Upstream players: The supply cut by OPEC and non-OPEC countries (excluding US), will provide strength to crude prices. However, strong shale oil supplies from US will provide a cap on crude prices. We thus expect oil price to remain range bound. In Q4, ONGC's and OIL's earnings are driven by higher crude oil realisation (we have not factored in subsidy sharing) and dividend income. Downstream: OMCs did not pass on the full impact of rising oil prices in 3QFY18 to auto fuel consumers (likely on account of state elections), compressing marketing margins. But they have hiked prices in 4Q to restore marketing margins. Blended marketing margins were up 6.3-6.5% QoQ to Rs 3/litre. Strong marketing margins and inventory gains are likely to offset for lower refining margins during the quarter.