NALC is undertaking various projects to expand capacity by 500kt at smelter, 1mtpa at alumina refinery, etc. We understand that actual spend on alumina project has started, while other projects are still on drawing board. Therefore, we are increasing capex from INR6b in FY18 to INR11b in FY19E. NALC is a play on LME and alumina price. We are factoring in LME of USD2,000/t and alumina prices of USD350/t. The stock trades at 7.2x FY19E EV/EBITDA. We value the stock at INR79/share based on FY20E SOTP. Every USD100 change in LME increases the target price by INR16/share. Maintain Neutral.