Metal and Mining share price target

Geopolitics is once again taking a center stage for the global aluminum market with closure of Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing middle east crisis. Supplies of LNG are getting disrupted leading to force majeure announcements from various smelters. If the situation persists, it is expected to increase the global aluminum deficit and lead to higher aluminum prices at 1HFY27 as global...

During Feb-26, Indian steel prices increased by 1% MoM to Rs54,000/tonne, remaining at a 52-week-high on seasonal tailwinds. Chinese steel prices declined by 1% MoM to $465/tonne, owing to the increase in production amid weak demand. Coking coal prices decreased by 13% MoM to $186/tonne, as operations normalized following weather disruptions. In Jan-25, Indian steel production increased by 2.0% MoM to 15.1 mn tonnes, while estimated Chinese steel output rose 10% MoM to 75mn tonnes as mills resumed operations after maintenance shutdown. CISA mills also reported a 20% YoY increase in inventory levels, indicating weak demand during festive holidays. Global...

Top Conviction Ideas - Metals and Mining

During Jan-26, Indian steel prices increased by 6% MoM to Rs53,500/tonne, hitting a 52-Week-High post the announcement of safeguard duty. Chinese steel prices increased by 1% MoM to $470/tonne, owing to the production cuts and reduction in inventory levels. Coking coal prices increased by 24% MoM to $214/tonne, driven by supply-side disruption caused by weather conditions. In Dec-25, Indian steel production increased by 8.0% MoM to 14.8 mn tonnes, while estimated Chinese steel output fell by 2% MoM to 68mn tonnes in-line with the anti-involution policy for capacity discipline. Global steel production remained flat MoM at 140 mn tonnes. Furthermore, Chinese steel exports...

Our Top Earnings Plays: APL Apollo Tubes, Hindalco, NALCO, Tata Steel.

During Nov-25, Indian steel prices fell 2% MoM to Rs46,000/tonne, while Chinese steel prices increased by 2% MoM to $470/tonne, as producers hiked export prices owing to lower production. Coking coal prices decreased 3% MoM to $169/tonne, driven by weakness in Chinese production. In Oct-25, Indian steel production remained flat MoM at 13.6 mn tonnes, while estimated Chinese steel output fell by 2% MoM to 72 mn tonnes as mills began maintenance works at BF. Global steel production expanded 2% MoM to 143 mn tonnes. Furthermore, Chinese steel exports...

Top Conviction Ideas - Metals & Mining

During Oct-25, Indian steel prices fell 3% MoM to Rs47,000/tonne, while Chinese steel prices declined by 2% MoM to $460/tonne as rising domestic inventories, indicating supply outpacing demand. Coking coal prices increased 6% MoM to $174/tonne, supported by stronger Chinese buying interest. In Sep-25, Indian steel production declined by 3.5% MoM to 13.6 mn tonnes, while estimated Chinese steel output fell by 5% MoM to 74 mn tonnes, in-line with Chinese anti-involution policy and mill production cut due to negative margins. Global steel production also contracted 2% MoM to 142 mn tonnes. Furthermore, Chinese steel exports increased by 10% MoM and...

Our Top Earnings Play: APL Apollo Tubes, Hindalco, NALCO, and Tata Steel.

During Sep-25, Indian steel prices fell 2% MoM to Rs48,500/tonne, while Chinese steel prices declined by 6% MoM to $470/tonne impacted by seasonal demand weakness and changes in export tax regulations that led to front-loading by exporters. Coking coal prices increased 6% MoM to $164/tonne, driven by supplyside disruptions amid the monsoon. In Aug-25, Indian steel production rose by 0.7% MoM to 14.1 mn tonnes. Estimated Chinese steel output declined by 3% MoM to 77 mn tonnes amid government-mandated environmental sanctions and sluggish domestic demand, while global steel production contracted by 3% MoM to 145 mn tonnes. Chinese steel exports decreased by 3% MoM and were flat YoY to 9.5 mn tonnes, as...

During Aug-25, Indian steel prices remained flat MoM at Rs49,500/tonne, while Chinese steel rose by 2% MoM to $500/tonne due to government-led production cuts and anticipation of further output restrictions. Coking coal prices increased by 5% MoM to $155/tonne, driven by supply-side disruptions amid the monsoon. In Jul-25, Indian steel production rose by 3% MoM to 14 mn tonnes. Estimated Chinese steel output declined by 4% MoM to 80 mn tonnes, while global steel production contracted by 1% MoM to 150 mn tonnes. Chinese steel exports increased by 2% MoM and 26% YoY to 9.8 mn tonnes, driven by weak domestic...

Top Conviction Ideas - Metals & Mining - Hindalco Industries Ltd; National Aluminium Company Ltd; APL Apollo tubes.

During Jul-25, Indian steel prices declined 2% MoM to Rs49,700/tonne, while Chinese steel rose by 10% MoM to $490/tonne. Coking coal prices increased by 9% MoM to $148/tonne, driven by production cuts and a safety crackdown in China. In Jun-25, Indian steel production rose by 1% MoM to 13.7 mn tonnes. Estimated Chinese steel output declined by 4% MoM to 83 mn tonnes, while global steel production contracted by 4% MoM to 151 mn tonnes. Chinese steel exports fell by 8% MoM but rose 11% YoY to 9.6mn tonnes, amid growing speculation of production cuts by Chinese mills. Additionally, USA imposed steep tariffs on imports...

During Jun-25, Indian steel prices declined 1.4% MoM to Rs50,700/tonne, while Chinese steel prices fell by 2.2% MoM to $445/tonne. Coking coal prices dropped by 8.1% MoM to $136/tonne, amid subdued global demand. In May-25, Indian steel production rose by 4.7% MoM to 13.5 mn tonnes. Estimated Chinese steel output increased by 0.7% MoM to 87 mn tonnes, while global steel production expanded by 1.5% MoM to 158 mn tonnes. Chinese steel exports increased by 1.1% MoM and 9.9% YoY to 10.6mn tonnes, as Chinese domestic demand continues to struggle. Additionally, the USA announced a 50% tariff on steel,...

in H1FY26. Although domestic demand remains strong aided by GoI spending, Q1FY26 volume growth seems to have affected by early monsoon, heatwaves expected to benefit from a USD10-15/t decline in coking coal costs, which have fallen to USD184/t levels. As a result, EBITDA/t for our coverage companies is expected to improve on an average ~Rs2,400/t QoQ. However, with weakened steel prices on monsoon led weakness, FY26 EBIDTA growth would depend upon demand recovery in H2FY26. Uncertainties amid ongoing tariff wars and geopolitical tensions have kept...

Top picks: APL Apollo Tubes, Hindalco, NALCO and Tata Steel.

During May-25, Indian steel prices declined 2.1% MoM to Rs51,400/tonne, while Chinese steel prices remained unchanged at $455/tonne. Coking coal prices fell by 2.0% MoM to $148/tonne, amid muted global demand. In Apr-25, Indian steel production declined by 6.5% MoM to 12.9 mn tonnes. Estimated Chinese steel output dropped 7.3% MoM to 86 mn tonnes, while global steel production contracted by 6.3% MoM to 156 mn tonnes. Chinese steel exports remained flat MoM but increased 13.4% YoY to 10.5mn tonnes, as global buyers showed resistance to higher prices offered by Chinese producers. Additionally, the recent...

Top Conviction Ideas - Hindalco, APL Apollo Tubes, NALCO.

As per our import parity prices calculation, FTA countries can supply material if domestic prices improve beyond Rs53,000/t, limiting price rise. The worsening of US-China trade relations has increased the risk of global demand and economic slowdown over the past month. Metal prices, a proxy for global economic activity, have been under pressure over the last few weeks, in addition to commodity-specific demand-supply issues. China being a major consumer of commodities, further weakness in the economy (which has already been soft over the last few years) can add to the ongoing...