Bajaj Consumer Care Ltd. share price target

Execution is improving as consumption recovers for Bajaj Consumer, with Q3FY26 delivering a positive earnings surprise. This was aided by the GST-led transition, sharper distribution execution and improving channel productivity.

Despite GST-led disruption, Bajaj Consumer delivered one of its best-in-class performances in Q2FY26, driven by disciplined execution in ADHO (double-digit value growth) and strong traction in emerging categories/ brands (coconut hair oil and Banjara’s portfolio).

In our first meeting with Naveen, we didn't discuss his views on hair oil category. In our opinion, Naveen is a result-oriented professional with a track record of building institutional businesses by turning around and accelerating P&L (growth) and launching categories aided by his techno-commercial experience coupled with on-ground execution.

Bajaj Consumer (BaCo) posted a muted Q1FY26 performance, with revenue up 7.4% YoY (+3.7% ex-Banjara’s acquisition) led by 4% value growth in Almond Drops Hair Oil (ADHO) and flat volumes.

Bajaj Consumer (BaCo) reported a stable quarter with 4.2% YoY revenue growth (~2% volume growth), aided by marginal sequential recovery in core Almond Drops Hair Oil (ADHO), strong momentum in the non-ADHO portfolio (especially in Coconut oil) and sustained double-digit growth in international business.

Bajaj Consumer (BaCo) had another disappointing print with a 3% YoY revenue decline (~2% YoY volume decline) due to continued stress in wholesale channel for core ADHO (~80% revenue salience), while diversification journey continues, though at a moderated pace.

Bajaj Consumer Care Ltd’s (BCC’s) Q4FY2024 performance was weak, with revenues declining by 4%, OPM lower by 225 bps y-o-y to 14.5% (versus expectations of 16.6%) and PAT falling by 12% y-o-y to Rs. 36 crore.

Bajaj Consumer (BaCo) continues to improve its growth trajectory with gradual recovery in in hair oil market (largely driven by urban markets). ADHO revenue growth of 9% YoY with broad based growth across SKUs is encouraging (with continued media investments).

Revenue growth continues to be subdued impacted by slowdown in the overall hair oil category. Gradual recovery in rural (in hair oil market) is positive while 4%
growth in urban market is on a low base (-5% YoY in 4QFY22). Similar value and volume growth despite inflation implies mass market products have outperformed premium products.

The company's topline rose 8.5% in Q1FY20, driven by a 4.6% volume growth. The volume performance was impacted due to stress in the CSD channel. Excluding CSD volume, the domestic business's volume rose 3.5%. The strong volume growth in modern trade (+13%) and multifold growth in IB sales helped it mitigate the negative impact of CSD decline. The company was able to expand GM by taking price hikes in the quarter. However, operating margin shrunk, due to a rise in A&P; spends. The ADHO brand...

Established to sell hair oils and other beauty products, Bajaj Consumer Care Ltd. is one of the leading players in the hair oil category with brands like Bajaj Almond Drops Hair oil. With the acquisition of Nomarks, they have also...