CESC Ltd. share price target

CESC’s Q3FY25 consolidated revenue/operating profit/profit grew by 1.5%/ 0.4%/ -5.7% y-o-y to Rs. 3,861/ 910 / 265 crore. The earnings were impacted because of higher Malegaon losses and weak standalone result

CESC’s consolidated PAT increased by 1.4% y-o-y to Rs. 353 crore with good performance in Haldia and Dhariwal but it was dragged down by the standalone business and Malegaon DF.

CESC’s aggressive RE growth strategy with a plan to add 3.2GW (capex of ~Rs. 12-13k cr) in the next four years makes a good value proposition given the lower RE cost.

Consolidated PAT increased by 9% y-o-y to Rs. 378 crore with good performance in standalone business, Haldia and Dhariwal and dragged down by Malegaon DF.

Consolidated PAT declined by 7% y-o-y to Rs. 415 crore due to higher operating and depreciation expenses which was compensated by a lower tax rate

Stable Q3 with 4% YoY revenue growth to Rs 19bn and flattish net profit at Rs 1.9bn

CESC’s reported consolidated revenues for Q3FY23 were up 11.3% YoY to Rs34.6bn, while EBITDA was flat YoY at Rs8.3bn and PAT down 3% YoY at Rs3.2bn. Key factors impacting consolidated profit during Q3FY23 included: 1) 104% YoY increase in Noida Power profit at Rs550mn on higher power demand and incentives; 2) steady performance of the Kolkata distribution business;

CESC’s reported consolidated revenue for Q2FY23 was up 21.3% YoY to Rs42.7bn, while EBITDA declined 9.9% YoY to Rs8.5bn and PAT was down 9% YoY at Rs3.1bn.

CESC reported stable earnings in Q1FY23. On consolidated basis, while its reported revenues were up 28.1% YoY to Rs42.5bn, PAT was up 5.5% YoY at Rs2.9bn.

We participated in RP-SG Group’s virtual investor conference on 22nd Nov’21 in which CESC explained in detail its ongoing technological digitalisation initiatives, and laid out its growth strategy. Despite key systems in place, CESC aims to become more digital and flexible on the distribution front, improving its system and consumer understanding so that capex is done on just-in-time basis resulting in higher returns.

Despite steady 8% YoY growth in Q2 pretax income, consolidated net income fell 11% due to lower tax rate in comparable quarter

Torrent Power (TPW) has entered into an SPA for 100% acquisition of Surya Vidyut Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of CESC. Such transactions are typically good
for one and not for the other; however, in this case, it is a win-win for both due to
the difference in their strategic intents – TPW wanted to add RE capacity without
participating in highly competitive bids, while CESC aims to grow its distribution
business and move away from RE generation. Further, CESC will receive a value
which is higher than the one ascribed to these low IRR assets.

Dhariwal turns profitable, performance of DFs to improve CESC's 4QFY21 result highlights a modest recovery in the standalone business. Volumes in the standalone entity improved, but grew just 6% YoY on a low base. Standalone PAT rose 8% YoY, while consolidated PAT fell 4%, led by lower profit at Dhariwal and Crescent and Surya. Dhariwal has turned profitable, and DFs are showing signs of improvement. CESC's integrated business in Kolkata generates a high RoE and strong cash flows. We factor in tightening of norms at Haldia and for the standalone...

Energy sold in Q3FY21, in the standalone business, grew 1.8% to 215.7 crore units vs. our estimate of 221.7 crore units while realisation was at | 7.69/kWHR vs. our expectation of 7.8 kWHR. Total generation was down 1.2% YoY at 120.9 crore units. PLF of the Budge Budge and southern plants for Q3FY21 was at 71% (69% in Q3FY20) and 13% (26% in Q3FY20), respectively. Revenues came in at | 1659 crore vs. our estimate of | 1729.3 crore, mainly on account of lesser-than-expected energy sold. On a consolidated basis, revenues came in at | 2539 crore, up 8.3%, which was...

CESC's 3Q results highlight volume recovery in the S/A business. Volumes in S/A were just 1% YoY lower (v/s 1H: -21% YoY). S/A PAT was up 3% YoY. Consol. PAT, on the other hand, grew 21% YoY, partly led by profit at Dhariwal and improved performance at Crescent & Surya. Performances at Dhariwal and distribution franchises (DFs) would continue to improve. Furthermore, the co. has declared an interim dividend of INR45/sh, highlighting the co.'s willingness to return excess cash. Despite factoring in the tightening of norms at Haldia and S/A, the stock trades...

CESC's management indicated that power demand in Kolkata (key area of operation) has normalised and impact of COVID-19 (lower PLF-related incentive) has passed; company has guided for 9% y-o-y growth in PAT in H2FY21. Turnaround of Dhariwal Infrastructure (guided for PAT of Rs. 75-80 crore for FY21 versus loss of Rs. 10 crore in FY20) to sustain as PLF of Chandrapur plant has improved. Rajasthan DF losses would reduce in FY21 and is expected to turn profitable by FY22. Consistent improvement in performance of subsidiaries would aid gradual re-rating of CESC. Concerns of higher receivables (at Rs. 2,000 crore as of September versus normal levels of...

CESC's management indicated that power demand in Kolkata (key area of operation) has normalised and impact of COVID-19 (lower PLF-related incentive) has passed; company has guided for 9% y-o-y growth in PAT in H2FY21. Turnaround of Dhariwal Infrastructure (guided for PAT of Rs. 75-80 crore for FY21 versus loss of Rs. 10 crore in FY20) to sustain as PLF of Chandrapur plant has improved. Rajasthan DF losses would reduce in FY21 and is expected to turn profitable by FY22. Consistent improvement in performance of subsidiaries would aid gradual re-rating of CESC. Concerns of higher receivables (at Rs. 2,000 crore as of September versus normal levels of...

Discoms in key states Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, J&K; and Telangana account for 79% of the total overdue to gencos. Disbursements under the Atmanirbhar scheme have been very slow due to the reluctance or delay on the part of state governments to adhere to the stringent norms put forth by the PFC and the REC. So far, total loans of Rs1.18tn and Rs311bn have been sanctioned and disbursed to discoms by the PFC and the REC, respectively. We are of the opinion that discoms' overdues could take a while to moderate with the revival in demand that could further increase power offtake. However, the improvement in...

Energy sold during Q2FY21, in the standalone business, fell 10.9% at 260.2 crore units vs. our estimate of 290.2 crore units while realisation was at | 7.6/kWhr vs. our expectation of 7.7 kWhr. Total generation was down 10.1% YoY at 154 crore units. PLF of the Budge Budge and southern plants for Q2FY21 were at 93% (94% in Q2FY20) and 0% (36% in Q2FY20) respectively. Revenues came in at | 1989 crore vs. our estimate of | 2234.9 crore, mainly on account of lower than expected energy sold. On the other hand, consolidated revenues came in at | 2990 crore, flat YoY indicating pick...

This, given the lack of a revised tariff order, impacted efficiency Consolidated PAT decreased ~15% YoY to INR2.0b in the quarter, partly supported by an improved performance at Dhariwal. Dhariwal reported profit of INR240m (v/s loss of ~INR240m in 1QFY20) on account of a new PPA signed and the pass-through of higher coal cess in tariff. Dhariwal had signed a 185MW PPA with Maharashtra in 3QFY20, and the same has been extended up to 31 Losses at DFs in Rajasthan declined to INR330m in 1QFY21, from INR530m in 1QFY20, despite lower demand. The stock trades at an attractive ~6x FY22E P/E, even as earnings visibility at Dhariwal improves, and factoring the tightening of norms at Haldia and S/A. We also expect the performances of DFs to improve as it gains a better understanding of the circles and leverages from its experience in CESCs generation assets generate healthy FCF.