Simplex Infrastructures Ltd. share price target

Execution continues to remain muted due to elevated debtors SIL has secured | 1,122 crore worth of orders in Q1FY20 and has an order book worth | 15,347 crore as of Q1FY20. The present OB implies 2.7x order book-to-bill ratio on FY19 revenues. Despite this, execution remains slow on account of SIL facing issues related to the old debtor's recovery. As per the management, there was a shortfall in revenues by ~| 2,000 crore in FY19. Pending debtors and client-related issues contributed ~60% to this shortfall. The company has been focusing on improving internal operations and...

Orderbook at | 16,805 crore, 2.7x TTM revenues in Q3FY19 With total order inflows worth | 2,431 crore in 9MFY19, SIL's orderbook stands at | 16,805 crore as of Q3FY19. Of this, 80% of the orderbook comprises of government orders, while remaining 20% pertains to order from private entities. The current orderbook does not include | 1,100 crore worth order wherein the company has emerged as L-1 bidder. The management is hopeful of receipt of | 2,500 crore worth orders in Q4FY19E and hence has guided for a total order inflow of | 5,000 crore in...

Simplex Infrastructure's (SINF) sales grew marginally by 3.2% yoy to about Rs14bn in Q3FY19, lower than our estimates mainly due to social unrest in the North East and a delay in getting approvals for few projects. PAT totaled Rs363mn, on account of better operating performance, lower depreciation costs (down 10% yoy) and lower interest costs (down 1.1%yoy).It was marginally lower than our estimate . SINF's order book stood at about Rs168bn (2.8x TTM revenues). Management is eyeing...

Simplex Infrastructure results for Q2FY19 were lower than our expectations on revenues and profit front. Margins stood in line with estimates. Order inflow was weak during the quarter but is likely to improve going forward. Execution is also likely to ramp up in H2FY19. Revenue growth of 27% YoY was lower than our estimates but is likely to improve in coming quarters. Margins witnessed a decline on YoY basis but improved...

SIL received order inflows worth | 430 crore, taking its order book to | 16821 crore in Q2FY19. In the current orderbook, urban infra comprises 25%, buildings 24%, power 22%, roads 16% with remaining in marine, piling & bridges, industrial and railways. Despite order inflows being subdued in H1FY19 (| 1170 crore), the management is confident of achieving order inflows worth | 7000-8000 crore in FY19E, with the...

SINF's sales grew 18.7% yoy to Rs14.8bn in 2QFY19, ahead of our estimate on a pick-up in execution in its healthy order book of Rs168bn. SINF's PAT came in at Rs244mn, led by strong execution and lower depreciation expenses....

Simplex Infrastructure's (SIL) topline grew 4.8% YoY to | 1584.2 crore (our estimate: | 1668.6 crore) possibly on account of muted execution following stretched working capital in Q1FY19 EBITDA margins slipped slightly by 26 bps YoY to 11.2% but was broadly in line with our expectation of 11.0% PAT de-grew 1.6% YoY to | 28.3 crore (our estimate: | 32.9 crore) due to higher tax rate (30.1% in Q1FY19 vs. 21.1% in Q1FY18) Auditor raises attention on unbilled revenues worth | 447.5 crore...

SIL's auditors have raised attention on unbilled revenues relating to worth | 860.4 crore pertaining to earlier years. In respect of this, SIL is in regular discussion with concerned customers for completion of necessary certification and recovery. The availability of appropriate audit evidence on these balances has been limited due to geographical spread of operations of SIL and project-specific data being maintained at respective project site. Hence, auditor could not verify these unbilled revenues. However, the management believes this would be resolved over the next...

Simplex Infrastructure's (SINF) sales increased marginally by 6.3% yoy to Rs16.4bn, below our estimate owing to slower execution in some key projects. SINF's PAT came in at Rs293.6mn, down 56% yoy due to lower execution, higher interest cost (up 11% yoy) and enhanced tax outflow (26.6% tax rate in Q4FY18 v/s 35.8% in Q4FY17). SINF has secured orders worth Rs76.6bn in FY18, thus taking the total order book to...

The EBITDA margin expanded robustly 160 bps YoY to 13.1% and was above our estimate of 12.5% PAT grew robustly by 68.9% YoY to | 31.1 crore (our estimate: | 36.3 crore) led by strong EBITDA margin expansion and lower effective tax rate (22.5% in Q3FY18 vs. 34.9% in Q3FY17) Orderbook at | 17653 crore, 3.1x of TTM revenues SIL has received strong order inflows worth ~| 1734 crore in Q3FY18, taking its order book to ~| 17653 crore, 3.1x order book to bill ratio on a...

Management confident of recovering monies from old debtors Simplex Infrastructure (SIL) had passed an enabling resolution in Q1FY18 to raise up to | 1000 crore, which would help it in debt reduction and consequent working capital improvement. However, the management has changed its stance. Now, it is looking to reduce debt via receipt of old debtors. It aims to recover ~| 450-500 crore in FY18E and | 800 crore in FY19E from old debtors. SIL's debt has increased significantly by | 248 crore to | 3611 crore as on Q2FY18. Furthermore, SIL expects to receive...

Simplex Infrastructure reported Q2FY18 results, which were below our estimates on the topline front. However, it was above our estimate on the bottomline front due to strong EBITDA margin expansion and lower effective tax rate Simplex Infrastructure's (SIL) topline de-grew 0.9% YoY to | 1246.0 crore and was below our estimate of | 1319.2 crore possibly on account of muted execution during the quarter EBITDA margin expanded robustly by 90 bps YoY to 13.6% (our...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research SIL has received order inflows worth ~| 1406 crore in Q1FY18, taking its order book to ~| 16419 crore, 2.9x order book to bill ratio on a TTM basis. It is L-1 bidder for orders worth | 1029 crore. Newly won orders include NTPC order worth | 221 crore, bridges order in Bangalore worth | 203 crore, power transmission order in Andhra Pradesh worth | 188 crore. The management sees metro as a big opportunity and anticipates orders worth ~| 3000 crore in the next three years. Overall, the...

SIL posted 7.4% YoY rise in Q1FY18 standalone revenue (increased post 6 consecutive quarters of de-growth) to `15.1bn (in line with estimates) primarily due to better execution in Power and Urban segments. EBITDA margin down 25bps YoY to 11.4% (in line with estimates), due to rise in construction cost which was partly offset by reduction in employee cost. PAT grew 67.0% YoY to `287mn (62.5% above estimates) due to lower tax rate of 21.1% in Q1FY18 vs. 37.7% in Q4FY17. We maintain Sell on the stock...

Simplex Infrastructure's (SIL) topline de-grew 0.5% YoY to | 1550.1 crore and was below our estimate of | 1666.5 crore possibly on account of stretched working capital causing muted execution EBITDA margin expanded 79 bps YoY to 13.2% (our estimate: 11.0%) despite muted execution on account of lower raw material expenses (30.5% as percentage of sales in Q4FY17 vs. 34.5% in Q4FY16) PAT zoomed 2.5x YoY to | 66.8 crore (our estimate: | 28.2 crore) despite lower other income and topline de-growth, mainly on account...

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Simplex Infrastructure (SIL) reported Q3FY17 results, which were marginally below our estimates on the topline and bottomline front while in line on the EBITDA margin front Topline de-grew 1.8% YoY to | 1377.7 crore (our estimate: | 1468.2 crore) due to stretched working capital causing muted execution The EBITDA margin expanded 70 bps YoY to 11.6% and was in line with our expectation: 11.7%) despite muted execution, mainly on...

Simplex Q2FY17 operational performance was better than expectations. Though, revenues of Rs 12.63bn (down by 11% YoY) was lower than estimate of Rs 13.68bn, EBITDA of Rs 1.59bn (-4% YoY) was in-line with our estimate of Rs 1.57bn as the margin came higher at 12.7% (+101 bps YoY) vs. estimate of 11.5%. PAT declined 31% YoY to Rs 178mn primarily led by decline in EBITDA and higher tax rate. Going ahead, we expect muted revenue growth during FY17-18E due to cash crunch in the system and working capital stress. However, decline in interest cost (led by reduction in debt) to drive 42% PAT CAGR during FY16-18E. However, valuations look fair. Maintain Hold.

Simplex Infrastructure’s (SIL) topline de-grew 6.9% YoY to | 1407.4 crore and was below our estimate of | 1536.6 crore on account of muted execution and a stretched working capital .The EBITDA margin expanded 45 bps YoY to 11.7% and was above our estimate of 11.2% . PAT de-grew 32.1% YoY to | 17.2 crore and was in line with our estimate of | 17.2 crore mainly on account of a higher effective tax rate (37.7% in Q1FY17 vs. our expectation of 33.9%), lower other income (| 20.1 crore in Q1FY17 vs. | 28.7 crore in Q1FY16) and a muted topline performance.

Valuation: We like Simplex on the back of its focused approach towards EPC business model, robust order book, better quality management & strong execution capabilities. With the government’s focus on reviving infrastructure coupled with the recent Cabinet move to boost construction sector liquidity, we believe SIL would be a key beneficiary. Hence, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of | 440/share. We have valued its EPC business at | 413/share (at 6.5x FY18E EV/EBITDA).

Simplex Q1FY17 operational performance was better than expectations. Though, revenues of Rs 14.07bn (down by 7% YoY) was lower than estimate of Rs 15.2bn, EBITDA of Rs 1.64bn (-3% YoY) was better than estimate of Rs 1.56bn as the margin came higher at 11.7% (+45 bps YoY) vs. estimate of 10.3%. PAT declined 32% YoY to Rs 172mn primarily led by decline in EBITDA and other income. Going ahead, we expect muted revenue growth during FY17-18E due to working capital stress. However, decline in interest cost (led by reduction in debt) to drive 55% PAT CAGR during FY16-18E. Valuation looks fair post recent stock run up. Maintain Hold.

Simplex Q4FY16 operational performance was below our expectations. Revenues of Rs 15.1bn (down by 2% YoY) was lower than our estimate of Rs 15.8bn. EBITDA came at Rs 1.33bn (-3% YoY), ~22% below our estimate of Rs 1.69bn as the margin came lower at 8.8% (-14 bps YoY) vs. estimate of 10.7%. PAT declined 29% YoY to Rs 158mn (vs. estimate of Rs 279mn) primarily led by weak operational performance. For FY16, revenue growth was muted at 4% YoY with EBITDA remained flat YoY due to working capital constraints. FY16 PAT increased 6% YoY led by higher other income & lower tax rate. Karvy downgrade the stock to Hold (from Buy earlier) as the valuation looks fair post the earnings downgrade and the recent run-up in stock (40% in last 3 months) with target price of Rs 295 includes Rs 10/share for BoT projects.

Trendlyne has 9 reports on SIMPLEXINF updated in the last year from 3 brokers with an average target of Rs 310. Brokers have a rating for SIMPLEXINF with 3 price downgrades in past 6 months and 1 upgrades,1 price upgrades,4 price downgrades in past 1 Year.