Our in-house Economic Activity Index (EAI) for India's GVA (called EAI-GVA) posted growth of 2.2% YoY for the first time in seven months in Sep'20, following decline of 2.2% YoY in Aug'20. This implies EAI-GVA shrank just 1.7% YoY in 2QFY21 v/s -18% YoY in 1QFY21. Industrial activity contracted marginally (by 0.7% YoY), while the Services sector grew 3.1% YoY (for the first time in six months) in Sep'20. Growth in farm activity eased to 5.4% YoY in Sep'20, from the double digits in the previous three months, due to decline in fertilizer production. The EAI-GDP index (our in-house measure for official GDP), however, contracted 2.8% YoY in Sep'20, implying decline of 5% YoY in 2QFY21, following a 7.2% decrease a month ago. Notably, fiscal spending declined 37% YoY in Sep'20 (the worst decline in 18 months), dragging down economic growth significantly during the month. Excluding fiscal spending,...