Tata Communications Ltd. share price target

Tata Communications’ (TCom) Q2FY26 EBITDA performance was modest, and partly restricted from one-time adjustment in TCR. Orderbook (OB) continues to be healthy with strong sales funnel.

Tata Communications (TCOM) delivered steady 2Q, with ~7% YoY (~1% QoQ) growth in data revenue and 145bp data EBITDA margin expansion.

We hosted Tata Communications (TCom)’s management – Mr. Kabir Ahmed Shakir, CFO – for an NDR in the UK. Summarily, we learn, TCom remains excited about its digital business as key parameters are advancing encouragingly, and order book (OB) growth remains healthy.

*over or under performance to benchmark index Tata Communications operates in 190+ countries, serving 7,000+ clients, including 300+ Fortune 500 companies. It is a major global network services provider, offering software-defined networking solutions. In Q1FY26, Tata Communications' revenue grew 6.6% YoY to Rs. 5,960cr, led by...

Tata Communications’ (TCOM) 1Q results were subdued, with ~1% QoQ growth in data revenue and consolidated EBITDA.

TCOM has deferred its ambition of doubling data revenue to INR280b by one year to FY28, which implies a 3-yr CAGR of ~13% (vs. ~19% CAGR target over FY23-27 earlier).

Tata Communications (TCOM)’s 4Q results were once again a mixed bag, as ~17% YoY revenue growth in the Digital portfolio was offset by a sharp ~125bp QoQ contraction in consolidated EBITDA margin.

We upgrade Tata Communications’ (TCom) two notches to BUY (from Hold). TCom’s stock price has plunged notably beset by near-term revenue weakness – making the company’s revenue guidance seem rather ambitious. In our view, this presents strong upside potential and compelling risk-reward.

Tata Communications (TCOM)’s 3Q results were a mixed bag as ~10% YoY revenue growth in the Digital portfolio was offset by continued weakness in core connectivity (-1% QoQ).

Tata Communications (TCOM) reported weak results with consolidated EBITDA declining 1% QoQ (5% miss) and margins contracting 60bp QoQ to19.4%.

Tata Communications’ (TCom) H1FY25 revenue print was muted due to subdued orderbook in FY24, and longer deal conversion cycle.

Tata Communications’ (TCom) Q1FY25 revenue print was muted with just 0.8% QoQ growth in the data business; however, TCom has shown a sharp improvement in its consol.

Management reiterated its ambition to double data revenue by FY27 to
INR280b (at 18% revenue CAGR), driven by the DPS segment that is likely to
contribute more than 60% of data revenue.

Tata Communications’ (TCom) Q2FY24 data business revenue grew slower at 10% YoY / 0.7% QoQ due to a drag from G-SIP and fewer events in media. Data business net revenue grew even slower at 8.1% due to higher direct cost, which along with rise in other expenses hurt the underlying EBITDA margin.

Tata Communications’ (TCom) Q1FY24 data and digital services revenue (organic) grew 14.2% and 28% YoY, respectively, which is significant acceleration vs consensus estimates. It believes the growth is likely to sustain, and remains committed to achieving INR 280bn revenue by FY27E in data services.