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    The Baseline

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    The Baseline
    16 Jan 2017
    After Indian IT, Trump now targets Indian Pharma

    After Indian IT, Trump now targets Indian Pharma

    On Wednesday, during Donald Trump's first news conference in a while, the incoming US President targeted the international pharma industry, with specific attention given to pharma imports into the US. "We’ve got to get our drug industry back," he said during the conference, "Our drug industry has been disastrous..they supply our drugs, but they don’t make them here, to a large extent." 

    Most drug imports in the US are for low-cost generic drugs, and three-fifths of such drugs are from India. The leaders in exporting pharmaceuticals in key categories - for seizures, cardiac disease, and diabetes - to the United States are three Indian companies: Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Aurobindo Pharma, and Cipla.

    Trump has already made it clear that he is going to act against the IT service model of core Indian firms such as Infosys and TCS. By promising tightening or an outright ban on H1B visas, as well as tariffs on outsourcing, he has clouded the outlook for these IT firms, as they prepare for immediate executive actions once he takes office. 'Bringing jobs back' has been a key refrain of Trump during the election, and it remains to be seen how much this talk will translate into serious curbs agains Indian IT, and now generic Indian pharma. 

    What might limit the Trump administration is however, cost. The cost of medication in the US has spiralled up in the last decade - in 2015 list prices of drugs increased by over 12% in the US according to the IMS, a trend that includes various life-saving drugs. Much of the exports to the US from Indian companies are generics which provide competition to brand-name drugs in the United States and keep costs low for critical medication. About 30% of all USFDA-approved drugs now belong to India generic companies. Trade curbs is near-certain to bring up the cost of medication for Americans. 

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    The Baseline
    16 Jan 2017
    Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) IPO to launch next week

    Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) IPO to launch next week

    • The Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) IPO will launch next week from January 23 - 25, and is expected to raise as much as Rs. 1,250 crore for its investors, based on the indicative price range for the sale announced on Monday.The IPO will see  BSE's shareholders selling a total of 15.4 million shares, and will value the stock exchange - which has over 5,500 listed companies - at $645 million. The Singapore Exchange by comparison - which has over 774 listed companies - is valued at over $5.5 billion. 

    • The last GST meeting before Budget: The Centre and the states will meet today to settle the question of sharing of administrative powers under the goods and services tax (GST).The meeting - scheduled to happen at noon -is the last before the Union budget. It is expected to announce the GST rollout date, which initially planned for April 1 2017, is likely to miss that deadline. 

    • Stock in spotlight: NTPC, which has announced commercial operation for the first 250W unit of its Thermal Power Project in Nabinagar, Bihar. The plant is expected to beef up power availability for the state. The company has hit a new 52 week high this past week. 

    • Photo of the day: A buffalo hits a man during a traditional buffalo fight held as part of Magh Bihu celebrations in Assam. Anupam Nath/AP

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    The Baseline
    15 Jan 2017
    Research reports for the week - Jan 08 - Jan 13

    Research reports for the week - Jan 08 - Jan 13

    20 new research reports have landed this week. Analyst Stockpick of the week is Tata Motors, which has seen three BUY recommendations and a target price upgrade over the past few week.  Tata Motors was one of the few companies reporting a rise in sales post demonetization, showing a 2 per cent increase in total sales at 40,944 units in December as against 39,973 units sold in the year-ago period

    DateStockTargetUpside
    (%)
    TypeCMPBrokerChange in
    past 6M
    2017-01-13Tata Consultancy Services Li.. 1956.0013.14%Sell2252.00Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other5x
    2017-01-13Infosys Limited 1100.0012.80%Buy975.15Reliance Securities and 1 other1x
    1x
    2017-01-13Bajaj Corp Limited 481.0025.23%Buy384.10Reliance Securities 1x
    2017-01-13Shree Pushkar Chemicals & Fe.. 230.0021.47%Buy189.35ICICI Securities Limited
    2017-01-12Cyient Limited 565.0012.64%Buy501.60Reliance Securities 1x
    2x
    2017-01-12Linc Pen & Plastics Limited 300.0012.99%Buy265.50ICICI Securities Limited 1x
    2017-01-11Sobha Limited 312.0018.18%Buy264.00Axis Direct
    2017-01-11IndusInd Bank Limited 1470.0021.09%Buy1213.95Nirmal Bang Institutional and 1 other1x
    2017-01-10Tata Motors Limited 696.0035.24%Buy514.65Motilal Oswal 3x
    3x
    2017-01-10Aurobindo Pharma Limited 1100.0056.13%Buy704.55ICICI Securities Limited and 1 other1x
    2017-01-10Shriram Transport Finance Co.. 1096.0014.78%ACC.954.85CD Equisearch 3x
    2017-01-09Ashok Leyland Limited 94.0011.11%Buy84.60Axis Direct 2x
    2x
    2017-01-09Bata India Limited --%-476.80Nirmal Bang Institutional 2x
    1x
    2017-01-09Kesoram Industries Limited 185.0031.35%Buy140.85ICICI Securities Limited
    1
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    The Baseline
    13 Jan 2017
    Infosys posts better than average result, but Donald Trump affects guidance

    Infosys posts better than average result, but Donald Trump affects guidance

    • Infosys posts better than expected returns, but lowers guidance: Infosys announced a higher than expected 7% percent increase in net profits for the December quarter, but pared its revenue guidance for the entire FY17, saying that it expected to grow between 8.4% - 8.8%. The earlier guidance had ranged between 8% - 9%. The IT major may be attributing some downside risk to incoming President Trump, who has promised to cancel the H1B visa program and tax international goods and services.  

    • After months of swirling rumors on the possibilities of the future Tata Sons Chairman, the holding company named long-time Tata insider Natarajan Chandrasekaran - CEO of TCS - as the new Chairman. This is the kind of nomination unlikely to rock the boat or try to upend old rules, and Tata Sons clearly hopes to calm markets after the rocky exit of Cyrus Mistry. The questions on corporate governance and the control of the Tata Trusts have gone unanswered, as these issues are being challenged in various court cases. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Cadila Healthcare, which has reached an agreement with Upsher-Smith that allows it to market a generic version of Qudexy XR tablets in the US. 

    • Photo of the day: Siblings dressed as river goddesses at the Magh Mela in Allahabad. Rajesh Kumar Singh/AP

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    The Baseline
    12 Jan 2017
    Amazon Canada removes India-flag doormats from its website

    Amazon Canada removes India-flag doormats from its website

    • Amazon removed doormats resembling the Indian flag from its Canadian website on Wednesday, after an Indian government threat to rescind visas of the U.S. company's employees if they did not stop selling the product. external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj said on Twitter. "They must withdraw all products insulting our national flag immediately."

    • Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data reveals that the currency in circulation and available to users has continued to shrink. In the first week of January currency available fell by 4.3%, with the intro of new notes unable to so far boost the supply to earlier levels. The amount of currency in circulation has come down from Rs 17,97,700 crore in November to Rs 8,98,020 in January. 

    • Stock in spotlight: APL Apollo Tubes hit a lifetime high today after winning two new design patents. 

    • Photo of the day: Always room for chai - a man buys a cup of tea while he stands guard near barbed wire outside a court. Beawiharta/Reuters

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    The Baseline
    11 Jan 2017
    A Turbulent Year: Best Books on Investing for 2017

    A Turbulent Year: Best Books on Investing for 2017

    2017, analysts predict, is going to take the ups and downs of 2016 and throw them into a blender. The incoming Trump administration in the US is likely to upend long-established global trade equations, as the new President comes in with a different set of friends and foes. We will be seeing a US President who is the friendliest towards Russia in decades, anti-trade and pro-tariffs, antagonistic towards China, and lukewarm at best and hostile at worst to long-standing agreements like NAFTA and NATO. And is also on social media a lot, issuingboth angry threats and praise from his twitter feed. 

    In continental Europe, the impact of Brexit will begin to have its effects as the EU starts acting to push Britain out of the Union. In China, new tensions may be emerging between the country and neighbors like Taiwan, while India is recovering from the effects of demonetization, and prepares to implement the GST. 

    The phrase, 'may you live in interesting times' is rarely more than a mixed blessing. 2017 looks to be that kind of time, and investors preparing for turbulent markets will be looking for counsel and sage advice. What are the best investing books for times like this? We compiled a list of five, consisting of old stand-bys and some new entrants. 

    5) THE DHANDHO INVESTOR, Mohnish Pabrai. Finally an investing book from India worth its salt, and a compelling read. Dhandho is the strategy, Pabrai says, used by the Patels in Gujarat to maximize their returns on their earnings. His advice focuses on identifying a select few, good companies when others are selling them. His advice on making a few BIG investments on companies that are unfairly under-valued due to bad news or sharp market dips, may be especially useful for stock investing in India post-demonetization.

    4) ONE UP ON WALL STREET, Peter Lynch. Peter Lynch's book is highly tailored to the small, individual investor willing to do their homework rather than play the ups and downs of the market. He details out many useful strategies for investors to do their homework on stocks and identify the multi-baggers that will give them good returns, regardless of the health of the overall stock market.It's a good, sobering reminder that in the stock market, as anywhere else, it's hard work that pays off. 

    3)STOCKS FOR THE LONG RUN, Jeremy Siegel.  Siegel teaches at Wharton, and makes the case for investing not for the day or the week but for the long run, which he argues results in stocks giving you returns beating all other assets, and protecting against inflation. Useful advice for a period where the short-term may be up and down, but the longer outlook more stable.

    2)THE BROKE AND BEAUTIFUL LIFE, Stefani O'Connor is more personal finance than investing, but is a useful and practical book for young investors, one that provides advice in making smarter decisions and setting effective budget goals. It helps for both tighter budgets and effective financial planning, especially during unpredictable income shifts. 

    1)IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE, Robert Shiller: This may be THE book for 2017, since it argues that stock markets can go both irrationally high and irrationally low at times of high emotion and panic. Shiller, who won a Nobel Prize in 2013, argues that what drives stock prices is not an understanding of future dividends and growth, but psychology. Shiller's advice is good to remember when you are staring at a market crash or a full speed rise fuelled by rumor and headlines.

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    The Baseline
    11 Jan 2017
    The biggest sales drop in 16 years, says auto industry

    The biggest sales drop in 16 years, says auto industry

    • The biggest sales drop in 16 years: It looks like auto as an industry has taken the brunt of demonetization. As companies released their sales figures for December, it became clear that the drop has been substantial.  Sales fell 18.66 percent in December to 1.2 million units, the biggest monthly drop since the same month in 2000, according to the  Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Few categories such as Maruti's SUVs logged an increase in sales. The biggest overall drop has been in small towns and rural areas, where cash dominates. 

    • The telecom war intensified today with Airtel turning on TRAI, accusing it of deliberately favoring Reliance's Jio by remaining a mute spectator on Jio's "predatory pricing" and the extension of the free plans. Telecom players are concerned about Mukesh Ambani's deep cash kitty, with Reliance enriched by deep gas and oil refining margins which allows Ambani to dole out freebies, drawing subscribers away from the competition. TRAI had initially said that Jio would have to end its  free welcome offers by 3 December as inaugural offers are only valid for 90 days. However, TRAI gave Jio a nod for its Happy New Year plan which separately extended free offers till March 2017.  There have been recent suggestions from Reliance that they may extend the free offers even further, beyond March. 

    • Stock in spotlight: BPCL. The stock is trending up in markets, with a 79% gain from its 52 week low. The company's expansion in Kochi, Numaligarh and improvements in Bina is expected to strengthen a GRM that is already the most efficient in the industry.

    • Photo of the day: A four month old tiger owned by a travelling circus in Germany is taken for a walk. Jens Buttner/AFP/Getty

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    The Baseline
    10 Jan 2017

    Biocon's $7 billion bet

    Last week, Biocon and Mylan announced successful trials for their biosimilar trastuzumab. The two companies have been working together to jointly develop a biosimilar trastuzumab, which treats metastatic breast cancer. The successful trials for the product came as part of a Heritage study, which showed biosimilar trastuzumab working as well as the branded trastuzumab product Herceptin sold by Roche. 

    Biocon-Mylan is an early filer for the trastuzumab biosimilar in the EU and US markets. Four other players (excluding Biocon) are also  in advanced stages to develop the biosimilar, raising the possibility of intense competition for the market. But Herceptin is a US$7bn drug globally and Biocon-Mylan is an early filer, making a quick payoff here pretty likely - when asked about the potential, Julie Knell, spokesperson for Mylan, said that  their product "has the potential to be the first submission of..biosimilar trastuzumab in the US."

    A new drug from Roche

    However, recent developments in metastatic breast cancer treatment have queered the field. Roche is conducting an Aphinity trial for a combination drug for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer, which combines a synthetic compound pertuzumab (Perjeta) with the older Herceptin - trastuzumab. The trial is likely to be successful - early data points from the trial suggest that the incidence of invasive disease for patients enrolled in the trial have been lower than expected. Roche has also recently received a boost when the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) in the UK published its final guidance this week on January 3, which has endorsed the use of Perjeta (pertuzumab), in combination with trastuzumab and chemotherapy. 

    What does this mean for Biocon's market?

    Despite the possibility that Biocon and Mylan could get 180-day exclusivity with this drug in the US as first filer (biosimilar trastuzumab is already being sold in developing country markets including India), the likely success of the combination drug trials and the launch of Roche's new combination drug will limit the market size for the biosimilar.

    The chances are high that 1) Roche will subsidize Herceptin, now that it has a new, expensive drug in the market to help it recoup research costs and profits. This will limit the success of Biocon-Mylan's biosimilar trastuzumab and bring sales down. 

    2) The treatment capacity of the new combination drug will set a new bar for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer, and demand for Herceptin and its biosimilars will shrink, reducing the overall market. Roche will remain the dominant player for this treatment until a new better alternative emerges. How this impacts Biocon's outlook for FY17 and FY18 remains to be seen, as the company updates its forecasts. 

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    The Baseline
    10 Jan 2017
    Binny Bansal out as Flipkart CEO, Tiger Global's Krishnamurthy in

    Binny Bansal out as Flipkart CEO, Tiger Global's Krishnamurthy in

    • The BSE wants to challenge global stock exchanges for dominance with a new, near-24 hour International Exchange. The exchange will directly compete with financial hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong, through tech investments and "near 24-hour trading", remaining open for 22 hours. CEO Ashishkumar Chauhan said the new bourse, which has been inaugurated in Gujarat's Finance Tec-City, would offer a response time of four microseconds, making it "one of the fastest, if not the fastest, exchanges in the world".

    • A shakeup has resulted in the sidelining of the Bansals at e-commerce giant Flipkart. Kalyan Krishnamurthy, a former managing director of Tiger Global who had joined Flipkart in June 2015, was named the new CEO, and current CEO Binny Bansal has been named to a new role of group CEO. While Flipkart positioned the group CEO role to journalists as a move upward for Binny Bansal, sources internally said that Bansal saw the role as a clear signal that he was having core operational responsibilities taken away, and being handed to Tiger. 

    • Stock in spotlight: Ramco Systems, a company that builds cloud software for enterprises, and has signed new deals with Panasonic and the US firm G&D Integrated. 

    • Photo of the day: Hong Kong badminton player Cheung Ngan Yi reacts after losing a point against Indian badminton player Saina Nehwal during the women's singles at a Premier Badminton League (PBL) in Bangalore. Nehwal won the match 9-11, 11-5, 11-3. Aijaz Rahi/AP

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    The Baseline
    09 Jan 2017
    Urjit Patel summoned by Parliamentary Committee

    Urjit Patel summoned by Parliamentary Committee

    • A parliamentary committee is examining the government's decision to scrap high-value bank notes, and has sent the country's central bank governor a list of questions on the demonetisation process. It has asked him to appear before it on Jan. 20. In the meantime, PM Modi made a public speech saying that the 'high priests of black money' have opposed him on demonetization. 

    • Maruti Suzuki reported its sales numbers for December today, which showed a marginal decline in sales by 0.4% compared to December last year, as customers postpone purchases amid the cash crunch. The biggest drop was in the sales of Altos and Wagon Rs, while sales of SUVs, more than doubled compared to last December.

    • Stock in spotlight: BEML tops the gainer stocks today, up 15.8% since market open. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has given in-principal approval for the disinvestment of 26 per cent of the government's 54.03 per cent equity stake in the company. 

    • Photo of the day: A life size model of a dinosaur covered in snow in Romania. Vadim Ghirda/AP

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