Consumer Durables share price target

Consumption trends in Q1FY26E remained uneven, with rural markets continuing to outperform urban counterparts. Improved monsoon sentiment and widespread distribution of government-sponsored benefits supported rural demand, which remained resilient across staples and personal care categories.

Deo, Instant Noodles, Juices, oral care and mass skin care remains intense. seasonally important quarter partly disrupted by unseasonal rains and operation Sindoor. Food and grocery retail continue to remain highly...

(Cu up 3.5%/3.9% & Al up 2.9%/3.9% in May'25/Jun'25). Cables are expected demand, though realizations were impacted by raw material price fluctuations to outpace wires in Q1FY26 due to stronger demand from industrial and infrastructure segments. We estimate Havells/ Polycab /KEI/RR Kabel to see...

We conducted channel checks of paint dealers across regions. Our interaction suggests that 1) 1Q has seen decent demand with QoQ improvement, however recovery remains slow 2) demand outlook remains positive led by lower inflation, interest rate cuts, tax reductions and normal monsoons. Asian Paints is experiencing a year-on-year decline in the West and South regions, sales in the East remained flat while north India sales trends show mid-high single digit growth. For Kansai Nerolac, the South market is weak, whereas other regions are performing well....

On the positive side, higher gold prices may hinder expansion plans for regional and local players due to elevated inventory costs. Investor interest in franchisee operations may also weaken in the short to medium term. Given all the dynamics, we believe TTAN is well-positioned for decent growth in the near to medium term, supported by a higher number of wedding days and its strategic expansion into Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities. Rising gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainty remain a key risk to our hypothesis. We estimate sales of 17%, EBIDTA growth of 25% and PAT growth of 25.6% for...

Does <26% BAT shareholding indicate strategic shift? BAT (British American Tobacco) has cut its shareholding in ITC from 25.5% to 22.9% last week. BAT was the largest shareholder (Non promoter) in ITC and was known to be keen on control of this crown jewel till the mid-nineties. BAT cut its stake in March 2024 by 3.6% and general perception was that BAT will retain >25% stake to have a say in specific resolutions. BAT has been on record with the intent of selling its stake in recently demerged ITC Hotels (15.4% stake valued at Rs 68bn), however sales of ~2.5% stake in ITC Ltd have come as a surprise, as it has brought its stake to below 26%. We see little impact of this event on the business operations of ITC, which have been working as a professionally run organization for many decades. ITC controls the entire supply chain, technology, brands and distribution unlike many MNC...

Moderate growth in FMEG segment: Appliances witnessed moderate growth, while lighting products remained flat, accompanied by increased demand for fans. Average price increase of 2-5% has been implemented in fans. Small appliances segment did not experience any increase in demand. We expect coverage companies to report 9.2% YoY growth in the FMEG...

Demand: Est. at 4,448 tons in CY2023 (valued at $306 Bn. at average value of $1,940 per ounce) bifurcated as
primarily (a) Jewellery: 49% (b) Bars & Coins: 27% (c) Central Banks: 23%

group company has intensified competition in the paints sector, leading to sectoral deratingcould act as a trigger for a similar derating in the W&C sector. As a result, we have downward revised our target multiple for W&C companies under our coverage, KEI/Polycab reduced from 45x to 40x, with revised TP of Rs 4,280 (Rs 5,041 earlier)/Rs 7,152 (Rs 8,233) and RR Kabel reduced from 31x to 27x, with revised TP of Rs 1,292 (Rs 1,812 earlier). UltraTech's planned capex of Rs 18bn appears significant for the W&C sector, where the combined average capex of the five listed players is estimated to be...

Top Sector Ideas - FMCG Q4FY24

Our consumer durables universe grew 25% YoY in Q3, once again led by demand for EMS, cables and wires