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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    03 Feb 2017
    Indian IT leaders meeting Trump to lobby against H1B changes

    Indian IT leaders meeting Trump to lobby against H1B changes

    Nasscom and Indian IT services leaders are set to meet US President Donald Trump to lobby against the proposed changes to the H1B visa program. A bill introduced in the Congress, which Trump is said to support, plans to clamp down on the program by doubling the salary paid to H-1B visa holders. US workers in the tech industry have complained that H1B allows US companies to outsource work to H1B visa holders at much lower costs. Indian IT leaders and Nasscom however, had said that H1B is addressing a labour shortage in he US in this sector. 

    The special CBI court has dropped all charges against the Maran brothers in the 2G case, givingSun TV a boost in the stock markets today, with the stock trading up as much as 20% as of this writing. Sun TV has long been surpassing industry averages, in P/E and return on assets, but the legal issues had held the stock price down.  However the fate of the merger deal between Reliance Communications and Aircel still depends on the Supreme Court order due today, with that case being separately dealt from the Maran brothers case.

    Stock in spotlight: Dr. Lal Pathlabs, which fell sharply yesterday after its Q3 results announcement showed a decline in net profit compared to last year's quarter. A closer look however shows that the decline is due to an ESOP reversal in last year's Q3 which inflated previous year numbers, and reported profits before taxes and sales growth look strong.

    Photo of the day: A man and his camel take part in a camel-decoration competition in Nagaur, Rajasthan. Himanshu Sharma/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    02 Feb 2017
    Allocation to infrastructure a boost to companies in the sector

    Allocation to infrastructure a boost to companies in the sector

    India's infrastructure sector gets to run, jump and fly: The Union Budget has provided a big boost to logistics and infrastructure firms, with the government earmarking Rs. 2.41 trillion for the transportation sector, across roads, railways, waterlinks and aviation. The National Highways allocation has increased to Rs. 64,900 crore from Rs.57,976 crore in 2016-17.

    India imports 80% of its oil, but has been weak in bidding and winning oil assets globally. Consequently the price of oil has long been a drag on the economy and consumption, and the Finance Minister, hoping to change that, says that the government is looking to combine them to form an integrated oil company that has the capacity to take bigger risks, and participate in large global oilfield bids. Such a combine could likely include ONGC, OIL, HPCL, BPCL and IOC. 

    Stock in spotlight: Cummins India, which posted strong Q3 results yesterday, and is up 6.21% in the stock markets on performance that boosted incomes 18% YoY. 

    Photo of the day: A farmer carries a water pump to irrigate his field, in Kolkata. The Budget has boosted spending for the agriculture sector, and proposed reforms that enable farmers to sell directly to markets. Rupak De Chowdhuri/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    01 Feb 2017
    Jaitley cuts taxes for the middle class, small businesses

    Jaitley cuts taxes for the middle class, small businesses

    Finance Minister Arun Jaitley has announced some tax sops to individuals and companies in his budget speech - a reduction in the tax rate from 10% to 5% for those in the Rs. 2.5 lakh - Rs 5 lakh income tax slab. Higher individual earners will however feel the pinch, with a new surcharge of 10% on those earning an income between Rs 50 lakh to Rs 1 crore.

    The tax rate for companies with an annual turnover of upto Rs 50 crore has been brought down to 25% from 30%. The government is hoping that a lower tax rate for these SMBs will improve tax compliance, helping clean up the black money economy post-demonetization. Moody's called the budget "fiscally prudent" and that it would support reforms if well-implemented. 

    Against the new Trump ethos: In a boost to markets and more open investments, the FM has proposed abolishing the FIPB, which clears proposals for foreign investments up to Rs. 5,000 crore. This, Jaitley said, would be replaced with a simpler e-filing process aimed towards creating a better investment environment for FIIs, 

    Stock in spotlight: Suven LifeSciences announced a net profit jump of 34.3% for Q3 compared to the same quarter last year, with operating margins boosted by lower expenses and finance costs. QoQ for the company saw net profits fall 8.6%, although for the nine month period the company's incomes are up overall by 9.98% and profits up 32.77% compared to the previous year. 

    Photo of the day: Arun Jaitley with ministry officials, to take part in the Halwa Ceremony that marks the beginning of the printing of budget documents. PTI

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    The Baseline
    31 Jan 2017
    Trump drafts executive order on H1B

    Trump drafts executive order on H1B

    ONGC has recovered the first tranche of monthly payments, this month of $19 million from Venezuela's state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuela. This payment to ONGC was towards recovering pending dividends, according to a senior official. ONGC will be receiving these instalment payments every month, linked to the market price of oil. The company has hit a new 52 week high today on the news.

    US President Donald Trump has reportedly drafted an executive order taking aim at the H1B visa program, which Indian tech companies have used for decades to staff low-cost projects for US companies. If Trump sticks to his campaign promise overhauling the H1B program, Infosys, Wipro, TCS and others will have to radically shift hiring and staffing policies for US projects. This will also impact how American companies hire international tech workers. 

    Stock in spotlight: Dilip Buildcon is in the news today due to a project awarded to it in Andhra Pradesh being recalled. However, the company's completion rate has been impressive, prompting recent BUY recommendations from analysts.  

    Photo of the day: College students spin cotton on a wheel in Ahmedabad, in a tribute to Mahatma Gandhi. Amit Dave/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    30 Jan 2017
    Donald Trump's executive order throws alliances into chaos

    Donald Trump's executive order throws alliances into chaos

    Before Trump's inauguration, many analysts suggested that his campaign promises were hyperbole - that his promises of building a wall, taxing imports and banning Muslims from entering the US were campaign talk, and not likely to be actual policy.

    One week into the Trump administration however, has proved that Trump was serious, immediately passing orders towards building a wall on the Mexican border, and signing an executive order banning all refugees, and banning immigration from seven countries including Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Protests have mounted outside US airports as international travellers were detained at airports and some sent back. The Trump administration is now reportedly considering adding Pakistan to the list. 

    Reliance Defence and Engineering has signed a Rs. 916 crore contract with the Ministry of Defence for 14 fast patrol vessels, for the Indian Coast Guard. This is the first time a private sector shipyard has won a design and build contract for such vehicles from the Indian Armed Forces. 

    Stock in spotlight: Geojit Financial Services Limited, which has declared a 19% increase in revenues and a 83% increase in net profits YoY for its Q3.

    Photo of the day: People take photographs of the Beating the Retreat ceremony in New Delhi. Cathal Mcnaughton/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    29 Jan 2017
    Stock Research Reports for the week: Jan 21-29

    Stock Research Reports for the week: Jan 21-29

    More than 50 stock research reports for the week from HDFC Securities, ICICI Securities and more are live! Stock pick of the week is the plastic and packaging firm Supreme Industries, which saw strong volume growth despite demonetization, and expects the revival of rural demand to drive growth in Q4. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2017-01-27The Karnataka Bank Limited 136.0017.09%Buy116.15Axis Direct
    2017-01-27Yes Bank Limited 1500.007.28%Buy1398.20Axis Direct and 1 other2x
    3x
    2017-01-27Havells India Limited 360.00-15.07%Hold423.90Axis Direct 1x
    2x
    2017-01-27MindTree Limited --%Sell472.35Axis Direct and 1 other2x
    2x
    2017-01-27Crompton Greaves Consumer El.. 178.00-5.19%Hold187.75Reliance Securities
    2017-01-27Nilkamal Limited 1756.0010.15%Hold1594.20Karvy 1x
    2017-01-27Ashok Leyland Limited 110.0018.92%Buy92.50Karvy 2x
    1x
    2017-01-27Biocon Limited 1120.009.99%Hold1018.25ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-01-27Supreme Industries Limited 1050.0011.76%Buy939.55ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2017-01-27Arvind Limited 480.0029.21%Buy371.50ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-01-27Syngene International Limited 570.001.42%Hold562.00ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    1x
    2017-01-27Bharti Airtel Limited 315.00-2.61%Hold323.45ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2017-01-27Kajaria Ceramics Limited 600.002.35%Hold586.20ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2017-01-27Wipro Limited 510.009.42%Hold466.10ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2017-01-27Exide Industries Limited 240.0021.58%Buy197.40ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-01-27Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited 840.006.96%Hold785.35ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2017-01-25Greenply Industries Limited --%Hold271.55Way2Wealth and 1 other1x
    2017-01-25Hindustan Unilever Limited (.. --%ACC.855.80Way2Wealth and 1 other
    2017-01-25HCL Technologies Limited 718.0014.83%Sell843.00Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other
    2017-01-25HDFC Bank Limited 1570.0021.33%Buy1294.00Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other1x
    1x
    2017-01-25TVS Motor Company Limited 286.0026.98%Sell391.65Nirmal Bang Institutional 2x
    2017-01-25INOX Leisure Limited 320.0041.16%Buy226.70Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other1x
    2017-01-25Persistent Systems Limited 736.0021.46%Buy605.95Chola Wealth Direct and 1 other2x
    2017-01-25Asian Paints Limited 1034.006.71%NEUT.969.00Chola Wealth Direct and 1 other4x
    1x
    2017-01-25MOIL Limited --%-371.10ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    1x
    2017-01-25Zee Entertainment Enterprise.. 530.006.88%Buy495.90ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    1x
    2017-01-25Tata Communications Limited 785.008.88%Hold721.00ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2017-01-25Ashoka Buildcon Limited 190.002.70%Hold185.00ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2017-01-25Ajanta Pharma Limited 1960.0013.60%Buy1725.40ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2017-01-25Swaraj Engines Limited 1565.009.44%Buy1430.00ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-01-25HT Media Limited 80.000.95%Hold79.25ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-01-24Rallis India Limited 270.0015.58%Buy233.60HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    1x
    2017-01-24Dilip Buildcon Limited 333.0037.46%Buy242.25HDFC Securities and 1 other
    2017-01-24JSW Energy Limited 59.00-5.75%NEUT.62.60HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2017-01-24UltraTech Cement Limited 3380.00-8.28%NEUT.3685.15HDFC Securities and 1 other1x
    2017-01-24Jyothy Laboratories Limited --%Hold356.40Way2Wealth and 1 other1x
    3x
    2017-01-24Amara Raja Batteries Limited --%Buy901.05BOB Capital Markets Ltd. and 1 other1x
    1x
    2017-01-24LIC Housing Finance Limited 670.0020.24%Buy557.20Axis Direct 2x
    2017-01-24Unichem Laboratories Limited 324.0020.45%Buy269.00Karvy and 1 other1x
    2017-01-24Axis Bank Limited 460.00-2.70%Hold472.75ICICI Securities Limited 2x
    1x
    2017-01-24United Spirits Limited 2700.0018.94%Buy2270.05ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-01-23AIA Engineering Limited 1571.0013.04%Buy1389.75HDFC Securities
    2017-01-23FORCE MOTORS LTD. 4952.0016.78%Buy4240.45HDFC Securities
    2017-01-23Reliance Industries Limited 1330.0029.74%Buy1025.15Axis Direct
    2017-01-23Tata Consultancy Services Li.. 2254.00-4.41%Hold2358.05Axis Direct 1x
    5x
    2017-01-23The South Indian Bank Limited 24.0011.89%Buy21.45Axis Direct 1x
    1x
    2017-01-23Can Fin Homes Limited 2116.0020.22%Buy1760.05Axis Direct
    2017-01-23Federal Bank Limited 96.0022.29%Buy78.50Axis Direct and 1 other1x
    2x
    2017-01-23V-Mart Retail Limited --%-519.00Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-01-23Adani Power Limited 33.00-9.84%Hold36.60Reliance Securities
    2017-01-23Lakshmi Vilas Bank Limited 140.00-0.28%NEUT.140.40Chola Wealth Direct 1x
    2017-01-23Motherson Sumi Systems Limited 335.00-2.63%Hold344.05ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-01-23VST Industries Limited 2792.0016.33%Hold2400.00ICICI Securities Limited 1x
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    The Baseline
    27 Jan 2017
    Buildup to Budget 2017, Reliance Communications his new 52 week low

    Buildup to Budget 2017, Reliance Communications his new 52 week low

    Build-up to the Budget: The government's budget deficiti may go over 3% as Arun Jaitley prepares to borrow in order to spend on the economy, according to officials. The Indian economy is not yet back to full health after demonetization, and the government is hoping that additional spending on roads, irrigation and rail projects, as well as sops to taxpayers, will boost spending and drive growth back up. 

    Mistry companies have filed an affidavit with the National Law Tribunal, saying that independent directors at Tata Sons were newly appointed in order to fire Cyrus Mistry. The affidavit alleges that the newly inducted directors Amit Chandra and Ajay Piramal attended their second board meeting without knowing the facts, and colluding with the Tatas to cast their vote. The affidavit also alleges that the three directors had done business together and knew each other well.

    Stock in spotlight: Reliance Communications, which hit a new 52 week low today on news that Moody's has revised the company's rating downward, from “B1” to “B2” with negative outlook. Moody stated that EBITDA from the company’s Indian operations - which contribute around 85% of EBITDA, will remain under pressure over next 6-12 months in light of intensifying competition in India’s mobile sector and the government’s demonetization.

    Photo of the day: NSG Commandos march at the Republic Day parade. 

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    The Baseline
    25 Jan 2017
    Blood on the streets for Indian telecom

    Blood on the streets for Indian telecom

    It's blood on the streets for the telecom industry: The Q3 results for Airtel yesterday showed the big dent that Jio's free plans have had on profits for the telecom sector. Bharti Airtel's results showed the company's cash flow - Rs. 3,500+ crore in the September quarter - had disappeared completely, down to Rs. 1.5 crore as the firm tried to woo back subscribers lured by Jio's free plans. The company's revenues declined by 5.3% YoY, and operating profits fell by 9.5% YoY for the company. Airtel's results don't bode well for the industry as Jio finalizes free plans that extend beyond March. Airtel as the market leader has some cushion in subscribers and revenue. Smaller telecom players are likely to post even worse results. 

    Donald Trump has pulled out of the TPP trade effort but has separately reached out to India for an economic and defense partnership, calling the country "a true friend and partner". The US plans to host PM Modi soon to discuss a bilateral partnership. There are some aspects of Trump's 'America first' policies however, that may not bode well for Indian companies, including his plans to tax imports and penalize US firms that move jobs and factories abroad. 

    Stock in spotlight: Atlanta Limited, which is sharply up today on news of the firm receiving a Rs. 1,292 crore NHAI contract for six-laning of the NH8 highway in Gujarat. 

    Photo of the day: A camel caravan walks through the desert. Hanbing Wang/SkyPixel

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    The Baseline
    24 Jan 2017
    HCL revenues up 14.2% YoY in Q3

    HCL revenues up 14.2% YoY in Q3

    • HCL Technologies announced a revenue growth of 14.2% YoY and 2.6% QoQ for its third quarter, logging in Rs. 11,814 crores of revenue.  Net income is up 7.8% YoY and 2.8% QoQ. The company's guidance for FY'17 revenues is growth between 12% to 14%, and the company says that they expect the final number to be "in the middle of this range". Growth in the financial services vertical for HCL is below average at 5.4%, pointing to the continued headwinds in this sector.

    • President Donald Trump has begun closing ranks against trade deals, marking a new era in global trade policy. Trump reversed Obama's participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a global trade deal, and plans to renegotiate other deals in moves that Indian IT, Pharma and other companies that do significant business with the US are watching closely. Trump said that his priority was to "bring jobs back to the US", and that "We’re going to stop the ridiculous trade deals that have taken everybody out of our country and taken companies out of our country".

    • Stock in spotlight: IOC hits a new 52 week hightoday as the company announces expansion plans and ramps up its Paradip refinery. 

    • Photo of the day: People attend a mass marriage ceremony in Mumbai, India. Danish Siddiqui/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    23 Jan 2017
    BSE IPO opens today

    BSE IPO opens today

    • Asia’s oldest stock exchange opens its Initial Public Offering (IPO) today, ahead of NSE's planned IPO. The BSE is looking to raise more than Rs. 1,243 crore. Analysts have so far estimated that the price band BSE is selling its shares at - Rs. 805-806 - is competitive, with a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.6, compared to India's listed Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) which is currently trading at a P/E of around 40.

    • JSW Steel has responded to queries on rumors that the company is in talks to buy a controlling stake in debt ridden Monnet Ispat. JSW clarified, stating that it hopes to expand to a 40 million tonne steel company in the coming years, and is looking at multiple options to achieve that goal, including acquisitions. However, it has refused to say how far talks have progressed with acquisition targets.

    • Stock in spotlight: L&T Technology Services, which announced Q3 revenues of Rs. 810.4 crore, an increase of 3.9% yoy. QoQ growth is down 1.5%, with the company noting that some expected client projects failed to come through during the quarter.  

    • Photo of the day: Civil defense workers take part in a rehearsal for Republic Day celebrations in Kolkata. Rupak de Chowdhuri/Reuters

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