Indian Economy share price target

Axis Research Scorecard Report for Jan 2024

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services: MMFS reported a mixed quarter with steady asset quality and healthy loan growth (+25% YoY), offset by sustained pressure on NIMs (~6.6%) and subdued disbursements (+7% YoY). Credit costs normalised in Q3 to ~1.5% and remain on track at ~1.5-1.7% in FY24, although the volatility in credit costs remains a concern. MMFS remains focused on building customer (greater affluence) and product diversification (SME, etc.), along with forging partnerships to drive fee income. However, the rising cost of funds amidst a tight liquidity environment and investments in tech and distribution are likely to provide a downside risk to a RoA of ~2.5% by FY25. We reduce our FY24/FY25E earnings estimates by 14%/4% to factor in NIM compression and higher credit costs, maintain ADD with a revised SOTP-based TP of INR290 (standalone at 1.7x Sep-25 ABVPS). Indraprastha Gas: We maintain our BUY recommendation on Indraprastha Gas (IGL) with a target price of INR 490, given (1) strong volume growth of ~11% CAGR over FY24-26E, (2) healthy margins supported by higher allocation of gas from the high-pressure, high-temperature (HPHT) fields to the priority sector, and (3) a strong portfolio of new geographical areas (GAs) ensuring volume growth visibility. Q3FY24 EBITDA/APAT at INR 5.6/3.9bn were up 32/41% YoY respectively but below our estimates, owing to lower-than-expected margins, partially offset by the higher-than-expected volume of 8.5mmscmd (+4% YoY, +2% QoQ). Nuvoco Vistas Corporation: We reiterate a BUY rating for Nuvoco Vistas, maintaining an unchanged TP of INR 515/share (based on 10x its consolidated Mar-26E EBITDA). In...

POWERIND: In-line quarter but valuations overdone; cut to SELL. FY25 Budget Preview: Focus to remain on consolidation. KMB: NIM intact QoQ; higher provisions dull profits. AXSB: Profits subdued despite strong business growth. HAVL: Slow quarter but summer could bring cheer; maintain BUY. KEII: Decent quarter; maintain HOLD. JKCE: Healthy performance but priced in. GLS: Strong margins make up for subdued revenue growth

Quant Report

In December 2023, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation rose.

The unemployment rate fell for the second consecutive month. Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) outflow surged, but mutual funds recorded inflows. Crude oil prices fell, and consumption rose.

Commodity Trends: Global commodity price movements in 2023. CPI And IIP: Some degree of comfort on inflation. FPI Flows: Trends in FPI flows in India. HDFCLIFE: Muted quarter; clear growth roadmap a positive. Consumer Staples: Delayed rural recovery to hurt volume growth

Household Credit: A stimulus to growth?

Monthly Chartbook: Fiscal consolidation to hold key