Consumer Durables share price target

Demand: Est. at 4,448 tons in CY2023 (valued at $306 Bn. at average value of $1,940 per ounce) bifurcated as
primarily (a) Jewellery: 49% (b) Bars & Coins: 27% (c) Central Banks: 23%

Consumption trends in 3QFY25 were mixed, with staple companies expected to report a muted quarter due to sluggish urban demand, weak winter portfolio sales, and the impact of high palm oil prices on the personal-wash segment. YoY volume growth is expected to decline, while pricing pressures ease, leading to positive pricing for most companies.

In Q1FY25, our coverage universe reported a healthy revenue growth of 7.1% YoY, surpassing our estimates by 0.1%. This reflects an uptick in demand and consumption trends.

In Q1FY25E, we expect our coverage universe to see a healthy performance led by some improvement in volumes and stability in gross margins.
We expect revenues to see a growth of 7.0% YoY (+6.7% QoQ) led by improving demand resulting in a gradual uptick in volumes aided by improvement in rural recovery.

In Q4FY24, our coverage universe experienced a modest revenue growth of 1.8% YoY, (Est.4.2%) as demand trends remained relatively stable throughout the period. However, at the end of Q4FY24, most of the companies witnessed rural recovery, which outpaced urban growth.

Top Sector Ideas - FMCG Q4FY24

The FMCG industry has seen slower volume/ value growth in Q3FY24 compared to that seen in H1FY24. The slowdown in growth has been led by traditional trade, while modern trade has continued to see a strong growth trajectory.

Our consumer durables universe grew 25% YoY in Q3, once again led by demand for EMS, cables and wires

We followed up our Southern Sojourn with on-ground channel checks in India's eastern states of Odisha and West Bengal

Consumer: Eastern Encounters Value-driven, price-conscious market