Thangamayil Jewellery Ltd. share price forecast

We reiterate a BUY rating with DCF based TP of Rs 590/sh (implied P/E - 17x Dec-20E EPS). Thangamayils (TJL) net revenue grew by 8.3% missing estimates (est. growth: 18.4%) as gold volume declined (-1.5% YoY) despite shift of festive season to 3Q (missing in 3QFY18). The quarter witnessed a double-whammy of high gold prices (+8% YoY) and natural calamity (Cyclone Gaja) in Tamil Nadu region which dented gold demand.

We reiterate a BUY rating with DCF based TP of Rs 625/sh (implied P/E - 18x Sept-20E EPS). Thangamayils (TJL) net revenue grew by 32.5% in-line with our estimate; albeit on a favourable base (13% de-growth in base quarter due to pre-GST preponement of sales in 1QFY18). The bump up in sales is largely SSSG-led (store renovations-led) as gold/silver volume increased by 33/21% despite shift of festive season to 3Q. In spite of the strong top-line growth, gross margin cracked 37bps to 8.5% (est.: 9.9%) led by change in product mix and higher discounted sales. EBITDA margins expanded 10bps to 4.5% as op lev gains kicked in.

We revise our DCF-based TP to Rs 625/sh (earlier Rs 650/sh; implied P/E - 23xFY20E EPS) on moderating expectations of growth. Reiterate BUY. Thangamayils (TJL) net revenue declined by 10.8% missing estimates (est. growth: 4.4%) as volume across products declined; albeit on a high base. (Note: base quarter comprises of a Pre-GST bump up in throughput). Gold jewellery/Silver product volumes declined 9/2% YoY respectively. Despite the top-line disappointment, TJL managed to more than salvage margins led by better product mix. Gross/EBITDA margins expanded 110bp each to 9.7/5.7%.