V-Guard Industries Ltd. share price target

V-Guard Industries Ltd (VGRD) is one of the leading players in the electrical consumer durables space. Major product segments include Stabilizers, Cables & Wires, UPS, Pumps and Electrical Appliances. In Q4FY25, revenue grew 15% YoY, exceeding estimates, driven by strong growth in Electronics (+26% YoY), Electricals (+15% YoY), and the Consumer division (+12% YoY). However, the Sunflames' business declined by 24% YoY. EBITDA grew by 12% YoY, while EBITDA margins declined by 22bps YoY to 9.3% despite a 120bps YoY improvement in gross margins, largely due to higher...

V-Guard reported a strong set of Q4FY25 result which was partially overshadowed by muted numbers of Sunflame. We believe V-Guard did well led by Stabiliser business benefitting from strong demand for air conditioners.

Strong electronics growth continued for V Guard, supported by an uptick in the electrical portfolio driven by higher copper prices. ECD grew in line with the industry, while Sunflame continued to underperform.

Standalone revenue growth of 9.9% to Rs. 1,185 crore was led by strong performance in electronics (27.9%), while electricals and consumer durables had a moderate growth of 1.2% and 8.1% respectively. Standalone net profit was flat, hit by lower operating margins.

We maintain a Buy on V-Guard Industries with a revised PT of Rs 540, factoring in the growth from the Electronics, Electricals, and Kitchen appliances segments. V-Guard currently trades at 63x/48x/41x its FY2025/2026/2027 EPS, respectively.

Standalone net profit grew by 55% y-o-y, aided by a 23.2% y-o-y revenue growth and a 130 bps y-o-y rise in OPM. Gross margin improved by 220 bps y-o-y

Q4 topline up 18% YoY, fuelled by Consumer Durables segment, as the early onset of summer boosts overall performance

GCPL: Consistent volume growth; cut to HOLD post rally. JSP: Valuations overdone; downgrade to HOLD. ACC: Strong margins; cut to HOLD on full valuations. Bonds Wrap: Fortnightly review. Currency Outlook: Fortnightly forex review. VGRD: In-line quarter. ORIENTEL: Slow quarter; Hyderabad plant to spur growth. SOMC: Lacklustre demand dulls performance. MTLM: Strong performance on fast ramp-up of MDF plant. SRCM: Healthy quarter, expensive valuations

Takeaways from V-Guard’s Q2FY24: (1) gross margin is reverting to pre-covid levels (+449bps YoY in Q2FY24), (2) B2B segments have maintained healthy growth whereas B2C segments (Consumer durables) continued to report dismal performance, and (3) there is improvement in working capital.

V-Guard reported improvement in gross margins (+251bps YoY) due to commodity deflation similar to peers. However, we believe the key drivers for rerating of V-Guard would be (1) expected synergy benefits in distribution and sourcing and likely improvement in market shares for V Guard as well as Sunflame, (2) The consumer durables segment is EVA negative since FY22 due to lower margins.

All-round growth in Q1 led by non-South India markets that grew at 17% YoY

We believe there are three key factors which will likely help to drive rerating of V Guard: (1) successful integration with Sunflame and synergy benefits, (2) improvement in market shares of both these businesses as there will be higher resources available for brand building efforts post integration of Sunflame and (3) improvement in margins of V Guard (mainly Consumer durables segment).