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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    28 Dec 2016
    Battle of Kurukshetra: Mistry-Tata war will drag on for a while in courts, experts say

    Battle of Kurukshetra: Mistry-Tata war will drag on for a while in courts, experts say

    • Its a time for legal suits and counter-suits: Mistry last week has filed a petition against the Tatas at the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), a body that deals with corporate grievances in India. He has alleged mismanagement and "shareholder oppression" by Tata Sons, and has asked that the group's board of directors be replaced. On Tuesday, the Tatas filed a legal notice against Mistry, saying he breached confidentiality rules in his public war against the Tata trusts. The Tata suit says Mistry illegally shared "confidential data, business strategies, financial information" about Tata Sons. The cases are unlikely to be decided immediately, and will probably wind their way through the legal system and potentially the Supreme Court. 

    • Cadila Healthcare clarified after newspapers today claimed the company's subsidiary Zydus had received a warning letter from the USFDA. Cadila said the FDA letter was not a warning letter, but an 'untitled' letter. Such untitled letters typically do not carry warning statements. Scrutiny by regulatory authorities such as the US FDA on Indian pharma companies has ramped up over the last year, as these firms attempt to access the US and Europe markets. This has not gone well for Indian pharma firms - major Indian drug companies, including Sun Pharma and Glenmark have been subject to FDA observation letters on safety violations at plants.

    • Stock in spotlight: Godfrey Phillips, which saw a sudden spike in volumes combined with high gains - the stock is up 5.8% in the markets today. BSE has noted that there is no recent news/announcements on the company, and the spike is unexplained. 

    • Photo of the day: Engineers in South Korea test a four meter tall manned robot called Method 2. Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty

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    The Baseline
    27 Dec 2016
    Officials say they're ready to act against suspicious real estate transactions

    Officials say they're ready to act against suspicious real estate transactions

    • PM Modi is not done with his shakeup against black money, with tax officials saying that their focus is now examining tax returns for suspicious real estate assets, such as property registered in the names of relatives and trusted friends. Modi, saying that "there is no question of a retreat", has apparently given the go-ahead to step up scrutiny of such transactions.  

    • Reliance Jio is set to be a powerful telecommunications player thanks to the massive cash reserves Mukesh Ambani has in hand, from the company's petrochemicals and gas revenues. Reliance Jio has managed 50 million mobile subscribers in 83 days, thanks to the generous freebies the company has doled out in data and voice, coupled with the cheap handsets. Reliance's cash rich balance sheet gives Ambani plenty of room to decide where he wants to venture next, and his effort now seems to be focused on turning the Jio network into a powerful payments gateway. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Glenmark, which is trending bullish in the stock market and has received FDA approvals to sell the drugs Ezetimibe and Tretinoin in the US markets. 

    • Photo of the day: Schoolgirls in Ukraine write letters to Santa asking him to return their parents - who are prisoners of war in Russia - back home. Efrem Lukatsky/AP

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    The Baseline
    26 Dec 2016
     Ratan Tata's 'postmen' control decision-making, observers say

    Ratan Tata's 'postmen' control decision-making, observers say

    • Finance Minister Arun Jaitley clarified today that there would be no taxes imposed on long-term capital gains, a day after PM Modi had said that people earning from financial markets must make a "fair contribution" to nation building. The remark by the PM had created consternation among investors that one of the avenues free from taxes would now also come under the net. 

    • Tata's "postmen": Mistry's firing — and the return of the 78 year old Ratan Tata as interim chairman — triggered an unpleasant argument in full public view, that has led to a nearly $10 billion decline in the market value of Tata's many listed companies. The core of this argument has been the control that the Tata Trusts (and consequently, Ratan Tata) has on business decisions. Since 2014, the Trusts can nominate one-third of Tata directors, and Tata insiders interviewed by Reuters, say critical business decisions require their approval. Mistry called these directors the "postmen" who carried out Ratan Tata's bidding. 

    • Stock in spotlight: SREI Infrastructure, which is trading above its 200 day SMA and has announced a proposal to raise Rs. 500 crore, through a public issue of secured redeemable debentures. The issue opens January 3 and closes on January 20, 2017.  

    • Photo of the day: A dye worker suns the fabric after washing it, in Dhaka. Hossain/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    25 Dec 2016, 02:56PM
     Research Reports and Stockpick of the week - Dec 18 - 25

    Research Reports and Stockpick of the week - Dec 18 - 25

    28 new research reports landed this week! Stockpick among analysts is Natco Pharma, with an estimated 44% upside according to Karvy. The company has seen a strong quarter on the back of sales of generic Tamiflu. Natco is manufacturing the first generic equivalent of Tamiflu now available in the US, where the drug saw around $403 million worth of annual sales in 2015. Flu season in the US is typically in the ongoing period of December-March, where a large % of Tamilflu sales occur. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-12-23Voltas Limited 325.003.03%ACC.315.45Nirmal Bang Institutional 1x
    1x
    2016-12-22Lumax Industries Limited 893.0018.88%ACC.751.15CD Equisearch
    2016-12-22Natco Pharma Limited 841.0044.15%Buy583.40Karvy
    2016-12-22NRB Bearing Limited 118.008.81%Hold108.45Karvy 1x
    2016-12-22Gillette India Limited 4612.007.86%Hold4276.00Karvy 1x
    2016-12-22Firstsource Solutions Limited 46.0026.55%Buy36.35Karvy
    2016-12-21Gulf Oil Corporation Limited 600.00127.49%NEUT.263.75HDFC Securities
    2016-12-21Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Lim.. 900.00-2.73%NEUT.925.30HDFC Securities 1x
    2016-12-21Maharashtra Seamless Limited 240.003.25%Hold232.45ICICI Securities Limited
    2016-12-20Idea Cellular Limited 65.008.19%Sell70.80Motilal Oswal 2x
    2016-12-20SH Kelkar and Co. Ltd. 481.0062.89%Buy295.30Motilal Oswal
    2016-12-20Biocon Limited 630.0032.10%Sell927.85Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-12-20National Aluminium Company L.. 60.004.53%Hold57.40Reliance Securities 1x
    2016-12-20MT Educare Limited 130.0013.19%Hold114.85Karvy 1x
    2016-12-20Elgi Equipments Limited 194.008.90%Hold178.15Karvy 1x
    2016-12-20Hester Biosciences Limited 873.0020.41%Buy725.00Karvy
    2016-12-20Mahindra Holidays & Resorts .. 429.009.45%Hold391.95Karvy 1x
    2016-12-20Gujarat Mineral Development .. 111.0021.05%Buy91.70Karvy
    2016-12-19Persistent Systems Limited 700.0016.28%NEUT.602.00Motilal Oswal and 1 other1x
    2x
    2016-12-19Essel Propack Limited 268.008.77%Buy246.40Axis Direct
    2016-12-19Technocraft Industries (Indi.. 433.0018.76%Buy364.60Axis Direct
    2016-12-19Aegis Logistics Limited 167.0024.35%ACC.134.30CD Equisearch
    2016-12-19Bata India Limited 500.0017.67%Buy424.90Karvy 2x
    1x
    2016-12-19JBM Auto Limited 242.008.94%Hold222.15Karvy 1x
    2016-12-19Indo Count Industries Limited 204.0028.79%Buy158.40Karvy
    2016-12-19The Jammu & Kashmir Bank Lim.. 75.0023.86%Buy60.55ICICI Securities Limited 1x
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    The Baseline
    23 Dec 2016
     MyMoney Series: 'I would like to take more risks in my investments'

    MyMoney Series: 'I would like to take more risks in my investments'

    This week on the MyMoney Series, we talk to Vivek Subramanian, CTO and co-founder at PrimaSeller, a startup in the retail channel space. Vivek has worked in IT for close to a decade. He is an adventurer outdoors but not in his investing, and he talks about his plan to change that.

    I save around 60k per month - since I stay at home, I also save on rent money. My investing pattern is pretty similar to what my dad does since he plays the role of an informal fund manager. That role now is gradually being shared by my wife - she is more risk friendly than my dad, so I expect that my portfolio will change towards a bit riskier ( and hopefully higher return) investments. Most of my money has been in very-low risk instruments -  80% of it is in FD, PPF, NPS, and savings accounts, 10% across some mutual funds and 10% in stocks.

    I don't spend much day to day. I haven't made a big ticket purchase in the past couple of years. The last expensive item I bought was an iPhone two years ago. This was when my salary was higher that what I make now after joining a startup, so the 50k that I spent on the phone wasn't a big pinch. 

    In the last couple of months I had one fairly big spend item - my wedding - which cost around a year of savings for me. Since putting that money in FD wasn't going to help much, I salted the cash away in my savings account and was careful not to spend it. I got married about a couple of weeks or so after the demonentization. Paying off wedding expenses required some planning in withdrawing money, given the limits.

    My monthly spend usually never exceeds 20-30k. When I do splurge, I splurge on collecting whisky, traveling and dining out - in that order. So the rule is quite simple - when I figure out what I want to splurge on next,  I go into a savings overdrive except for the bare essentials.

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    The Baseline
    23 Dec 2016
    Modi's and Moody's people argue about India's rating

    Modi's and Moody's people argue about India's rating

    • There's been an argument brewing between the Modi government and the Moody's rating agency. Reuters reports that the Indian government had been pushing Moody's for a ratings upgrade for the Indian economy. India is rated at Baa3 by Moody's, the agency's lowest notch for debt considered investment grade. This has kept India's borrowing costs high, and India's debt payments account for more than a fifth of government revenues. However the agency has so far refused to revise India's rating, citing the debt laden banking system while the Indian government questioned the agency's metrics. 

    • SunPharma has acquired 13 million shares - equivalent to 14.58% of equity - of scPharmaceuticals Inc.,  a US pharma company, which manufactures wearable products that administer drugs periodically into the body, without requiring IVs and intramuscular injections. SunPharma is trading higher on the news of the stake buy. SCP was founded in 2014. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Hexaware Technologies, which beat estimates in its Q2 results and saw revenue growth of 4.8% QoQ, today announced a share buyback of 5.6 million equity shares at a price of Rs. 240/share through the tender route. 

    • Photo of the day: A photo that received 1.14 million instagram likes in 2016 was this picture of zebras and elephants sharing the bank of the Cuito River in Botswana. Cory Richards/NatGeo

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    The Baseline
    22 Dec 2016
    Is the GST endangered, as demonetization roils the economy?

    Is the GST endangered, as demonetization roils the economy?

    • One or the other?: The demonetization effort that has been working its way through the Indian economy since early November has endangered the Modi government's signature tax reform, the national GST. State government revenues have fallen anywhere from 25-40%, and has made the states reluctant to push the tax reform through, and risk losing more money. The West Bengal finance minister has called GST and demonetization a potential "dual shock" that his state may not be able to absorb. 

    • Nusli Wadia was removed as independent director of Tata Steel at the shareholder EGM held yesterday. While 100% of promoters voted in favor of his ouster, 17.5% of institutional shareholders and 15.5% of public shareholders voted against his ouster. Wadia has challenged his removal in court, and the court has said that any ruling it makes will override the results of the EGM. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Sun Pharma Advanced Research is sharply up today, on news that the US FDA has cleared the Halol plant of problems it had observed, paving the way for final approval of its New Drug Application for Xelpros. 

    • Photo of the day: For a moment, it looks like he is flying, as a man dives into the water of the Aegean sea, near Greece.

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    The Baseline
    21 Dec 2016
    Few bad apples?: Government asks for details on bank employees helping people launder money

    Few bad apples?: Government asks for details on bank employees helping people launder money

    • Another independent director - Darius Pandole of the Tata Global Beverages Limited - resigns from the board of Tata Global Beverages as Cyrus Mistry launches legal proceedings against Tata Sons. Mistry has filed a petition under the Companies Act of 2013,and cited the sections that deal with shareholder oppression and mismanagement, one of the sources said.

    • The government has asked the RBI for additional details on bank employees helping people launder money. The Finance Ministry is attempting to identify if the problem is "systemic" across banks or if its a case of a few bad apples. Bank managers - already feeling pressure both from customers over withdrawals and long queues, as well as the RBI and the government on verification of deposits - are now under scrutiny over employee behavior and bank processes.

    • Stock in spotlight: Vedanta, which has been a consistently bullish stock for the last three months, has been slapped with a $100 million settlement by a UK court, which it has to pay to the Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines.

    • Photo of the day:  Children in Portugal walk in a parade on a snowy day to collect food donations. Rafael Merchante/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    20 Dec 2016
    Mistry resigns from all Tata boards, plans lawsuit; government cuts EPF rate

    Mistry resigns from all Tata boards, plans lawsuit; government cuts EPF rate

    • With Tata Sons calling shareholder EGMs in five Tata Group companies to evict Mistry from the boards and Chairmanships, Mistry pre-emptively resignedfrom all the Tata boards and hinted in a letter to shareholders that he would continue battling Tata Sons - in court. Tata Sons said in response that the three EGMs at Tata Steel, Tata Chemicals and Tata Power are likely to go ahead as Tata Sons is also seeking to oust independent director Nusli Wadia, who had backed Mistry, from those group company boards. Tata stocks have moved up after his resignation, likely due to investors hoping that the PR damage inflicted by the public accusations and counter-accusations is over. 

    • The Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has lowered the interest rate on provident fund deposits to 8.65% for 2016-17, slightly lower than the 8.80% it paid in the previous year. The Opposition reacted to the rate cut with a barrage of criticism, saying that the move was "an attack on EPF... and hurts the common man".

    • Stock in spotlight: Prestige Estates, which is gaining on the back of strong Q2 results, and is among the top gainers. 

    • Photo of the day: Monkeys play on a motorbike, and one checks out its reflection in the mirror in Jaipur, India. Dominique Faget/Getty/AFP

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    The Baseline
    19 Dec 2016
    Indian businesses struggle post demonetization, Laurus Labs up 12% on debut

    Indian businesses struggle post demonetization, Laurus Labs up 12% on debut

    • 2017 is set to see very different trends from 2016, given the new incoming US administration, Fed rate hikes, rising oil prices, and in India, the demonetization impact. Economies will need to do some adjusting, and India, despite being better placed than other countries, will struggle for the next quarter due to the cash crunch. India needs a target 8% GDP growth to sustain full employment, and demonetization means that we are unlikely to hit that number this year. Businesses have seen credit dry up, as banks are still adjusting to the new environment, and many businesses across the country say that planned loans haven't come through, and as a result employees have stopped working. 

    • Laurus Labs opened today at Rs. 490, holding at that price for five minutes before falling to the Rs. 476 range.  The current price in the markets is approximately 12% over its issue price of Rs. 428.  

    • Stock in spotlight: ONGC is bullish, and the company has announced that its overseas arm has raised USD 1 billion through a dollar bonds issue to finance its acquisition of a 15% stake in Vankor, Russia's second biggest oilfield. The company has raised the money on "one of the lowest cost funding rates", according to the company. 

    • Photo of the day: The photograph of a tigress with her cub in India's Bandhavgarh national park was one of the most liked photographs on Instagram in 2016. The photographer says that after taking the picture, he checked the back of his camera "and cried". Steve Winter

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