Thermax Ltd. share price target

Consolidated revenue was at | 1141.2 crore, down 28.9% YoY (below our estimate of | 1191.9 crore) on slower execution. Energy segment revenue (contributing ~77.5% to revenue) fell 33.9% to | 885.8 crore YoY while environment segment revenue fell 13.5% to | 155.9 crore, chemical segment revenue was at | 114.5 crore, marginally up 3.6% YoY. However, EBITDA margin was better-than-expected at 7.0% (vs. our estimate of 3.6%) posting a decline of mere 120 bps YoY. Reported PAT came in at | 31.2 crore, up 21.5% due to tax adjustments in base quarter and impacted by...

Q1FY21 revenue declined by 52% YoY owing to slower execution due to Covid led lock down. Reported EBITDA loss of Rs11cr due to non-absorption of fixed overhead expenses along with lower volume of turnover. Order inflow declined by 52% YoY due to subdued inflows in...

Consolidated revenue came in at | 665 crore, down 52.2% YoY (vs. our estimate of | 716.4 crore) on the back of slower execution owing to covid19 lockdowns. Energy segment revenue (that contributes ~75% to revenue) fell 57% to | 500.4 crore YoY while environment segment revenue fell 43% to | 83.9 crore and chemical segment revenue was at | 84.3 crore, down 13.8%, YoY. It posted a loss of | 11.4 crore at the EBITDA level (vs. EBITDA of | 99.1 crore in Q1FY20), owing to higher employee expenses, other operating expenses and less booking of revenue. Consolidated loss after tax came in at | 15.3 crore (vs. PAT of | 62.8 crore in Q1FY20), partially impacted...

Order inflows are expected to remain challenged in medium term as industrial/private capex would be on hold mode. Though the real magnitude of outbreak and economy lockdown is difficult to assess, we believe near to medium term business outlook will remain challenging. Thermax's strong balance sheet and strict working capital management style would help survive current economic environment. The stock is currently trading at...

Weak order inflows may impact near term execution... Thermax Ltd (TMX) is a leading energy and environment solutions provider. They offer integrated innovative solutions in the areas of...

an opportunity of increasing its international deal win share especiallyinmarketslikeEurope,LATAM&Africa. We derive comfort from TMX's proven ability to emerge strongeraftereverydownturnduetostrongcashflowcontrol...

Consolidated revenue came in at | 1323 crore, down 36.2% YoY (vs. our estimate of | 1300 crore) on the back of slower execution owing to Covid-19 lockdowns. Energy segment revenue declined 38.2% to | 1051 crore YoY while environment segment revenue declined 25.6% to | 199.1 crore and chemical segment revenue came in at | 96.3 crore, down 6.1% YoY. Consolidated EBITDA came in at | 63.6 crore, down 62.8% YoY, owing to higher employee expenses and other operating expenses. Consequently, EBITDA margin declined 340 bps to 4.8% YoY. Consolidated PAT came in at...

Thermax's consolidated net revenue reported a sharp decline of 36.2% y-o-y in revenue for Q4FY2020 (lower than our estimates) at Rs. 1,323 crore due to impact of lockdown (loss of revenue of Rs. 400 crore-500 crore), wherein the decline in revenue was seen across segments. Operating profit margin (OPM) declined by 343 bps y-o-y, led by lower absorption of fixed costs on lower revenue. Hence, operating profit fell sharply by 63% y-o-y to Rs. 64 crore. Further, lower other income (-41% y-o-y to Rs. 30.7 crore) and higher depreciation (+25% y-o-y to Rs. 30.8 crore) impacted PBT (-70% y-o-y) and adjusted PAT declined by 70% y-o-y...

We cut our FY21/FY22E EPS estimates by 28%/12% due to lower order 4QFY20 revenues declined 36% to INR13.2b and were 23% below our expectation. of overall revenue) declined 6% YoY to INR1.0b. Order inflow declined 18% YoY to INR9.5b for the quarter. Order book stood TMX is witnessing inquiries and order conversions in end markets like pharma, chemicals, refineries, food and food processing. PAT CAGR of 6%/15%/35% over FY20-22E, factoring in lower losses from Danstoker as well as the low base of FY20 as TMX saw disproportionate impact of COVID- Order inflow during the quarter was lower at INR9.5b (-18% YoY). Book to bill stood lower at Energy INR35.6b, Environment INR16b, There have been no order cancellations as yet. Order book in FY21 will be lower YoY as orders from Steel, Cement and Fertilizer sectors is expected to remain muted.

Companies like Larsen & Toubro and KEC with exposure to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are expected to get impacted by the recent more than 60% fall in crude oil prices to US$22/barrel. This is expected to impact overall orders/awarding from the MENA region. Companies like Elgi Equipments, AIA Engineering, Thermax, Engineers India and Kalpataru Power with exposure to international geographies like Europe, Middle East, China for sales or essential raw material may get impacted. However, lockdowns in India, UK, Europe and other geographies due to Covid-19 are...