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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    04 Dec 2016
    Research Report Summary this week: November 27 - Dec 4

    Research Report Summary this week: November 27 - Dec 4

    Close to 40 new reports have landed this week. Stock of choice among analysts is Federal Bank, which has received a fresh BUY reco from Angel Broking.

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-12-02Vinati Organics Limited 655.0012.63%Buy581.55Chola Wealth Direct 1x
    2016-12-02Kaveri Seed Company Limited --%Buy411.50HDFC Securities 1x
    2016-12-02Balkrishna Industries Limited 1076.00-11.68%NEUT.1218.30HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2016-12-02Gujarat Gas Limited --%Buy533.05Axis Direct
    2016-12-02Tata Power Company Limited 83.0012.77%Buy73.60Axis Direct and 1 other1x
    1x
    2016-12-02Graphite India Limited 80.008.25%Hold73.90ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-12-02Sadbhav Engineering Limited 312.0012.64%Buy277.00ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-12-02Navkar Corporation Limited 265.0048.67%Buy178.25Angel Broking and 1 other
    2016-12-01Talwalkars Better Value Fitn.. 348.0039.45%Buy249.55Way2Wealth
    2016-12-01Cox & Kings Limited --%Hold166.10Way2Wealth and 1 other
    2016-12-01Bhartiya International Limited --%-487.75ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other
    2016-12-01Bodal Chemicals Limited 130.00-%-122.40ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-12-01Federal Bank Limited 85.0024.63%Buy68.20Angel Broking 1x
    2016-11-30Atul Auto Limited 391.008.68%Sell428.15CD Equisearch 1x
    1x
    2016-11-30Sanghvi Movers Limited 269.0022.89%Buy218.90Karvy
    2016-11-30Bajaj Electricals Limited 236.009.59%Hold215.35Karvy
    2016-11-30LG Balakrishnan & Bros Limited 672.0010.47%Buy608.30Karvy 1x
    2016-11-30Mayur Uniquoters Ltd 464.0027.95%Buy362.65Karvy
    2016-11-30Mahanagar Gas Limited 823.0011.94%Hold735.20Karvy 1x
    2016-11-30Timken India Limited 614.007.44%Hold571.50ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-11-29Oil India Limited 470.0010.06%Buy427.05HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2016-11-29SHAILY ENGINEERING PLASTICS .. 771.0051.19%Buy509.95Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-11-29Solar Industries India Limited 696.006.58%NEUT.653.00Chola Wealth Direct 2x
    2016-11-29Equitas Holdings Limited 215.0036.90%Buy157.05Axis Direct
    2016-11-29Finolex Cables Limited 427.002.80%Hold415.35Karvy 1x
    2016-11-29Sobha Limited 275.0011.11%Hold247.50ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-29Sheela Foam Ltd IPO --%--BP Wealth and 1 other
    2016-11-28SPICEJET LTD. 72.0014.38%NEUT.62.95HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2016-11-28Indo Count Industries Limited 234.0053.44%Buy152.50Motilal Oswal
    2016-11-28LT Foods Limited 315.0018.42%Buy266.00Karvy
    2016-11-28Sterling Tools Limited 997.0012.15%Hold889.00Karvy
    2016-11-28Mirza International Limited 94.0020.51%Buy78.00Karvy
    2016-11-28Shree Cements Limited 17029.0013.15%Buy15050.00Axis Direct 2x
    1x
    2016-11-28Bata India Limited 535.0030.11%Buy411.20Axis Direct and 1 other1x
    1x
    2016-11-28Credit Analysis And Research.. 1716.0022.71%Buy1398.40Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-11-28Lakshmi Vilas Bank Limited 174.0016.86%Buy148.90Angel Broking 1x
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    The Baseline
    02 Dec 2016
    My Money Series: 'My savings account is in a jewellery store, not a bank'

    My Money Series: 'My savings account is in a jewellery store, not a bank'

    This is the first of Trendlyne's My Money Series - a series on the money decisions of ordinary Indians. Here, we speak to Akhil, a 24 year old photographer. These stories cover Indians across income classes, to find out how people save, invest and spend their money. 

    "We are a family of three, and all of us work - my parents and me. I completed my schooling and got a job. I earn Rs. 2.4 lakh a year, and I started saving for a motorbike when I started working.

    I've wanted a bike for a long time - we don't have any transportation and usually use the bus. The bike model I wanted, a Hero Splendor, cost me Rs. 53,000. I had saved some money over one year of working, which helped me pay an advance of Rs. 25000.  I am paying the balance now through EMI, at Rs. 2,400 per month.

    I try to save some money every month to invest. My monthly expenses are around Rs 10K since I live with my parents, and don't have rent costs.  I don't have a fixed deposit account, and don't put much money in the bank. Instead I contribute Rs. 3,500 every month to a chit fund. 

    I also have a savings account at a jewellery store, into which I add Rs. 1000 per month. The store allows me to keep an account with them, so after 12 months if I want to buy gold, they will give it to me at the lowest rate it was selling at during those 12 months.

    In our family we have always saved in gold. Demonetization has shown that cash, banks, all of this can make life complicated. But people will always buy and sell gold." 

    1
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    The Baseline
    02 Dec 2016
    Auto companies hit by lower sales, officials recommend breaking up Coal India

    Auto companies hit by lower sales, officials recommend breaking up Coal India

    • A big monopoly may be coming to an end, as government officials looking at India's energy demands are recommending the break-up of Coal India, according to Reuters. Government officials have recommended that the company be broken up into seven separate firms, to improve its competitiveness and efficiency. Coal India has been struggling under lower domestic demand, falling quality and coal imports. The government's recommendations however, would mean immediate resistance from the 350,000 people strong unions representing the company's employees. 

    • Lines grow longer at ATMs with salary payouts, with banks and ATMs running dry, people protesting outside bank doors, and banks individually setting withdrawal limits at cash counters of under Rs. 10,000 to meet demand. The new 500 rupee notes are not yet available, and the situation has been complicated by some companies paying their employees in old notes, resulting in queues to exchange these as well. In the meantime the numbers coming in from auto companies suggest a clear impact of de-monetization. Sales at Mahindra & Mahindra are down 38.8% in November compared to October, and at Tata Motors sales are down 28.4%. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Dr. Reddy's, which has gained in technical scores and is currently above all SMAs. The company launched an anti-cancer generic earlier this month in the US.

    • Photo of the day: Emma Morano, said to be the world's oldest person, blows out the candles on her cake on her 117th birthday. Alessandro Garofalo/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    01 Dec 2016
    Jio's All You Can Eat Buffet: it's not a Happy New Year for Airtel and Idea

    Jio's All You Can Eat Buffet: it's not a Happy New Year for Airtel and Idea

    Before Reliance Jio made its announcement today, commentators were expecting that the company would end the free introductory service for users. But Jio has sprung a surprise and announced that the company would extend its free services offer to new customers till March 31st, 2017.

    The impact on the competition was immediately visible: as Mukesh Ambani started speaking, Idea and Bharti Airtel saw shares plunge.  Existing Reliance Jio customers will be shifted to this new plan as well, which is named the ‘Happy New Year Plan’.

    Free services till March 31st means that Jio will end the financial year with a big subscriber number that includes free subscribers, with no dropoff. This also means that shares of Idea and Airtel - which had begun creeping up last week in expectation of free Jio services ending, - will continue to take a beating. Ambani reserved some bile for Airtel, Idea and Vodafone, saying that the Jio rivals have blocked 900 crore calls from the Jio network. The drop rate however, has come down to 20% from 90% at the time of launch, he said. 

    Besides the immediate headline of free services, Reliance Jio is working to rapidly build other advantages over its competition. It is providing under 5 minute activation and an e-KYC service to verify ID through Aadhaar, making it easier for a customer to quickly get a working connection. While both Airtel and Idea have also launched e-KYC verification services, Reliance has the highest coverage so far across 200,000 Reliance Jio outlets. Jio, Ambani says, will double this footprint to 400,000 stores by the time the free offers end in March. 

    Where does this leave Airtel and Idea? Airtel, the market leader, is better placed to get through Jio's salvo to capture market share: it is comfortably placed as far as spectrum and market share is concerned. Idea however, has higher debt on its balance sheet, more limited spectrum and is constrained in cutting prices to combat Jio. Analysts have speculated that Idea may even exit the tower business to reduce the debt burden on its financials.

    The winners for the foreseeable future are definitely the customers, for whom its raining free data. Jio said that data consumption among its customers is 30 times the average on other networks, reminding one of what happens when you are offered an all you can eat buffet. 

    2
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    The Baseline
    01 Dec 2016
    Modi launches an online marketplace for government purchases

    Modi launches an online marketplace for government purchases

    • People trying to withdraw their salaries this week are as predicted, stuck with long lines and empty ATMs, with money supply in the banking system a fifth of its usual capacity. The All India Bank Employees’ Association has sought police protection at bank branches for the next 10 days, as they expect queues full of annoyed customers. While the demonetization move remains popular and the PM has high approval ratings, an alternate circulation of old notes is emerging in old markets such as Janpath, where retailers say they have no choice but to accept old currency notes after sales fell up to 80%. Economists are expecting the impact of the move to continue for several quarters, with at least some downside for GDP growth in the coming months. 

    • The government has appointed a panel of ministers across party lines to steer India's economy towards more cashless and digital transactions over the next one year. The panel is led by Andhra CM Chandrababu Naidu. It has also been tasked with "communicating" the benefits of a digital economy to people across the country.

    • PM Modi has also launched an Amazon-like marketplace for all government purchases, to make such purchases fully digital and reduce corruption in public spending. The marketplace has been live since August, and sells products from laptops and mobile phones to cement.

    • Stock in spotlight: Tata Power, which has cut losses at its Mundra plant, reported a profit of Rs. 336 crore for the September quarter, compared to last year's quarter when it lost Rs. 96 crore. The company has gained from high coal prices. 

    • Photo of the day: Queue management, as a bank employee in Dharavi distributes tokens to people standing in line. Danish Siddiqui/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    30 Nov 2016
    More exits at Flipkart, RBI announces new withdrawal limit for Jan Dhan accounts

    More exits at Flipkart, RBI announces new withdrawal limit for Jan Dhan accounts

    • The RBI has announced a monthly withdrawal limit of Rs. 10,000 from Jan Dhan accounts. Any additional amount required, the Central Bank said, will be issued and documented by banks on a case by case basis. Finance Minister Jaitley noted that the step was taken because the government suspected these accounts were being used to launder money. In the meantime Sensex began to show hints of recovery, rising for the fourth day in a row. Analysts say that they are expecting the cash situation to fully stabilize in four to six weeks. However salary payouts and withdrawals starting beginning of December is likely to lengthen queues at banks and ATMs. 

    • A senior engineering head at Flipkart is departing the startup to join Airbnb, while the head of Flipkart's yet to begin private label business has also departed the company, in the wake of seven high-profile exits previously in 2016. Flipkart saw better festival sales compared to Amazon, but Morgan Stanley once again cut its Flipkart share valuation this week. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Essel Propack, which has hit a new 52 week high. The company's recent Q2 results announced end October showed net profits up 27%.

    • Photo of the day: Hindus in Kathmandu, Nepal light oil lamps in honor of the recently departed at the Bagmati River. Narendra Shrestha/The Guardian

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    The Baseline
    29 Nov 2016
    Jaitley gives black money holders another chance to declare assets, Tata Steel signs letter of intent to sell off UK units

    Jaitley gives black money holders another chance to declare assets, Tata Steel signs letter of intent to sell off UK units

    • FM Arun Jaitley has announced a new scheme for black money holders to declare assets post-demonetization, under which the individual would have to pay 50% of the disclosed amount as tax. 25% of the money would also have to be deposited in a non-interest earning account for four years - an additonal requirement that seems focused on easing the liquidity situation and NPA ratios for Indian banks. Rs. 8.4 trillion has already been deposited since the demonetization announcement, more than half of the estimated old notes in circulation. According to the RBI, the total withdrawals amounted to Rs. 2.16 trillion from bank accounts and ATMs.

    • In the meantime a Reuters survey found that India's GDP grew at 7.5% in the July-September quarter, but the impact of demonetization is likely to see a pullback in growth in the coming months, with customers cutting spending and rural economies thrown out of gear.

    • Stock in spotlight: Tata Steel, which has gained over 94% from its 52 week low and is currently above all SMAs. The company  announced yesterday that O P Bhatt, former SBI head, would be its interim Chairman, replacing Cyrus Mistry. Bhatt was head when SBI cleared a $1 billion loan for the Tatas "in five minutes" for the acquisition of Corus Steel. Corus - now Tata Steel UK - is reeling and has signed a letter of intent, for purchase by the Liberty House Group for 100 million pounds. Tata Steel UK invested 1.5 billion pounds of capital into its business over the past nine years.

    • Photo of the day: A man puts his debit card back into a wallet printed to look like the banned 1000 rupee note. Jayanta Dey/Reuters India

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    The Baseline
    28 Nov 2016

    The forgotten role of the Company Board of Directors

    In the past weeks, the crisis at a high profile Indian conglomerate has resulted in plenty of coverage surrounding board decisions, and battles for control. Company boards are rarely in focus in media: usually it is the CEO and other senior officers that are at the forefront in discussions of company performance and objectives.

    The recent coverage of Tata Sons' board tussles therefore, highlights an unfortunate truth that experts have long highlighted, but usually goes unnoticed in media - company boards are often damaged entities, the focus of infighting, allegiance battles, and tests for loyalty.

    The problem with boards is borne out by broader data. They are rarely effective in what they are meant for, which is reviewing and improving company performance. Experts point out that board decisions are in fact,perfunctory and fail to shape the company's strategic direction. In one McKinsey study, when asked who was responsible for a short-term focus on company results over long-term value, 47% of senior management surveyed pointed to the board of directors. 

    The forgotten role of the Board

    So far, in the Tata Sons drama, a series of unfortunate events have played out. Cyrus Mistry, the Tata Sons Chairman appointed in 2011, gets unceremoniously fired, but then goes on record threatening legal action against Tata Sons, and points out  a 'shadow Chairman' pulling the strings in board decisions: former Chairman Ratan Tata. Recordings of a board meeting requested by Mistry go missing. Independent directors are cornered and their allegiances questioned. Efforts begin to oust Mistry from individual Tata companies.

    In addition, some disturbing conflicts of interest arose. Right before the move to fire Mistry, two new directors (Ajay Piramal and Venu Srinivasan) were appointed to the Tata Sons board. Mistry's replacement O P Bhatt, the proposed new Chairman of Tata Steel, was the head of SBI when the bank had notoriously cleared a $1 billion loan in five minutes to Tata Steel, for the cost of acquiring Corus. The ties between India's biggest lender and the Tata group of companies were already incestuous - Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has been an information technology (IT) services provider to SBI, and has implemented its Core Banking System as well its operational support.

    Mistry insists that the efforts to oust him started when he tried to introduce more transparency around the role of Tata Trusts in the company, as well as clarify the role of various directors at Tata Sons and the group of companies. Tata Sons has contested this.

    But across the world, the legal codes for company boards stress two major aspects: loyalty (placing the company's interests ahead of one's own) and prudence (applying proper care, skill and diligence to business decisions). In the case of Tata Sons, the absence of prudence by the board is clear from the outset: a Chairman's decisions need board ratification, and the  decisions to sell failing businesses and cost-cutting are ones that needed board approval. Why then, allege these as key reasons to fire the Chairman?

    The company board is meant to be an enforcer of quality governance in the company, and the entity focused on creating long term value to shareholders.What we see instead, is a devalued body that is politicized and overtly controlled by one or two influential officers of the company. This becomes a significant problem when it comes to realigning a company under a new CEO/management, or adapting to more competitive markets.

    In the case of Tata Sons, the dissatisfaction against Mistry apparently rose from his willingness to cut out what he saw as flailing businesses of the company, including showcase projects such as the Nano car. Mistry's counter-accusations after he was fired have emphasized the lack of company focus on shareholder value, with the former Chairman intent on retaining his influence. 

    The problem of the 'independent director'

    Only 14% of the 692 directors and executives McKinsey surveyed in 2014 picked a "reputation for independent thinking" as among the main criteria boards considered while appointing new directors.The way directors are appointed today tends to pack boards with generalists and loyalists, who don't have relevant industry expertise and therefore cannot comment effectively on the direction of the company, or point out obsolete businesses and ways to stay ahead of the competition. This devalues the board further, turning it into a rubber stamp for the officer it favors. 

    The issues of corporate governance, the influence of senior officers and board independence are of great concern in an environment where Indian companies across Pharma, IT, textiles and other sectors are drawingattention from international regulators like the FDA and US Justice Department for their business practices and corporate governance norms.

    At the same time, Indian banks are struggling today with bad loans - the consequences of decades of cronyism and and lending of large amounts of money to companies based on personal relationships and influence. Perhaps the biggest, most necessary outcome from this public battle in the Tata Group is a re-examination of our corporate governance norms, to examine how to move forward with improved disclosure, due diligence and transparency. The current scenario suggests that there is much work to be done. 

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    The Baseline
    28 Nov 2016
    India's IT companies turn towards US hires, with Trump administration likely to tamp down on H1B

    India's IT companies turn towards US hires, with Trump administration likely to tamp down on H1B

    • India's IT companies are looking to speed up their acquisitions in the US, and increase hiring from American colleges to combat new norms that are likely from the incoming US administration. Trump has promised to tighten outsourcing and visa rules within his first 100 days. Signs that the new government is likely to follow through is reflected in the President Elect's pick for Attorney General - Jeff Sessions, who has repeatedly criticised the H1B visa program in the past and suggested doing away with it entirely. The move to reduce guest workers travelling from India to the US is set to impact operating margins of Indian IT, as they realign towards local hiring. 

    • Small-time financers in the informal lending markets are reeling under demonetization and with the drying up of funds. These rural moneylenders typically do daily lending to farmers and traders, and are struggling with large amounts of old notes they are unable to exchange and use with limits on withdrawals, and the long queues at rural banks.  

    • Stock in spotlight: The pharma company Jubiliant LifeSciences, which has received approvals for generic versions of high blood pressure medication, and is now seeking shareholder approval to raise an additional Rs. 1000 crore. The stock has gained 92.8% in the past six months. 

    • Photo of the day: Contestants pose during a beard and mustache competition in Bangalore. Kiran Manjunath/AFP/Getty

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    The Baseline
    27 Nov 2016
    Research reports this week: November 20 - 27

    Research reports this week: November 20 - 27

    Over 20 research reports this week, with 12 BUY reports. Stockpick of the week from brokers is National Buildings Construction, which received a BUY recommendation from ICICI Securities and a target upgrade from Reliance Securities. The stock has gained 39.7% from its 52 week low. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-11-24National Buildings Construct.. 280.0023.70%Buy226.35ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other
    2016-11-24Zee Entertainment Enterprise.. 530.0020.50%Buy439.85ICICI Securities Limited 2x
    1x
    2016-11-23Suprajit Engineering Limited 231.0022.13%Buy189.15HDFC Securities 1x
    1x
    2016-11-23Larsen & Toubro(L&T) Limited 1634.0019.30%Buy1369.70HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    1x
    2016-11-23Birla Corporation Limited 759.0013.39%Buy669.35Motilal Oswal
    2016-11-23IRB Infrastructure Developer.. 235.0026.04%Hold186.45ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-23Siyaram Silk Mills Limited 1330.008.57%Hold1225.00ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2016-11-22The India Cements Limited 175.0048.75%Buy117.65ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    1x
    2016-11-22NHPC Limited 28.003.32%Hold27.10ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-11-22Cummins India Limited 645.0016.78%Sell775.05CD Equisearch 1x
    2016-11-21Techno Electric & Engineerin.. 371.0021.24%Buy306.00HDFC Securities
    2016-11-21V-Guard Industries Limited 234.0035.65%Buy172.50HDFC Securities 1x
    2016-11-21Voltas Limited 351.0016.23%Buy302.00HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    1x
    2016-11-21Atul Auto Limited 511.0014.75%Buy445.30Motilal Oswal 1x
    1x
    2016-11-21Greaves Cotton Limited 167.0033.60%Buy125.00Chola Wealth Direct
    2016-11-21Bajaj Finserv Limited 3500.0017.92%Buy2968.00Dynamic Levels 1x
    2016-11-21Rupa & Company Limited --%-260.85ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-11-21Gujarat Gas Limited 570.007.56%Hold529.95ICICI Securities Limited
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