Our interaction with AL's MHCV dealer in Gujarat indicates a fragile demand environment with over 20% drop in volumes in Apr-May'19. The volume decline should persist in Q2 due to a high base, surplus capacity with transporters, and lower transporter profitability. Volume growth is expected to gradually recover in H2FY20, driven by pre-buying before the BS6 transition. BS6 cost increases are expected to be in the range of Rs80,000150,000. After the transition, volumes are likely to decline steeply in H1FY21. to the implementation of the new axle-load norms and lower freight availability. In addition, blended discounts remain elevated at Rs450,000/unit. We expect earnings to slump at a 23% CAGR over FY19-21E. Maintain high-conviction...