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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    24 Sep 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Neogen Chemicals: Brokerages are positive about this specialty chemicals maker despite being in a market with many listed competitors. Three brokerages — ICICI Direct, HDFC Securities, and Edelweiss, gave the company a ‘Buy’ rating in recent reports. ICICI Direct expects the company’s capital expenditure to enhance capacity at its Dahej plant to generate revenue of Rs 350 crore by FY24. Even after the 33% price rise since the month began, the stock is trading 5.5% below the average broker target price.

    2. Sundram Fasteners: The management of this auto-components maker expects the automobile market to recover strongly in Q3FY22. Arathi Krishna, the Managing Director of the company said that demand from automobile original equipment manufacturers is 80-85% of pre-Covid levels in Q2FY22. Even with the second wave disrupting economic activity in Q1FY22, the company’s revenues jumped nearly 3X YoY and declined by just 11% sequentially. The reason for this, according to brokerages, is its low sales to commercial vehicle makers (especially heavy commercial vehicles) which are 18% off pre-second wave levels.

    3. Godrej Properties: Expecting a swift and steady revival in realty stocks, the Nifty Realty index gained nearly 30% in one month. This stock is leading the rally with a 42% gain in that time reaching a lifetime high. The developer registered sales of Rs 1,140 crore in the past six months from just one residential project in Noida. Over 50% of these sales came in one day. For the rest of FY22, the developer has a healthy pipeline of properties measuring 1.2 crore square ft. The market expects housing demand to remain robust in Q3FY22 especially with the festive season approaching.

    4. Alkyl Amines Chemicals: This specialty chemicals’ Managing Director Yogesh Kothari is routinely selling shares as its stock price corrects. In September alone, he sold 7.5 lakh shares representing 1.4% of the company for Rs 30.7 crore across 14 insider trades. In Q2FY22 so far, he sold nearly 9 lakh shares for Rs 36.3 crore. Since reaching a lifetime high of Rs 4,622 per share in early July, the stock is down by 14%.

    5. Vaibhav Global: This online retailer of fashion accessories and jewelry’s promoter is buying shares as the stock price declines. In September, its promoter (Brett Enterprises) holding a 55% stake, purchased over 3 lakh shares (0.18%) worth Rs 26.4 crore in seven insider trades. In FY22, the promoter has bought back over 12 lakh shares for Rs 56.7 crore in 17 insider trades. In that time, the stock price is down by 27%.

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks at their ten …
    24 Sep 2021

    Stocks at their ten year highs

    Stocks close to or at their ten year highs
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    The Baseline
    23 Sep 2021
    Chart of the week: Companies are filling in business gaps with acquisitions

    Chart of the week: Companies are filling in business gaps with acquisitions

    September so far, has been a month of acquisitions. Firms across sectors are buying up businesses to boost their offerings. 

    It started with HDFC Life Insurance Company's Rs 6,687 crore acquisition of Exide Life Insurance Company (on September 3).  Last week, two and three-wheeler maker TVS Motor Company acquired an 80% stake in Switzerland-based electric bike company EGO Movement to enter the European e-bike market. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala backed Nazara Technologies announced its third acquisition since its listing in March 2021 - the gaming company's esports business Nodwin Gaming acquired OML Entertainment's live events, gaming, and intellectual property verticals for Rs 73 crore on September 18. 

    This week, KEC International, KPIT Technologies, and Mphasis also announced acquisitions.

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    The Baseline
    20 Sep 2021
    Five stocks in the PE buy zone

    Five stocks in the PE buy zone

    Despite the runup in the market, some companies are still in the PE buy zone - trading below their average historical PEs. We took a look at five stocks that are in this PE buy range, and also have a high Durability Score. You can see the Buy Zone screener tracking historical PE for the full list.  

    1. Security and Intelligence Services (SIS): This security services company has traded below its current PE only 9% of its total trading days. The company has gained 29% over the last year, not a significant runup. It has a durability score of 80, with positive net profit and revenue growth YoY in its most recent quarter. 

    2. Sharda Cropchem: This agrochem business has got some investor attention in recent weeks, with the Momentum Score moving into the green. However the stock has traded below its current PE only 14% of its trading days. This is a low volatility stock that tends to maintain its gains for periods of time when it moves up, since rural demand patterns tend to be less volatile than other sectors.

    3. Coal India: This coal and energy company has seen a recent upswing in its share price, with its Momentum Score back in the green and rising 11% over the past month. At its current PE, it has traded below this level for 25% of its trading days. The company delivered a strong performance in August, with resilient volumes despite a weak month, reduction in dues from state power generators and good E-auction revenues according to analysts. 

    4. Castrol India: This oil lubricant stock is another potentially underpriced company in PE compared to historical levels. Even as its share price has picked up in recent weeks, it trades below current PE levels for just 15% of its trading days. While it may look like a good pickup at its current levels, risks remain - the drag in the auto sector due to supply constraints however, remains a key negative for companies like Castrol. 

    5. Edelweiss Financial Services:  Financial services have been on the upswing during the lockdown, although Edelweiss' stock was an underperformer, especially relative to the Nifty index. The company jumped back into the green in net profit numbers only in the last two quarters. It has traded below its current PE for just 20% of total trading days. 

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    The Baseline created a screener Stocks At Their All …
    17 Sep 2021

    Stocks At Their All Time Highs

    Stocks where the day high is the all time high
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    The Baseline
    17 Sep 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Mindtree: This IT services company’s stock is the most overbought stock among Nifty 500 companies based on technical indicators like RSI and MFI. Over the past 18 months, this stock rose 5.7 times from the lows of March 2020 and is touching new 52-week highs regularly (including on Thursday). Investors only need to look at the company’s average broker one-year target price of Rs 2,440 to get a sense of how much the stock has run up over the past many months.

    2. Cipla: This pharmaceutical company’s promoter group-controlled entities sold a stake (0.73% stake) in the company in the open market for the first time in two years. This comes a couple of months after the stock touched a 52-week high of Rs 997, which is also incidentally its lifetime high. Like other pharmaceutical companies, Cipla also gained from the pandemic and reported revenues above Rs 5,000 crore in three out of the past four quarters. The only time quarterly revenues dipped below Rs 5,000 crore in the past four quarters was in Q4FY21, as a result of which its net profit dipped below Rs 500 crore. Analysts are upbeat about the company’s prospects as can be seen in the average target price of Rs 1,063.5.

    3. Home First Finance: Home First Finance, a technology-based financing company for affordable housing, listed in stock markets earlier this year, and has continued to trade above its issue price post IPO. The company recently received a buy call from Edelweiss with a price target of Rs. 763, an upside of 35%. It delivered a robust 49% AUM CAGR over FY17-FY21 despite FY21 being impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic. 

    4. Vodafone Idea: This beleaguered telecom company’s stock is one of the best performing stocks over the past week among Nifty 500 companies, rising 34%, with 25% gains coming on Thursday. These gains come after the Union Cabinet approved a rescue plan for the telecom sector which would ease its cash flows over the next four years. The relief entails moratorium on all dues, including spectrum, spectrum usage charges, and annual gross revenues based levies, and also rationalisation of various levies. This move will enable the company to survive impending doom and help the Indian telecom industry to continue to have three private players.

    5. Poonawalla Fincorp: This non-banking finance company’s Managing Director Abhay Bhutada was banned by the market regulator SEBI from accessing capital markets for a year due to a violation of its insider trading regulations. This relates to trades executed by entities related to Bhutada in the company (previously known as Magma Fincorp) before the announcement of its acquisition by Rising Sun Holdings, controlled by Adar Poonawalla. SEBI held that entities controlled by Bhutada, and seven others, traded in Magma Fincorp’s shares before the disclosure of Rising Sun Holdings acquisition of a majority stake in the company. Bhutada resigned as managing director of the NBFC on Thursday evening.

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    The Baseline
    16 Sep 2021
    Chart of the week: HDFC Life and ICICI Prudential’s rising market share

    Chart of the week: HDFC Life and ICICI Prudential’s rising market share

    As the Life Insurance Corporation of India's (LIC) IPO looks to hit markets in FY22, all eyes are on life insurers. And for India's listed private life insurance companies, market share is changing fast.

    The market share (based on first year premiums) of the largest private life insurance company - SBI Life Insurance Company (a joint venture between the State Bank of India and BNP Paribas Cardif) fell to 8% in August 2021 from 8.8% in January 2021. In that time, HDFC Life Insurance Company's market share improved to 6.4% from 5.8% while ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company's market share improved to 4.6% from 0.4%. LIC of India commanded a 68% share of the life insurance market as of August up from 61.5% in January 2021.

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    The Baseline created a screener Relative outperformers vs Nifty50, …
    13 Sep 2021

    Relative outperformers vs Nifty50, with brokerage buy calls and target price upgrades

    Stocks that outperformed the Nifty50 in the past one month, with brokerage buy calls and target price upgrades
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    The Baseline
    12 Sep 2021
    Stocks with buy calls and price upgrades, that are outperforming Nifty50

    Stocks with buy calls and price upgrades, that are outperforming Nifty50

    For this week's analysis, we look at five stocks that:

    1) have target price upgrades from analysts (within the past month)

    2) outperformed the Nifty50 index over the past one month and

    3) received multiple broker buy calls in the past one year. 

    Only 29 stocks qualify for all three criteria across the entire stock universe. We picked out some interesting ones:

    1. Dalmia Bharat: This cement company has caught the attention of brokerages and is in Trendlyne's top screeners as well. It outperformed the Nifty50 by over 14% in the past one month and received five brokerage buy calls over the past year, as well as one target price upgrade in the past month. Geojit notes, "DBL’s strong capacity expansion plans to become a pan India player with 110-130MT by 2031 (48MT by FY24) while maintaining a strong balance sheet (target Net Debt /EBITDA <2x) supports valuation re-rating."

    2. Apollo Hospitals: This healthcare company has been under the radar in the past year with Covid19 limiting patient access and voluntary treatments. But in the past quarter, it has outperformed the Nifty50, and also beat the index by 11% in the past month, and HDFCSec notes that, "With multiple growth drivers in place, Apollo is likely to report strong revenue/EBITDA CAGRs of 31%/52% over the next two years."

    3. KNR Constructions: This construction company is gaining on expectations that it will benefit from the boost in government infrastructure spending. The stock outperformed the Nifty50 by over 3.5% in the past month. As of Jun’21 end, Axis Direct analysts point out, "the KNRCL order book stood robust at Rs 6,596 Cr (2.44x of FY21 revenue), comprising both road and irrigation projects. The current order book size reflects comfortable revenue visibility for the next 2-3 years." 

    4. FIEM Industries: This smallcap automotive light and indicator manufacturer has stolen the limelight after emerging as the sole parts supplier for Ola Electric in key products. This pivots this small player into the realm of larger suppliers, opening up to new orders just as the industry is ramping up, according to analysts. The company outperformed the Nifty50 by 34% the past month as investors jumped into the stock on the Ola news.  

    5. Oil India: Post result analysis of Oil India have been optimistic about its prospects, with the economic rebound. The company's stock was a muted performer over the past year but has seen a steady climb since May, and outperformed the Nifty50 by over 10.9% in the past month. Brokerages have given the stock three target price upgrades in the last month alone.

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    The Baseline
    12 Sep 2021
    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    Five Interesting Stocks Today

    1. Sobha: For the first time in FY22, this real estate company’s insiders are selling shares. And it’s not just any insider, but the company’s Managing Director. On September 3, JC Sharma, the Managing Director of Sobha sold 30,000 shares worth Rs 2.1 crore in an insider trade, during a week when the stock jumped over 30%. Then, on September 7, he sold another 8,000 shares for Rs 65.3 lakhs in another insider trade. The last time a promoter, promoter group, key managerial personnel, or an institutional investor sold the company’s shares was during the first Covid-19 wave in April 2020 when L&T Mutual Fund sold over 21 lakh shares (2.2% stake). Since then, the stock is up by 4.5X.

    2. NOCIL: Brokers are gushing about this specialty chemical manufacturing company. Three brokerages — Axis Direct, Prabhudas Lilladher, and Motilal Oswal gave it a ‘Buy’ rating with an 11% target price. Axis Direct in a note expects the company’s rubber chemicals division to receive a boost due to the resurgent demand for tyres domestically. The average broker target price is at an upside of 26%.

    3. Blue Dart Express: This logistics company’s stock is rallying with cheap valuations despite Superstar investors taking profits. In one month, the stock is up by nearly 16%. However, it remains historically cheap as its trailing 12-month price to earnings (PE) ratio is 58.5 times compared to an average PE of 85.5 times, putting it in the buy zone. In the June 2021 quarter, Radhakishan Damani’s Bright Start Investments sold 67,000 shares in the company, reducing its stake by 0.28% sequentially.

    4. Apollo Hospitals Enterprise: This healthcare company’s promoters have resumed pledging shares. On September 6, the company’s promoter K Vishweshwar Reddy pledged 70,000 shares worth Rs 35 crore. This is the second time Reddy pledged the company’s shares in FY22. Back in April 2021, he pledged 2 lakh shares worth Rs 58 crore. In Q1FY22, 29.9% of the promoter’s shareholding was locked in pledges, a 200 basis points increase sequentially. This was the first time, promoter’s pledges increased sequentially since Q3FY20.

    5. Greaves Cotton: This engineering company is set to strengthen its position in the electric vehicles market. On September 9, it launched a multi-brand retail store for electric two wheelers, three wheelers, and automotive components. The company already has a strong base in the electric scooter market through its wholly-owned subsidiary Ampere Vehicles. Brokerages value Ampere Vehicles at Rs 1,800 crore and expect it to generate Rs 400 crore in sales by FY23 or 20% of the company’s total expected revenue.

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