Retailing share price target

Top Conviction Ideas (Retail) - Trent, Ethos.

Trent Ltd; Ethos Ltd

Top Sector Ideas - Retail Q4FY24

Top Sector Ideas - Retail Q3FY24

We hosted the management of two industrial packaging companies in our Nuvama Emerging Ideas Conference 2023,' namely Time Technoplast (TIME) and Pyramid Technoplast (PYRAMID).

Top Sector Ideas - Retail

For Avenue Supermarts, we expect consolidated revenues to grow 18% YoY to | 8766 crore. Avenue Supermarts has continued its accelerated store expansion and added 21 stores in Q4FY22 (18 stores added in Q3FY22, 50 stores for FY22) taking total store count to 284 stores. Fashion retailers have witnessed revenue recovery in the range of 107-114% of pre Covid level. We expect ABFRL, V-Mart and Bata to report revenue recovery rate of 114%, 112%, 107%, respectively. Among the apparel retail space, Trent was the outperformer with company registering industry best revenue growth in...

Demand recovery, store expansion acceleration augurs well Titan's jewellery division continues to gain market share with better than industry performance. As per channel checks, regional jewellery players have reached ~85-90% of pre-Covid levels while Titan's jewellery division has surpassed pre-Covid levels in Q2FY22. With softening of gold prices (down 8% YoY) and healthy pent-up demand we expect Titan's jewellery revenue growth of 61% YoY (up 78% YoY, excluding bullion sales worth | 391 crore). The watches segment also witnessed a rapid recovery in...

The quarter saw the impact of the second wave that virtually led to a shutdown of theatres from the last week of April onwards due to lockdowns across most of India. Furthermore, most lined up releases were also postponed owing to the second wave. There also remains uncertainty on rental waivers this time around. We believe the waiver for second wave closures could be less generous than ~70% that was seen in FY21. The cash burn rate is also likely to increase during the quarter. We estimate EBITDA (ex-Ind-AS) loss of | 153 crore for PVR and EBITDA (ex-Ind-AS)...

Q4FY21 had exhibited a sense of normalcy with revenue recovery across retailers hovering at ~80% of pre-Covid levels. However, lockdowns due to second wave in April, May derailed the recovery process and Q1FY22E performance is expected to be negatively impacted. With a significant surge in Covid-19 cases across some states in India, footfalls dropped to 35% of pre-Covid levels in April 2021 with 45-50% of stores being operational. The situation deteriorated further in May as most states across India announced lockdowns to control the spread of the second Covid wave. Some larger...

and ice cream has grown rapidly in 4Q 5) Skin creams, shampoos and detergents are reporting QoQ improvement while demand for sanitizers has flattened. 6) QSR players expected to report sales between 95-100% despite a strong Jan-Feb21 as recoveries slowed down in march21 due to increased restrictions on account of rising covid cases impacting dine in revenues. Britannia and HUL remain or top picks in the consumer staples space given long consolidation and underperformance from past 12 months. Kansai seems well placed in the paints segment given ~35% discount to APNT and...

The I-direct CD universe is likely to see ~21% YoY growth at the PAT level due to better margins and lower interest cost. We believe, from our coverage, Supreme Industries, Astral Poly, Bajaj Electricals and Kansai Nerolac will be ahead of the peers in terms of bottomline growth....