya (RE)s PAT was higher YoY at INR170m (v/s est. Dhariwals net loss stood at INR250m. While YoY (INR630m loss in 2QFY19), the loss may appear lower; the company has noted that it is on account of re- classification and possible adjustments in the previous year. Generation at Dhariwal was 14% lower YoY at 504MUs. Dhariwal has signed a PPA with Maharashtra for 170MW supply of power from Nov19 for a one-year period. Untied generation capacity and scale-up of DFs have a potential to boost earnings. The stock trades attractively at ~8x FY21E P/E even as visibility of earnings at Dhariwal and DFs improve, and factoring in the tightening of norms at Haldia and S/A.

CESC Limited's (CESC) standalone Q1FY2020 profit after tax (PAT) rose strongly by 18% y-o-y to Rs. 217 crore led by higher power sales volume (up 8% y-o-y) and improved realization (up 1.2% y-o-y). The company started reporting consolidated financials from Q1FY2020 and consolidated PAT rose by only 9.4% y-o-y to Rs. 232 crore as strong performance from standalone business was partially offset by lower profit contribution from subsidiaries. We believe that CESC is trading at an attractive valuation of 9.1x FY2021E EPS and 0.9x...