Cohance Lifesciences Ltd. share price target

4QFY25 consolidated proforma sales were 11.4% above our estimates; EBITDA/APAT was -0.4% and -5.9% below estimates

Cohance Lifesciences’ (Cohance) Q4FY25 pro forma financial performance was below our expectation. Momentum across its pharma CDMO (+31% YoY) was strong, while specialty chemical CDMO business growth (+75%) is beginning to recover.

Suven’s rapid ascendance in the CDMO space has been remarkable. It has journeyed from being a small molecule-focused CDMO to achieving eminence as one of the few CDMOs in India that offers contract manufacturing of oligonucleotides and ADCs.

ADC is an evolving second line of treatment in oncology. The company expects market size to grow to US$ 50bn by FY33 from US$ 5bn in FY22

Suven is currently on a three pronged investment plan, 1) Relocating R&D centre, 2) Replacement and upgradation of blocks at Suryapet facility and 3) Additional new block in line with FDA regulations at Pashamylaram facility...

The formulation business has registered a de-growth of 16% owing to the general slowness in the segment. With a strong order book and customer base in the CDMO segment , the company is poised to sustain its growth momentum in the long term....

Q4FY21 revenue grew 40.3% YoY to | 259 crore amid 51.3% YoY growth in pharma CRAMS sales to | 137.7 crore. Specialty chemical CRAMS also posted robust growth of 35.1% YoY to | 109 crore. However, formulation sales fell 36% YoY to | 12.1 crore. EBITDA margins declined 566 bps YoY to 36.2% mainly due to lower gross margin performance (down 658 bps YoY at 64.7%). Subsequently, EBITDA grew 21.3% YoY to | 94 crore. PAT was up 12% YoY to | 83 crore. Delta vis-a-vis EBITDA was due to higher tax rate...

The quarter saw good product mix as well as strong project execution which aided the CDMO segment performance. In the formulation business, 6 ANDAs have already been approved, out of which 5 have been commercialized including one during Q3FY21. With a strong order book and customer base in the CDMO segment as well as increasing revenue from the formulation segment, the company is poised to sustain its growth momentum in the long term. Hence, we upgrade our rating from Accumulate to Buy with a rolled...

Overall 15-20% revenue growth guidance for FY21 continued, hope to achieve same in FY22; EBITDA margins sustainable above 40% o Pharma CRAMS to also grow 15-20% YoY; specialty chemical...

We initiate coverage on Suven Pharmaceuticals (SPL), a pure-play new chemical entity (NCE)-based contract development & manufacturing organisation (CDMO) and a highly under-researched stock, with BUY and TP of Rs580 (40% upside). India being at the cusp of a multi decadal opportunity in Innovator pharma outsourcing, with rising R&D; spends and outsourcing penetration, further supplemented by China+1 strategy, is a bazooka for CDMO players. SPL's eminently successful execution track record of NCE-based projects, best-in-class EBITDA margins and robust return ratios are a testimony to the quality of...

Suven Pharma reported soft 2Q. Revenues declined 13% YoY (flattish QoQ) with EBITDA margins at 41% (down 500bps YoY and 600bps QoQ). Lower revenues from specialty chemicals segment impacted margins. Further, lower profit share from Rising Pharma also impacted profits (down 20% YoY and QoQ). Nonetheless, management reiterated its guidance of 15% growth in top-line and 15-20% growth in bottom-line with EBITDA margins at 40%+ for FY21. This implies a robust 2H. Suven is on track in launching molecules (two in specialty chemicals over FY21-22 and one in pharma) in...

Q2 results were lower than I-direct estimates on margin and profitability front. Revenues were in line with I-direct estimates. Despite pandemic and high base, the company has guided 15-20% growth based on strong order book position (albeit some expected delays). Regarding the optically high capex plan of | 600 crore for modernisation and technology upgradation, we believe this has to do with the need to cater to the changed priorities and requirements at the behest of the clients, the benefits of which may be visible in the long run. We continue to emphasise on the strong execution...

Suven Pharma has turned ex-bonus from September 25, 2020 pursuant to the board approval granted for the issue of bonus shares in its meeting held on September 16, 2020. The record date for the same has been fixed as September 28, 2020. The board has recommended the issue of bonus shares in proportion of one bonus share (face value of | 1 each) for every equity share held (i.e. 1:1). Consequently, the share price has changed to | 369/share from | 738/share. Accordingly, our target price has also been revised to | 385/share from | 770/share earlier. After the recent run up, the...