Tata Motors Ltd. share price target

Tata Motors (TML) reported a disappointing Q3FY19 performance At JLR, sensing the current muted demand prospects and profitability challenges, the company undertook a one-time impairment charge to the tune of | 27,838 crore On a standalone basis, net revenues came in at | 16,208 crore (up 0.7% YoY), with volumes at 171,354 units, down 0.5% YoY. EBITDA was at | 1,430 crore with corresponding EBITDA margins at 8.8%. Consequent PAT was at | 618 crore...

reduced to 3-6% (earlier 4-7%). Standalone performance for the company remains on track. We currently factor in ~5.5% volume growth for JLR over FY19-20 and maintain BUY with the target price of Rs207, where we value...

7 February 2019 Net sales declined 1% YoY to GBP6.2b (in-line), as volumes (incl. EBITDA margin shrank 180bp QoQ (-350bp YoY) to 7.3% (our account of de-stocking and warranty cost. JLR impaired assets in use by GBP3.1b. net loss was at GBP258m (v/s our estimate of PAT of GBP35m and PAT of GBP88m in 3QFY18). Revenue grew 1.5% YoY to INR162b (in- line), led by realization growth of 1.5% YoY. EBITDA margin expanded 70bp over fixed costs.

JLR's wholesale volumes declined 17% YoY (-8% MoM) to 45.5k units (our estimate: 50k), including China JV volumes of 5k units (-51% YoY), in Dec'18. Jaguar volumes were down 16% YoY to 14.1k units (our estimate: 15k), while Land Rover volumes declined 17.9% YoY to 31.4k units (our estimate: 35k).

JLR's wholesale volumes declined 9% YoY (+5% MoM) to 49.3k units (est. 50k units) including the China JV volume at 4.1k units (-49% YoY) in Nov'18. Jaguar volumes increased 23% YoY to 15.1k units (est. 14k units) while Land Rover volumes declined 18.5% YoY to 34.2k units (est. 36k units).

JLR's wholesale volumes declined 6% YoY (-11.7% MoM) to 46.8k units (our estimate: 45.5k) in Oct'18- this includes China JV volumes of 2.4k units. Jaguar volumes increased 0.6% YoY to 13.4k units (our estimate: 14.5k), while Land Rover volumes declined 8.4% YoY to 33.4k units (our estimate:31k). JLR's retail volumes declined 4.6% YoY in Oct'18, impacted by a decline of 49% in China retails and 13.5% YoY in Europe retails. UK and US volumes grew 46.9% and 24.1% YoY, respectively

Tata Motors (TML) reported healthy performance in Q2FY19. The key surprise came on the JLR front with company reporting EBITDA margins of 9.1%. On the consolidated basis, TML clocked EBITDA margins of 10.9%, up 130 bps QoQ. TML reported loss of | 1,010 crore at the consolidated level; with one-off's at ~| 500 crore. On the standalone basis, Net sales in Q2FY19 came at | 17,759 crore (up 32.5% YoY. Sales volume stood at 190,615 units, up 24% YoY. EBITDA in Q2FY19 stood at | 1,501 crore with corresponding EBITDA...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Tata Motors' owned Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) came out with volume numbers for September 2018. Total JLR retail sales were at 57,114 units, down 12.3% YoY. For the quarter i.e. Q2FY19, total JLR retail sales were at 1.3 lakh units, down 13.2% YoY. On a YTDCY18 basis, retail sales were down 4% YoY to 448,106 units. Furthermore, media reports suggest that JLR is taking a two-week shutdown at its Solihull (UK) plant to align itself with the global supply & demand scenario. Solihull is one of the major...

9 October 2018 Automobiles JLRs wholesale volumes declined 8% YoY (+24% MoM) to 53k units (est. of 45k units; includes China JV volumes of 4.8k units) in Sep-18. Jaguar volumes increased 9% YoY to 19k units (est. of 15k), while Land Rover volumes declined 15% YoY to 34k units (est. JLRs retail volumes fell 12% YoY (down ~4% in 1HFY19) in the month due to a decline of 46% in China retails and ~7% in US retails. UK (-1%) and EU (-5%) witnessed substantial volumes pressure after the implementation of WLTP norms from Sep-18. Jaguar retail volumes grew 4% YoY, driven by new models like XE & I-Pace; volumes of other models declined substantially. LR volumes declined ~19% YoY, as strong growth in Velar (+26%) was more than diluted by a decline across other models. According to JLR, industry retails declined ~20.5% in the UK and ~31% in Germany. Industry retails in the US declined ~5.5%.

10 September 2018 Automobiles JLRs wholesale volumes declined 4% YoY (+21.9% MoM) to 42.7k units (estimated 29.5k units), including China JV volumes at 4.1k units in Aug-2018. Jaguar volumes increased 29.4% YoY (+14.3% MoM) at 14.2k units (estimated 9.5k units), while Land Rover volumes declined 14.9% YoY (+26% MoM) to 28.5k units (estimated 20k units). JLRs retail volumes declined by 4.9% YoY (+1.3% MoM) to 36.