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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    08 Jan 2017
    Research Reports for the week: January 1-6

    Research Reports for the week: January 1-6

    Analysts are ramping up for the results week coming up, but some research reports still landed, with PVR Cinemas in spotlight - with a BUY recommendation in light of a lower than expected demonetization effect. Additionally, the Hindi film Dangal boosted box office collections to approximately INR2.4 bn until 31 December 2016 in domestic sales, which is expected to drive up earnings for the Deember quarter. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2017-01-06CCL Products (India) Limited 329.0024.39%Buy264.50Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2017-01-04AIA Engineering Limited 1102.0013.23%Sell1270.00CD Equisearch
    2017-01-03PVR Limited 1429.0020.60%Buy1184.95Motilal Oswal
    2017-01-03Sintex Industries Limited 106.0029.11%Buy82.10Karvy
    2017-01-03Alkem Laboratories Limited 1989.0020.18%Buy1655.00Angel Broking 1x
    2017-01-02Manappuram Finance Limited 74.003.50%Buy71.50Axis Direct
    2017-01-02Rallis India Limited 250.0022.43%Buy204.20ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    1x
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    The Baseline
    06 Jan 2017
    MyMoney Series: 'Demonetization made me realize how privileged I am'

    MyMoney Series: 'Demonetization made me realize how privileged I am'

    This week on our MyMoney series, we talk to Sushmita Sundaram, a marketing/communications manager based out of Bangalore. Sushmita says that her biggest challenge has been planning her savings towards long-term goals.  

    "One of my goals for 2017 is to be more aware of my spending and saving habits. I definitely don't save as much as I could - every month, I end up saving about 10-20% of my take home salary, and it just sits in my savings account.

    One of the things I want to do this year is to set up a FD into which I automatically transfer 15% of my salary into. This is the only way I think I will build savings consistently. 

    My Dad is very conservative with money, which he has passed down to me. Like him, I tend to wait a long time or avoid making big purchases.

    Still - I think I am thrifty because I don't make big purchases, but in reality, I spend more recklessly on "smaller" but more frequent purchases. I spend a lot on entertainment and indulgences like eating out. All those Swiggy orders add up!  My Dad saved for things like property, his children's education, cars, and so on. I haven't set such goals for myself.

    When I want to buy something expensive, I  tell myself I am only allowed to buy the item after I have saved double the amount it costs. I'm very wary of loans or EMI payments, because I think my lack of organisation would lead to forgetting payments. I also worry I wouldn't be able to repay a loan. A smart thing my Dad did, was to save up the full amount required, but then choose to pay by EMI or get an interest free loan - he said having cash in hand was always a good thing, in case the full payment was ever needed. 

    Demonetization made me realise how privileged I am. I managed to remain cashless for weeks after November 9, paying for everything online and through the digital wallet. I only decided to withdraw money when my maid told me she preferred to be paid in cash.

    For a few weeks, I spent Rs. 130 on a roll in a coffee shop, instead of Rs. 30 from the roll wallah in the street, but now even he has a PayTM account. However, having spoken to a lot of these small business owners who primarily transact in cash, I know that they are still experiencing a sharp decline in business. The changing rules from the RBI don't help either. Not having access to my own money whenever I want is infuriating, and feels utterly unfair. It is worrisome to me that I can't withdraw a huge amount whenever I want, so I can only imagine how fearsome it is to people who don't have the social protections and financial cushion that I do.

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    The Baseline
    06 Jan 2017
    SpiceJet to order 92 new Boeing jetliners

    SpiceJet to order 92 new Boeing jetliners

    • Spicejet is expected to order over 92 jetliners (737 model), in its bid to expand its presence and increase the number of routes in the airline market. The deal would be a big addition to Spicejet's current 40-plane fleet, and could potentially be worth $10.1 billion for Boeing. Spicejet currently has 12% of the market share in Indian aviation, and the growth trajectory for Indian air traffic in the coming two years is high. It is estimated that crude prices will remain steady till FY18 at between $40-$60, keeping the price of aviation fuel - which contributes to 40% of airline operating costs - steady. 

    • The Indian government is set to overhaul spending on poverty programs in a way that has implications for social infrastructure, public oversight and rural consumer spending. The centre is working on ways to empower panchayats in rural spending - which would also make programs more local and accountable. This combined with the government's efforts to directly transfer social benefits to bank accounts, and to consider a Universal Basic Income, is set to transform how India has approached poverty alleviation for decades. Whether it is successful by 2019 - the government's target date to remove 10 million households out of poverty - remains to be seen. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Suzlon Energy, the renewable energy company has won a 105 MW wind project from Axis Energy Ltd. 

    • Photo of the day: A volunteer arranges chappatis for a celebration of Guru Gobind Singh's 350th birthday. Jaipal Singh/EPA

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    The Baseline
    05 Jan 2017
    97% of old notes have been returned to banks, officials say

    97% of old notes have been returned to banks, officials say

    • HDFC Bank is set to match the steep lending rate cuts by SBI and ICICI, by cutting its lending rate by an estimated 0.7-0.9%, according to sources. The bank will set its one-year MCLR at 8.15 percent, while the six-month MCLR will be reportedly set at 8 percent.

    • Nearly all the old Rs 500 and Rs 1000 notes - 97% of those in circulation - have now been deposited with banks. Banks have received Rs14.97 trillion ($220 billion) of the $15.4 trillion estimated to be in circulation as of 30 December,  

    • Stock in spotlight: Indian Oil Corporation, which has hit a new 52 week high today. The company's 15-million tonnes per annum Paradip refinery is set to achieve full utilization in March 2017, which would mean higher revenues, and an improved gross margin equivalent to RIL. The refinery was at 43% utilization end September 2016.

    • Photo of the day: A 'shop cat' in Hong Kong watches his owner eat lunch. Marcel Heijnen/Blue Lotus

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    The Baseline
    04 Jan 2017
    India's services shrink, Tata Power gets a new Chairman

    India's services shrink, Tata Power gets a new Chairman

    • India's services industry has shrunk for the second month in a row after demonetization, with a fall in orders. The contraction has been driven by the cash crunch across the country after the ban on old Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes. The business expectations sub-index among service providers has fallen to a 12-month low, suggesting that these businesses expect the crunch to continue for some time. A composite index that looks at both manufacturing and services has fallen to a three year low. 

    • Tata Sons has nominated S. Padmanabhan, the additional director on the Tata Power board, as its Chairman. In its announcement, Tata Sons emphasized that it has the power to nominate the Chairman as long as the company has the word 'Tata' as part of its company name. S Padmanabhan is a Tata loyalist who has been with the company for over 33 years. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Ramco Systems is seeing high volumes and gain today on the news of the company signing a multi-million dollar contract with the Panasonic Group of companies in Malaysia.

    • Photo of the day: Military officers rehearse for the Republic Day parade in New Delhi. Chandan Khanna/AFP/Getty Images

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    The Baseline
    03 Jan 2017
    Bank cut in lending rates boost hopes for spending recovery

    Bank cut in lending rates boost hopes for spending recovery

    • Cuts in the lending rates across the board by banks is set to lower borrowing cost for customers, in a boost to auto and real estate, both of which have been reeling after demonetization. ICICI Bank cut its rate by 0.90%, SBI by 0.70%, and other banks cut rates at levels ranging from 0.15-0.70%.A revival in lending and credit could boost the economy amid worries that people are curbing back spending towards a new, lower normal, as manufacturing contracts overall and new investment falls.

    • The government has said that service charge is not mandatory for customers to pay in hotels and restaurants; restauranters have responded that this will impact the earnings of restaurant employees, who depend on the service charge for their pay. The Association has said that diners dissatisfied with their dining experience can have the service charges waived off their bill.

    • The BSE has detected unusual trading volumes for Hindustan Copper and the shipping company Dredging Corporation, and has sought an explanation from the firms.  

    • Stock in spotlight: Suven LifeSciences, which has landed two new patents from Eurasia and Norway for the treatment of degenerative diseases including Alzheimer's, Parkinsons and schizophrenia. 

    • Photo of the day: Seven year old Ashima plays with her unusual-colored pet chick in Mumbai. Shailesh Andrade/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    02 Jan 2017
    Not a happy new year for Bajaj Auto: December sales take a hit

    Not a happy new year for Bajaj Auto: December sales take a hit

    • After the rise in deposits post demonetization, the State Bank of India said on Sunday that it has cut its lending rates by 90 basis points for maturities ranging from overnight to three-years. State Bank of Travancore had also cut its rates on Friday. The marginal cost of funds-based lending rate (MCLR) at SBI has fallen to 7.75 percent from 8.65 percent, while three-year loan rates will now be 8.15 percent from 9.05 percent previously. This will bring down the cost of auto and home loans substantially. 

    • Not pretty numbers: Bajaj Autoreleased its sales figures for the month of December 2016, which have fallen across the board compared to the previous year. Domestic commercial vehicle and motorcycle sales are down 44% and 11% respectively; exports are down 49% and 24% for these segments. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Intense Technologies Ltd, which has hit a new 52 week high today. 

    • Photo of the day: A man lights firecrackers in Mumbai during the New Year's Eve celebrations. Rafiq Maqbool/AP

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    The Baseline
    01 Jan 2017
    Research Report Summary: December 23-31

    Research Report Summary: December 23-31

    Happy new year - here is  the Research reports summary for the last week of 2016! It looks likePetronet LNG has made an impression with analysts, with three recommendation upgrades, with brokers pointing out that the recent fall in the company's stock prices is a buying opportunity. However, that is changing fast. 

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2016-12-30Bharat Forge Limited 943.004.06%NEUT.906.20HDFC Securities 3x
    2016-12-30Persistent Systems Limited 725.0017.92%Buy614.80ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other2x
    2x
    2016-12-30KEI Industries Limited 153.0023.39%Buy124.00Angel Broking
    2016-12-29The Karnataka Bank Limited 140.0025.22%Buy111.80Axis Direct
    2016-12-29WIM PLAST LTD. --%-1475.00Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-12-28National Stock Exchange of I.. --%--HDFC Securities
    2016-12-28J.Kumar Infraprojects Limited 306.0049.20%Buy205.10CD Equisearch
    2016-12-28Indian Bank 275.0024.60%Buy220.70ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-12-28Mahanagar Gas Limited 777.00-%-785.45ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2016-12-27Gateway Distriparks Limited 313.0028.28%Buy244.00Motilal Oswal
    2016-12-27JK Cement Limited 767.006.53%Buy720.00Motilal Oswal 1x
    1x
    2016-12-27MOLD-TEK TECHNOLOGIES LTD. --%-43.80Nirmal Bang Institutional
    2016-12-26Petronet LNG Limited 411.0011.78%Buy367.70Motilal Oswal 3x
    1x
    2016-12-26Jagran Prakashan Limited 195.008.76%Buy179.30Axis Direct 1x
    2016-12-26ION EXCHANGE (INDIA) LTD. 539.0081.54%Buy296.90Ventura
    2016-12-26Cipla Limited 700.0023.20%Buy568.20Nirmal Bang Institutional 1x
    2x
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    The Baseline
    30 Dec 2016
    Tata Sons hopes to silence Mistry with legal notices

    Tata Sons hopes to silence Mistry with legal notices

    • Tata Sons, in a continued scramble to contain the damage Mistry may inflict,served the ex-Chairman a second legal notice, asking him to return all documents related to Tata Sons and the Tata group of companies, and also sign a letter pledging not to disclose confidential information on the company to "affiliates, relatives or friends/family."

    • The RBI has issued another warning, saying that Indian banks are in a weakened state, with low profitability, declining asset quality and liquidity in funds. The Central Bank noted that the bad loan ratio could climb to 9.8% by March, and worsen to close to even 12% a year after that if the situation continues. In the meantime, the Prime Minister has insisted that demonetization will boost the economy and strengthen the banking sector as well over the long-term. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Coromandel International, which has hit a new 52 week high today. The company's shift to higher product grades in its fertilizer business is set to improve margins, according to Axis Direct, which released a buy report for the company in early December. 

    • Photo of the day: A man walks through tea gardens in the rain, in Munnar, Kerala. Sanjay Baid/EPA

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    The Baseline
    29 Dec 2016
    NSE applies for its much anticipated IPO, discloses possible violations

    NSE applies for its much anticipated IPO, discloses possible violations

    • NSE applied for its much-anticipated IPO on Wednesday, making mandatory disclosures that some brokers had gained unfair access to its servers, with some NSE employees potentially having conspired to provide such access. The exchange also said its trading systems may have been "prone to manipulation." The disclosures may impact the enthusiasm around its $1 billion IPO, which is potentially the biggest IPO in the last six years.  

    • The government has cleared a draft ordinance making it illegal to hold on to old notes - this would become a criminal offence with a fine of Rs. 10,000. The ordinance comes into effect when passed by President Pranab Mukherjee. The last date for exchanging demonetised notes is this Friday, following which people can deposit old notes only with the RBI up to March 31st next year. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Kalpataru Power Transmission, whose Q2FY17 had seen sales up 19.6% yoy, and profit ahead of estimates and up 21.7% yoy. The company announced today new orders worth over Rs. 1,457 crore through its listed subsidiary, JMC Projects.  

    • Photo of the day: Taking a run during sunrise, in San Sebastian, Spain. Javier Etxezarreta/EPA

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